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Middle Tenn. St. vs Evansville Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 85-66
Projected total 150.8
Final 73-68
27-20 46-48
Position#189
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game81.0
Middle Tenn. St. 🏆
USA
Vs
95%
■ MIDD 95%■ EVAN 5%
Pythia win probability
Evansville
USA
Position#188
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game73.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Middle Tenn. St. v Evansville
10 Nov 2026
MIDD73
EVAN68
13 Nov 2024
MIDD80
EVAN63
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Middle Tenn. St. faces Evansville on 10 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the Pythia model names the home team as the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win because of a 1-1 record and a 81.0 points per game average that matches their 81.0 points allowed, while Evansville sits at 2-0 with 79.0 points per game and 73.0 allowed. Middle Tenn. St. has a perfect 1-0 home record, scoring 117.0 and allowing 73.0, and has won three of its last five games, including a 117-73 home victory over Fisk, whereas Evansville has won three of five, with recent wins over Southern Indiana and Indiana-Kokomo but a loss to Northern Iowa. Their head-to-head history shows Middle Tenn. St. winning both meetings, most recently 77-72 on 12 November 2025. Pythia projects a 85-66 score, a 150.8 total, and a 7.0-point home line that the home team covers 86% of the time; the 143.5 total has a 67% over probability, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. The game ends with Middle Tenn. St. holding a 7-point advantage in the spread.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Middle Tenn. St. winWon
94.5%fair 1.06
Best odds1.29
Implied73.1%
Edge+21.5pp
Evansville winLost
5.5%fair 18.30
Best odds3.72
Implied26.9%
Edge-21.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Middle Tenn. St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Kentucky
#151
L
80-82
80
82
-2
A15/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
70-78
70
78
-8
A19/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H21/02
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H27/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
86-85 OT
86
85
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A06/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
75-63
75
63
+12
A07/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
69-80
69
80
-11
A12/03
NCAA
Fisk
#461
W
117-73
117
73
+44
H02/11
NCAA
Kansas
#21
L
45-89
45
89
-44
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-42
43-40
32-44
38-34
31-20
47-46
34-26
43-41
36-42
40-34
33-34
40-33
37-27
38-36
25-39
44-41
52-32
65-41
14-36
31-53
152.0Avg total
77.0Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)81.081.0162.0+0.050%
Season at home (1)117.073.0190.0+44.0100%
Season away (1)45.089.0134.0-44.00%
Last 10 (10)77.075.0152.0+2.060%
Last 5 (5)75.874.4150.2+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)66.978.5145.4-11.630%
vs Similar ◀ (14)74.771.8146.5+2.957%
vs Weaker (5)88.075.6163.6+12.460%
This opponent (Evansville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
60-86
60
86
-26
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
46-84
46
84
-38
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
75-88
75
88
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
64-98
64
98
-34
A26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
80-79
80
79
+1
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
67-81
67
81
-14
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
59-68
59
68
-9
A06/03
NCAA
Indiana-Kokomo
#347
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#318
W
78-76 OT
78
76
+2
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-32
43-48
32-43
28-43
23-38
23-46
36-37
39-51
29-44
35-54
34-42
46-37
27-38
40-43
36-35
23-33
34-42
46-28
30-35
39-34
150.7Avg total
69.7Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Season at home (2)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)69.781.0150.7-11.340%
Last 5 (5)72.874.8147.6-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (29)66.678.2144.7-11.621%
vs Similar ◀no games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
77.6%
Under 138.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Under 143.5
Over 143.5
67.2%
@ 1.87+17.2pp
Under 143.5
32.8%
@ 1.87-17.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
55.4%
Under 148.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Middle Tenn. St. total 71.5Actual: Middle Tenn. St. over 71.5
Over 71.5
91.0%
Under 71.5
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middle Tenn. St. total 75.5 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. under 75.5
Over 75.5
82.6%
@ 1.85+31.8pp
Under 75.5
17.4%
@ 1.91-31.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Middle Tenn. St. total 79.5Actual: Middle Tenn. St. under 79.5
Over 79.5
70.3%
Under 79.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Evansville total 64Actual: Evansville over 64
Over 64
58.0%
Under 64
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Evansville total 68 · main linePush
Over 68
41.4%
@ 1.85-8.6pp
Under 68
58.6%
@ 1.85+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Evansville total 72Actual: Evansville under 72
Over 72
26.5%
Under 72
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Middle Tenn. St. -10Actual: Evansville +10
MIDD -10
78.7%
EVAN +10
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
No market prices yet.
EVAN
No market prices yet.
Spread Middle Tenn. St. -7 · main lineActual: Evansville +7
MIDD -7
85.7%
@ 1.81+34.5pp
EVAN +7
14.3%
@ 1.90-34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
Marathon Be
1.81
EVAN
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Middle Tenn. St. -4Actual: Middle Tenn. St. -4
MIDD -4
91.0%
EVAN +4
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
MIDD
No market prices yet.
