Fairfield hosts NJIT on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Fairfield the clear favourite with a 95% chance of victory, driven by their higher points per game of 59.0 versus NJIT's 54.8 and a better season record of 1-2 compared to NJIT's 1-4, while Fairfield's 80 projected points outpace NJIT's 61. In all games this season Fairfield has won one of three, allowing 75.7 points per game, and at home they are 0-1 with 67.0 points scored and 79.0 points allowed; their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent loss to Wisconsin 42-89 away, a win over Bryant 68-59 away, and a home defeat by Vermont 67-79. NJIT, meanwhile, has won one of five, allowing 80.2 points per game, and on the road they are 0-4, scoring 55.0 and conceding 87.2; their last five comprise one win and four losses, with recent defeats to VCU Rams 49-87 away, Rutgers 64-101 away, and a home win over St. Peters 54-52. The teams have met once, with Fairfield winning 74-53 in 2025. Pythia projects a 80-61 score, a total of 140.7, and a 76% probability that Fairfield will cover the home line of -11.5; the over on the 139.0 total has a 54% chance, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fairfield winWon
95.1%fair 1.05
Best odds1.15
Implied84.2%
Edge+10.9pp
NJIT winLost
4.9%fair 20.51
Best odds6.50
Implied15.8%
Edge-10.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Fairfield) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 134Actual: Under 134
Over 134
66.4%
@ 1.35-2.5pp
Under 134
33.6%
@ 3.00+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 139 · main lineActual: Under 139
Over 139
54.2%
@ 1.85+2.0pp
Under 139
45.8%
@ 2.10-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Marathon Be
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Under
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 144Actual: Under 144
Over 144
41.6%
@ 2.25+0.5pp
Under 144
58.4%
@ 1.66-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Under
Marathon Be
1.66
Bet365
1.57
📊 3. Team Totals
Fairfield total 71Actual: Fairfield under 71
Over 71
83.0%
Under 71
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fairfield total 75 · main lineActual: Fairfield under 75
Over 75
70.4%
@ 1.85+20.4pp
Under 75
29.6%
@ 1.85-20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Fairfield total 79Actual: Fairfield under 79
Over 79
54.6%
Under 79
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NJIT total 60Push
Over 60
52.3%
Under 60
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NJIT total 64 · main lineActual: NJIT under 64
Over 64
36.0%
@ 1.86-13.7pp
Under 64
64.0%
@ 1.85+13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
NJIT total 68Actual: NJIT under 68
Over 68
22.1%
Under 68
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Fairfield -14.5Actual: NJIT +14.5
FAIR -14.5
67.0%
@ 2.35+26.8pp
NJIT +14.5
33.0%
@ 1.55-26.8pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.25
NJIT
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread Fairfield -11.5 · main lineActual: NJIT +11.5
FAIR -11.5
75.9%
@ 1.96+26.8pp
NJIT +11.5
24.1%
@ 1.91-26.8pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
NJIT
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Fairfield -8.5Actual: NJIT +8.5
FAIR -8.5
83.3%
@ 1.54+22.7pp
NJIT +8.5
16.7%
@ 2.35-22.7pp
Best 5 market prices
FAIR
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
NJIT
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
FairfieldNJIT
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Fairfield -13
72.3%
2.18
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Fairfield -13.5
70.1%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.10
-
-
+29.5pp
Lost
Fairfield -12.5
73.1%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
-
+28.8pp
Lost
Fairfield -12
75.2%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.86
+28.7pp
Lost
Fairfield -11.5
75.9%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+26.8pp
Lost
Fairfield -11
78.0%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.74
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Fairfield -10.5
78.6%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.71
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Fairfield -10
80.5%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Fairfield -9
82.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Fairfield -9.5
81.0%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
-
-
+23.4pp
Lost
Fairfield -8.5
83.3%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Fairfield -8
85.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Fairfield -7.5
85.4%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Fairfield -7
87.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
Fairfield -6.5
87.3%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Fairfield over 75
70.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Fairfield -6
88.9%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Lost
Fairfield -5.5
89.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Fairfield -5
90.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Fairfield -4.5
90.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Fairfield -4
92.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Fairfield -3.5
92.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Fairfield (regulation)
94.3%
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.16
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Fairfield over 74.5
71.5%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Lost
Fairfield over 72.5
77.9%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
Fairfield over 73.5
74.8%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Fairfield over 70.5
83.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
NJIT under 66.5
72.4%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Fairfield -1.5
94.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Fairfield over 71.5
80.8%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
NJIT under 68.5
78.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
NJIT under 67.5
75.6%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Fairfield over 68.5
88.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Fairfield win
95.1%
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+10.9pp
Won
NJIT under 69.5
81.3%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Fairfield +3.5
96.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
NJIT under 71.5
86.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Fairfield +8.5
98.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
NJIT under 73.5
89.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
NJIT under 74.5
91.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
NJIT under 79.5
96.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
NJIT under 75.5
92.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
NJIT under 77.5
95.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 164.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Over 132
70.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Over 119.5
90.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
71.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Lost
Over 129.5
75.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Fairfield under 94.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Under 149
70.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 124.5
84.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Lost
Under 159.5
87.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Under 149.5
70.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Fairfield under 92.5
89.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 154.5
80.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Fairfield under 90.5
85.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
NJIT over 51.5
81.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Fairfield under 88.5
80.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
NJIT over 53.5
76.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Fairfield under 86.5
74.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
NJIT over 54.5
72.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Fairfield under 85.5
70.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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