Florida Atlantic faces William & Mary on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating the Owls as the clear favourite, rating them 81% to win largely because of their undefeated 2-0 record, 92.0 points per game and only 69.5 allowed, placing them 65th in the league. The Owls have a 1-1 overall record, averaging 72.5 points and conceding 78.5, while at home they are 1-0 with 74.0 points scored and 60.0 allowed; their last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent 74-60 victory over LIU Sharks at home. William & Mary, meanwhile, has a 2-0 record, 92.0 points per game, 69.5 allowed, and a 4-1 record over the last five games, highlighted by a 104-73 win over Norfolk State at home. The Pythia model gives Florida Atlantic an 81% chance to win, projecting a score of 84-74 and a total of 158.9 points, with a -5.5 home line and a 67% probability that the home team covers; the over-163.5 line has a 38% chance, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The last meeting between the teams ended with Florida Atlantic defeating William & Mary 84-74.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Florida Atlantic winWon
81.4%fair 1.23
Best odds1.47
Implied65.5%
Edge+15.9pp
William & Mary winLost
18.6%fair 5.37
Best odds2.79
Implied34.5%
Edge-15.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
William & Mary under 80.5
73.0%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+24.1pp
Lost
William & Mary under 80
72.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic -2
78.7%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Florida Atlantic -4
72.5%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.73
-
+18.5pp
Won
Under 168
72.0%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic -4.5
70.1%
1.80
Bet365
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
+18.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
70.5%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.50
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Under 168.5
72.6%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.44
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic -1.5
79.4%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Florida Atlantic -2.5
76.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Florida Atlantic (regulation)
79.3%
1.49
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.46
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Florida Atlantic -1
81.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Florida Atlantic -3
75.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic -3.5
73.4%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67
+17.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +1
82.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Florida Atlantic win
81.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.43
+15.9pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +1.5
83.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +2
85.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +2.5
85.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Under 171.5
78.2%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic +3
86.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +3.5
87.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +6.5
91.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
74.5%
1.48
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Under 170.5
76.4%
1.43
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Lost
Under 172.5
80.0%
1.34
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic +10.5
95.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Under 170
76.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
Under 169
74.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic +15.5
98.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +20.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Florida Atlantic under 90.5
72.7%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Under 177.5
87.2%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic under 94.5
84.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic over 78.5
72.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 70.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 71.5
90.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 75.5
81.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 72.5
88.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 73.5
86.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 74.5
84.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 76.5
78.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
William & Mary +24.5
89.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 137.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
William & Mary over 60.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
William & Mary over 62.5
87.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
William & Mary over 61.5
89.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 142.5
84.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
William & Mary over 63.5
85.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
William & Mary +19.5
79.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
William & Mary over 64.5
83.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Over 147.5
75.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
William & Mary over 65.5
80.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
William & Mary over 66.5
77.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
William & Mary over 68.5
71.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
William & Mary over 67.5
74.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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