Florida State faces Troy in an NCAA matchup on 6 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating the Seminoles as the clear favourite, assigning them a 75% chance of victory largely because of their higher points per game at 69.0 compared to Troy's 60.0 and a superior points allowed per game of 112.0 versus 71.0, reflecting the model's emphasis on offensive output. Florida State's single game record stands at 0-1, with a 69.0 points scored average and 112.0 allowed, while Troy also sits at 0-1, scoring 60.0 and allowing 71.0; both teams have identical 3-2 records over their last five games, with Florida State's recent results including a 69-112 loss to Florida A&M at home, a 79-80 loss to Duke away, and a 95-89 home win over California, whereas Troy's recent outcomes feature a 60-71 loss to UMass at home, a 47-76 loss to Nebraska away, and a 77-61 home win over Georgia Southern. Their only previous meeting, on 14 November 2022, saw Troy defeat Florida State 79-72. The Pythia model projects a 82-74 scoreline with a total of 156.0 points, giving Florida State a 10% probability of covering the -22.5 spread and a 46% chance of the game going over the 157.5 total, with a 4% likelihood of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Florida State winWon
74.9%fair 1.33
Best odds1.02
Implied93.6%
Edge-18.7pp
Troy winLost
25.1%fair 3.99
Best odds26.00
Implied6.4%
Edge+18.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Florida State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
55.3%
@ 1.42-9.9pp
Under 153.5
44.7%
@ 2.70+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.60
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
43.2%
@ 1.86-8.7pp
Under 158.5
56.8%
@ 1.98+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Under
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
31.8%
@ 2.40-7.5pp
Under 163.5
68.2%
@ 1.53+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Florida State total 87Actual: Florida State over 87
Over 87
29.5%
Under 87
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida State total 91 · main linePush
Over 91
17.1%
@ 1.85-33.1pp
Under 91
82.9%
@ 1.87+33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Florida State total 95Actual: Florida State under 95
Over 95
8.8%
Under 95
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Troy total 64Actual: Troy over 64
Over 64
84.6%
Under 64
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Troy total 68 · main linePush
Over 68
73.0%
@ 1.87+23.3pp
Under 68
27.0%
@ 1.85-23.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Troy total 72Actual: Troy under 72
Over 72
58.1%
Under 72
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Florida State -26.5Actual: Troy +26.5
FLOR -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
TROY +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
TROY
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Spread Florida State -23.5 · main lineActual: Troy +23.5
FLOR -23.5
8.5%
@ 2.00-40.9pp
TROY +23.5
91.5%
@ 1.88+40.9pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
TROY
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.71
Spread Florida State -20.5Actual: Florida State -20.5
FLOR -20.5
13.0%
@ 1.66-43.3pp
TROY +20.5
87.0%
@ 2.12+43.3pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
TROY
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Florida StateTroy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#122
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A12/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#180
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H03/11
NCAA
76.5Avg total
38.5Scored
38.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)
37.5
37.1
74.6
+0.4
50%
37%
Last 30 at home (18)
37.3
35.8
73.1
+1.4
56%
33%
Last 30 away (12)
37.8
39.0
76.8
-1.2
42%
42%
Last 10 (10)
38.5
38.0
76.5
+0.5
50%
50%
Last 5 (5)
41.6
37.2
78.8
+4.4
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)
33.3
43.3
76.7
-10.0
17%
42%
vs Similar (14)
40.2
33.9
74.1
+6.4
71%
36%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)
40.5
29.8
70.2
+10.8
75%
25%
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Florida State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Florida State win
FLOR win
no forecast
@ 1.12
TROY win
no forecast
@ 6.30
2nd half Spread Florida State -10.5 · main lineActual: Florida State -10.5
FLOR -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
TROY +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Florida State (regulation)
FLOR
no forecast
@ 1.14
Draw
no forecast
@ 25.00
TROY
no forecast
@ 6.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Troy +15
75.2%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+49.0pp
Lost
Troy +16
77.9%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+48.4pp
Lost
Troy +14.5
73.1%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+47.6pp
Lost
Troy +17
80.5%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
Troy +18
82.8%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Troy +15.5
75.9%
3.17
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+46.8pp
Lost
Troy +16.5
78.5%
2.88
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.85
-
-
-
+46.4pp
Lost
Troy +17.5
80.9%
2.63
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.62
-
-
-
+45.8pp
Lost
Troy +18.5
83.2%
2.48
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
Troy +19
84.9%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+45.3pp
Lost
Troy +20
86.8%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Lost
Troy +19.5
85.2%
2.26
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+44.3pp
Lost
Troy +23
91.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.94
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+43.5pp
Push
Troy +20.5
87.0%
2.11
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+43.3pp
Lost
Troy +22
90.0%
1.97
Marathon Bet
2.02
Bet365
1.92
-
-
-
+42.9pp
Lost
Troy +21
88.5%
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Lost
Troy +21.5
88.7%
2.00
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+42.1pp
Lost
Troy +23.5
91.5%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.88
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.71
-
+40.9pp
Won
Troy +22.5
90.2%
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
+40.8pp
Lost
Troy +24
92.5%
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+39.0pp
Won
Troy +24.5
92.6%
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.75
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+36.6pp
Won
Troy +25
93.6%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+35.2pp
Won
Florida State under 87.5
71.5%
2.46
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.42
-
-
-
+34.1pp
Lost
Florida State under 88.5
74.8%
2.22
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
-
+34.0pp
Lost
Florida State under 91
82.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Push
Florida State under 89.5
77.9%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.86
-
-
+33.0pp
Lost
Florida State under 90.5
80.7%
1.91
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
-
+33.0pp
Lost
Florida State under 91.5
83.3%
1.84
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
+32.4pp
Won
Florida State under 92.5
85.7%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Won
Florida State under 93.5
87.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Won
Florida State under 94.5
89.7%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Florida State under 95.5
91.3%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Florida State under 96.5
92.8%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Troy over 68
73.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Push
Florida State under 97.5
94.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Troy over 67.5
73.9%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
+20.9pp
Won
Troy over 68.5
70.6%
1.88
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+20.9pp
Lost
Troy over 66.5
77.0%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Troy over 65.5
79.9%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Troy over 64.5
82.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Florida State under 99.5
96.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Florida State under 100.5
96.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Troy over 63.5
85.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Florida State under 101.5
97.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Florida State under 103.5
98.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Troy over 61.5
89.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Troy over 59.5
92.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Troy over 58.5
93.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Troy over 57.5
94.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Troy over 55.5
96.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
70.3%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 165.5
72.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 165
71.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Troy over 53.5
97.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
74.3%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 166
73.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Under 167
75.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Troy over 51.5
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
76.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 184.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 179.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
86.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
84.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Over 144.5
75.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Florida State (regulation)
72.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.2pp
Won
Florida State over 75.5
73.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-16.3pp
Won
Troy under 79.5
70.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-17.0pp
Won
Florida State win
74.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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