EVAN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: -6.0-6.02nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: -5.5-5.5
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: -6.0-6.02nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: -5.5-5.5
Middle Tenn. St.Evansville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Middle Tenn. St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Kentucky
#151
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A15/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A19/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
31-20
31
20
+11
H21/02
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
34-26
34
26
+8
H27/02
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A06/03
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A07/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Fisk
#461
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H02/11
NCAA
Kansas
#21
L
14-36
14
36
-22
A07/11
NCAA
67.3Avg total
33.1Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)34.934.969.7+0.040%47%
Last 30 at home (16)35.734.269.9+1.544%50%
Last 30 away (14)33.935.669.6-1.736%43%
Last 10 (10)33.134.267.3-1.140%40%
Last 5 (5)32.233.665.8-1.440%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)32.838.271.0-5.420%50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)34.633.868.4+0.836%43%
vs Weaker (5)40.831.272.0+9.6100%60%
This opponent (Evansville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EvansvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A26/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
27-38
27
38
-11
H01/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A06/03
NCAA
Indiana-Kokomo
#347
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H03/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#318
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H08/11
NCAA
71.2Avg total
32.6Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)30.737.067.7-6.423%53%
Last 30 at home (16)30.937.468.4-6.519%56%
Last 30 away (14)30.436.666.9-6.229%50%
Last 10 (10)32.638.671.2-6.020%70%
Last 5 (5)32.238.470.6-6.220%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (29)30.636.967.4-6.324%52%
vs Similar ◀no games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Middle Tenn. St.) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Middle Tenn. St. -4 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. -4
MIDD -4
no forecast
@ 1.83
EVAN +4
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Middle Tenn. St. 1st half total 36 · main lineActual: Middle Tenn. St. under 36
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Middle Tenn. St. (regulation)
MIDD
no forecast
@ 1.41
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
EVAN
no forecast
@ 3.12

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 2 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Middle Tenn. St. -785.7%1.81
Marathon Bet
1.81		----+34.5ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. -6.586.0%1.77
Marathon Bet
1.77		----+33.4ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. -687.7%1.70
Marathon Bet
1.70		----+33.1ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. -7.584.0%1.80
1xBet
1.80		----+32.5ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. over 75.582.6%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80		---+31.8ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. over 76.579.9%1.91
WilliamHill
1.91		----+31.3ppLost
Middle Tenn. St. (regulation)93.6%1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30		----+24.0ppWon
Middle Tenn. St. win94.5%1.28
WilliamHill
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.26		--+21.5ppWon
Overtime: no98.7%1.04
WilliamHill
1.04		----+8.1pp-
Middle Tenn. St. -5.587.9%1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64		-----Lost
Over 141.571.6%1.68
Marathon Bet
1.68		-----Lost
Over 14271.0%1.72
Marathon Bet
1.72		-----Lost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Middle Tenn. St. wins
0
Evansville wins
DateGameScore
13/11/25Evansville v Middle Tenn. St.72-77
14/11/24Middle Tenn. St. v Evansville80-63
Middle Tenn. St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AKansas45-89
02/11/26HFisk117-73
12/03/26ALouisiana Tech69-80
07/03/26AMissouri State75-63
06/03/26AFlorida International73-67
28/02/26HNew Mexico State86-85 OT
27/02/26HUTEP77-67
21/02/26HDelaware78-66
19/02/26ASam Houston St.70-78
15/02/26AWestern Kentucky80-82
Evansvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HSouthern Indiana78-76 OT
03/11/26HIndiana-Kokomo80-70
06/03/26ANorthern Iowa59-68
01/03/26HSouthern Illinois67-81
28/02/26HValparaiso80-79
26/02/26ABelmont64-98
21/02/26AMurray State75-88
19/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)46-84
13/02/26ASouthern Illinois60-86
10/02/26HIllinois State88-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Middle Tenn. St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game81.0117.045.0
Allowed / game81.073.089.0
Point differential+0.0+44.0-44.0
Avg total162.0190.0134.0
Over 143.550%100%0%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Evansville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game79.079.0-
Allowed / game73.073.0-
Point differential+6.0+6.0-
Avg total152.0152.0-
Over 143.5100%100%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %50%50%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida International220100%93.066.5+26.5
2 Kennesaw State330100%91.768.3+23.3
3 Missouri State220100%83.561.0+22.5
4 Western Kentucky32167%86.367.7+18.7
5 Louisiana Tech32167%70.360.7+9.7
6 Jacksonville State21150%101.571.0+30.5
7 Delaware21150%84.558.5+26.0
8 Liberty21150%85.063.0+22.0
9 Sam Houston St.21150%88.077.5+10.5
10 UTEP21150%77.572.0+5.5
11 Middle Tenn. St.21150%81.081.0+0.0
12 New Mexico State21150%70.587.5-17.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake220100%88.058.0+30.0
2 Illinois (Chi.)330100%85.758.3+27.3
3 Murray State220100%93.567.5+26.0
4 Belmont220100%73.549.5+24.0
5 Valparaiso220100%81.569.0+12.5
6 Evansville220100%79.073.0+6.0
7 Southern Illinois21150%87.570.0+17.5
8 Northern Iowa21150%94.584.0+10.5
9 Indiana State21150%69.572.0-2.5
10 Illinois State31233%81.373.7+7.7
11 Bradley31233%60.755.3+5.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Middle Tenn. St.274673
Evansville204868
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