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Evansville vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 80-79
34-42 46-37
Position#362
Record6-23
FormWLLLL
Points / game66.8
Allowed / game76.5
vs
Position#170
Record17-13
FormLWWWW
Points / game71.7
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Evansville v Valparaiso
28 Feb 2026
EVAN80
VALP79
16 Feb 2025
EVAN79
VALP69
17 Jan 2024
EVAN78
VALP75
14 Jan 2023
EVAN69
VALP76
19 Feb 2022
EVAN56
VALP72
01 Feb 2021
EVAN58
VALP51
31 Jan 2021
EVAN70
VALP52
04 Jan 2020
EVAN79
VALP81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Evansville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EvansvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
49-76
49
76
-27
A21/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
78-82
78
82
-4
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A31/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
63-84
63
84
-21
H04/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
63-70 OT
63
70
-7
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
60-86
60
86
-26
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
46-84
46
84
-38
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
75-88
75
88
-13
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
64-98
64
98
-34
A26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
20-34
29-42
36-30
42-52
21-41
34-30
29-46
34-38
26-28
32-30
45-32
43-48
32-43
28-43
23-38
23-46
36-37
39-51
29-44
35-54
146.0Avg total
64.1Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)66.876.5143.3-9.721%
Season at home (15)69.774.5144.1-4.827%
Season away (14)63.778.7142.4-15.014%
Last 10 (10)64.181.9146.0-17.810%
Last 5 (5)66.687.2153.8-20.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)65.178.4143.5-13.414%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)84.048.5132.5+35.5100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#25
L
77-78
77
78
-1
H29/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-72 OT
76
72
+4
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
65-72
65
72
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
70-63 OT
70
63
+7
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A10/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
64-86
64
86
-22
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-75
76
75
+1
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-42
39-36
27-37
39-29
33-40
32-32
28-26
30-32
38-40
43-36
34-34
30-52
49-43
27-32
35-35
44-37
31-29
40-38
36-37
38-34
146.5Avg total
73.3Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)71.770.9142.5+0.857%
Season at home (17)72.465.1137.5+7.376%
Season away (13)70.778.4149.1-7.731%
Last 10 (10)73.373.2146.5+0.170%
Last 5 (5)72.874.2147.0-1.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)66.072.1138.1-6.140%
vs Similar (14)73.174.3147.4-1.157%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)77.760.8138.5+16.883%
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -7.6-7.61st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -9.5-9.52nd half: +0.4+0.4
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -7.6-7.61st half: -1.4-1.42nd half2nd half: -9.5-9.52nd half: +0.4+0.4
EvansvilleValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
EvansvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
20-34
20
34
-14
A21/01
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
21-41
21
41
-20
A31/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H04/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
26-28
26
28
-2
A07/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H10/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H19/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A21/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
29-44
29
44
-15
A26/02
NCAA
67.0Avg total
29.7Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.736.166.8-5.427%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.135.367.3-3.233%-
Last 30 away (15)29.336.966.2-7.520%-
Last 10 (10)29.737.367.0-7.620%-
Last 5 (5)33.038.871.8-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)29.936.866.8-6.921%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)41.525.567.0+16.0100%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Belmont
#25
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
27-37
27
37
-10
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A10/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A13/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H15/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H19/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H26/02
NCAA
71.2Avg total
34.9Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.232.465.6+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.729.464.1+5.365%-
Last 30 away (13)31.336.267.5-4.923%-
Last 10 (10)34.936.371.2-1.430%-
Last 5 (5)37.035.672.6+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)31.833.064.8-1.240%-
vs Similar (14)33.633.967.5-0.443%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)34.827.762.5+7.267%-
This opponent (Evansville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Evansville wins
6
Valparaiso wins
Evansvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26ABelmont64-98
21/02/26AMurray State75-88
19/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)46-84
13/02/26ASouthern Illinois60-86
10/02/26HIllinois State88-80
07/02/26AValparaiso63-70 OT
04/02/26HIndiana State63-84
31/01/26ANorthern Iowa55-71
29/01/26ADrake78-82
21/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)49-76
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26HDrake74-71
21/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)71-67
19/02/26HBradley79-72
15/02/26HIndiana State76-75
13/02/26AIllinois State64-86
10/02/26ADrake81-76
07/02/26HEvansville70-63 OT
04/02/26ABradley65-72
31/01/26AIndiana State76-72 OT
29/01/26HBelmont77-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Evansville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL21%
HomeLLLWL27%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %21%27%14%
Points / game66.869.763.7
Allowed / game76.574.578.7
Point differential-9.7-4.8-15.0
Avg total143.3144.1142.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)0% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW57%
HomeLWWWW76%
AwayWLWLW31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %57%76%31%
Points / game71.772.470.7
Allowed / game70.965.178.4
Point differential+0.8+7.3-7.7
Avg total142.5137.5149.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%24%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)67% (6)50% (6)
Overtime %10%6%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont3126584%83.373.1+10.2
2 Murray State30201067%83.779.3+4.4
3 Illinois State30191163%75.768.1+7.6
4 Bradley30191163%77.172.9+4.2
5 Northern Iowa30181260%69.161.4+7.7
6 Illinois (Chi.)30171357%75.769.5+6.2
7 Valparaiso30171357%71.770.9+0.8
8 Southern Illinois30151550%73.169.7+3.3
9 Drake30121840%76.075.2+0.9
10 Indiana State30102033%73.875.2-1.5
11 Evansville2962321%66.876.5-9.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Evansville344680
Valparaiso423779
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