PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Florida State vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 76-69
33-32 43-37
Position#177
Record16-14
FormWLLLL
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game72.8
vs
Position#58
Record22-8
FormWLWLW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Florida State v SMU Mustangs
07 Mar 2026
FLOR91
SMU 78
08 Mar 2025
FLOR76
SMU 69
16 Dec 2023
FLOR57
SMU 68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#286
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H30/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A01/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
67-60
67
60
+7
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
72-70
72
70
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H15/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
74-66
74
66
+8
H20/02
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
81-89
81
89
-8
A22/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
L
85-96
85
96
-11
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
65-100
65
100
-35
A02/03
NCAA
Virginia
#230
L
57-60
57
60
-3
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
15-35
51-41
41-36
35-41
29-28
38-32
21-35
51-35
19-36
27-36
31-31
43-35
31-45
50-44
43-49
42-47
30-47
35-53
28-27
29-33
145.5Avg total
68.9Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)74.872.8147.6+2.053%
Season at home (16)76.770.9147.6+5.869%
Season away (14)72.775.0147.7-2.336%
Last 10 (10)68.976.6145.5-7.730%
Last 5 (5)72.482.2154.6-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)70.884.4155.1-13.612%
vs Similar (14)74.170.2144.4+3.964%
vs Weaker (8)80.165.8145.9+14.475%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H30/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
85-61
85
61
+24
H01/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
81-75
81
75
+6
A06/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H12/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
66-77
66
77
-11
H15/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
97-73
97
73
+24
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H22/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
77-75
77
75
+2
H05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
39-29
37-36
45-25
40-36
35-35
46-40
43-27
40-36
34-32
32-45
50-25
47-48
32-36
37-43
42-29
39-48
39-45
29-28
36-44
41-31
150.1Avg total
78.3Scored
71.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)81.572.0153.5+9.573%
Season at home (18)82.772.4155.1+10.372%
Season away (12)79.871.5151.2+8.275%
Last 10 (10)78.371.8150.1+6.570%
Last 5 (5)78.475.4153.8+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar (6)75.379.0154.3-3.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)84.069.5153.4+14.587%
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -0.3-0.3
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -0.3-0.3
Florida StateSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#286
L
15-35
15
35
-20
H30/01
NCAA
Boston College
#298
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A01/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
L
21-35
21
35
-14
A13/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
19-36
19
36
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H20/02
NCAA
Louisville
#26
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A22/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
30-47
30
47
-17
A02/03
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A05/03
NCAA
65.7Avg total
28.8Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.232.365.5+0.957%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.031.865.8+2.262%-
Last 30 away (14)32.332.965.1-0.650%-
Last 10 (10)28.836.965.7-8.130%-
Last 5 (5)32.639.872.4-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)32.840.072.8-7.212%-
vs Similar (14)32.429.061.4+3.471%-
vs Weaker (8)35.130.265.4+4.975%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H30/01
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H01/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A06/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H12/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H15/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A20/02
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H22/02
NCAA
California
#268
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H05/03
NCAA
72.2Avg total
39.5Scored
32.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.533.573.0+5.967%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.134.374.3+5.872%-
Last 30 away (12)38.632.471.0+6.258%-
Last 10 (10)39.532.772.2+6.860%-
Last 5 (5)39.835.875.6+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (6)34.236.770.8-2.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)41.232.473.6+8.874%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Florida State wins
1
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
17/12/23Florida State v SMU Mustangs57-68
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/25AVirginia57-60
02/03/25ADuke65-100
25/02/25HNorth Carolina85-96
22/02/25ALouisville81-89
20/02/25HMiami (FL)74-66
15/02/25HClemson46-72
13/02/25AWake Forest72-70
05/02/25HNotre Dame67-60
01/02/25ABoston College76-77
30/01/25HVirginia Tech66-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/25HSyracuse77-75
01/03/25AStanford68-73
27/02/25ACalifornia81-77
22/02/25HClemson69-79
20/02/25ANotre Dame97-73
15/02/25HWake Forest66-77
12/02/25HPittsburgh83-63
06/02/25AVirginia Tech81-75
01/02/25HStanford85-61
30/01/25HCalifornia76-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL53%
HomeLWLWL69%
AwayLWLLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %53%69%36%
Points / game74.876.772.7
Allowed / game72.870.975.0
Point differential+2.0+5.8-2.3
Avg total147.6147.6147.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%50%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW73%
HomeWWLLW72%
AwayWWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %73%72%75%
Points / game81.582.779.8
Allowed / game72.072.471.5
Point differential+9.5+10.3+8.2
Avg total153.5155.1151.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%67%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)50% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3027390%83.561.1+22.4
2 Clemson3025583%77.566.3+11.1
3 Louisville3125681%79.368.5+10.8
4 SMU Mustangs3022873%81.572.0+9.5
5 Wake Forest31211068%70.568.0+2.5
6 North Carolina31201165%82.175.9+6.2
7 Stanford31191261%72.870.4+2.5
8 Pittsburgh30161453%76.071.5+4.5
9 Florida State30161453%74.872.8+2.0
10 Georgia Tech31161552%73.772.6+1.1
11 Virginia30151550%64.866.2-1.5
12 Notre Dame30131743%72.571.7+0.7
13 California30131743%74.375.7-1.4
14 Virginia Tech30131743%69.873.1-3.4
15 Syracuse30121840%75.478.7-3.3
16 Boston College30121840%70.575.2-4.7
17 NC State31121939%69.570.3-0.8
18 Miami (FL)3172423%74.080.6-6.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Florida State334376
SMU Mustangs323769
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.