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Florida State vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 17 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 57-68
18-25 39-43
Position#196
Record4-4
FormWWLLL
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game75.4
vs
Position#99
Record6-4
FormLWLWL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game63.4
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Florida State v SMU Mustangs
07 Mar 2026
FLOR91
SMU 78
08 Mar 2025
FLOR76
SMU 69
16 Dec 2023
FLOR57
SMU 68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#138
L
60-82
60
82
-22
A04/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H07/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#227
W
94-67
94
67
+27
H10/11
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
W
94-67
94
67
+27
H14/11
NCAA
Florida
#73
L
68-89
68
89
-21
A18/11
NCAA
UNLV
#115
W
83-75
83
75
+8
A20/11
NCAA
Colorado
#47
W
77-71 OT
77
71
+6
H21/11
NCAA
Georgia
#197
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H30/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
70-78
70
78
-8
A02/12
NCAA
South Florida
#20
L
72-88
72
88
-16
A09/12
NCAA
1H
2H
30-39
30-43
31-21
29-40
49-34
45-33
50-30
44-37
22-52
46-37
42-35
41-40
27-30
33-30
25-21
41-47
35-29
35-49
24-38
48-50
149.0Avg total
74.4Scored
74.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)78.075.4153.4+2.650%
Season at home (4)82.868.2151.0+14.575%
Season away (4)73.282.5155.8-9.225%
Last 10 (10)74.474.6149.0-0.240%
Last 5 (5)73.676.0149.6-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)71.278.8150.0-7.533%
vs Similar (4)80.869.2150.0+11.550%
vs Weaker (2)78.065.5143.5+12.5100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SAGU
#433
W
82-63
82
63
+19
H07/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#92
W
90-53
90
53
+37
H09/11
NCAA
Lamar
#146
W
78-67
78
67
+11
H10/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#139
L
66-79
66
79
-13
H15/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
W
70-58
70
58
+12
A21/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
61-69
61
69
-8
A23/11
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#302
W
70-57
70
57
+13
H26/11
NCAA
Dayton
#30
L
63-65
63
65
-2
H30/11
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#290
W
90-47
90
47
+43
H03/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#267
L
74-76
74
76
-2
A07/12
NCAA
1H
2H
43-39
39-24
48-22
42-31
31-19
47-48
32-39
34-40
25-36
45-22
32-24
29-45
23-30
47-27
37-35
26-30
46-16
44-31
40-36
34-40
137.8Avg total
74.4Scored
63.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)74.463.4137.8+11.060%
Season at home (7)77.061.6138.6+15.471%
Season away (3)68.367.7136.0+0.733%
Last 10 (10)74.463.4137.8+11.060%
Last 5 (5)71.662.8134.4+8.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)68.179.5147.6-11.412%
vs Similar (5)72.069.6141.6+2.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)79.264.0143.2+15.278%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: +4.9+4.9
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: +4.9+4.9
Florida StateSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#138
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A04/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#241
W
31-21
31
21
+10
H07/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#227
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H10/11
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H14/11
NCAA
Florida
#73
L
22-52
22
52
-30
A18/11
NCAA
UNLV
#115
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A20/11
NCAA
Colorado
#47
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H21/11
NCAA
Georgia
#197
W
25-21
25
21
+4
H30/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A02/12
NCAA
South Florida
#20
L
24-38
24
38
-14
A09/12
NCAA
66.4Avg total
33.5Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.236.870.0-3.647%-
Last 30 at home (17)33.934.268.1-0.253%-
Last 30 away (13)32.340.272.5-7.938%-
Last 10 (10)33.532.966.4+0.660%-
Last 5 (5)30.630.661.2+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)31.938.470.2-6.538%-
vs Similar (4)37.830.868.5+7.075%-
vs Weaker (2)40.530.070.5+10.5100%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SAGU
#433
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H07/11
NCAA
Western Illinois
#92
W
48-22
48
22
+26
H09/11
NCAA
Lamar
#146
W
31-19
31
19
+12
H10/11
NCAA
Texas A&M
#139
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H15/11
NCAA
West Virginia
#338
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A21/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
W
32-24
32
24
+8
A23/11
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#302
L
23-30
23
30
-7
H26/11
NCAA
Dayton
#30
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H30/11
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#290
W
46-16
46
16
+30
H03/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#267
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A07/12
NCAA
65.3Avg total
35.7Scored
29.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.833.667.4+0.153%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.631.867.4+3.962%-
Last 30 away (14)31.635.867.4-4.143%-
Last 10 (10)35.729.665.3+6.170%-
Last 5 (5)35.628.263.8+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)32.436.368.7-3.944%-
vs Similar (5)33.429.262.6+4.280%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)36.431.367.8+5.156%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Florida State wins
0
SMU Mustangs wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/23ASouth Florida72-88
02/12/23ANorth Carolina70-78
30/11/23HGeorgia66-68
21/11/23HColorado77-71 OT
20/11/23AUNLV83-75
18/11/23AFlorida68-89
14/11/23HCentral Michigan94-67
10/11/23HKennesaw State94-67
07/03/23HGeorgia Tech60-61
04/03/23AVirginia Tech60-82
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/23AArizona State74-76
03/12/23HTX A&M Commerce90-47
30/11/23HDayton63-65
26/11/23HLouisiana Monroe70-57
23/11/23AWisconsin61-69
21/11/23AWest Virginia70-58
15/11/23HTexas A&M66-79
10/11/23HLamar78-67
09/11/23HWestern Illinois90-53
07/11/23HSAGU82-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL50%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%75%25%
Points / game78.082.873.2
Allowed / game75.468.282.5
Point differential+2.6+14.5-9.2
Avg total153.4151.0155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %12%25%0%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL60%
HomeWLWLW71%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %60%71%33%
Points / game74.477.068.3
Allowed / game63.461.667.7
Point differential+11.0+15.4+0.7
Avg total137.8138.6136.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%71%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virginia109190%66.853.3+13.5
2 Clemson109190%78.569.3+9.2
3 NC State97278%80.369.7+10.7
4 Pittsburgh118373%82.864.8+18.0
5 Virginia Tech118373%74.065.3+8.7
6 Miami (FL)118373%80.772.3+8.5
7 Boston College118373%78.971.0+7.9
8 Duke107370%81.666.1+15.5
9 North Carolina107370%84.975.0+9.9
10 Syracuse107370%77.270.8+6.4
11 Wake Forest96367%79.069.4+9.6
12 Georgia Tech96367%72.271.4+0.8
13 SMU Mustangs106460%74.463.4+11.0
14 Stanford84450%80.276.0+4.2
15 Florida State84450%78.075.4+2.6
16 Louisville104640%73.474.7-1.3
17 Notre Dame104640%64.667.8-3.2
18 California103730%76.576.8-0.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Florida State183957
SMU Mustangs254368
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