Fordham faces Stonehill on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Fordham the clear favourite as Pythia assigns an 81% chance of victory, reflecting their 0-1 record, 65.0 points scored and 95.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 340, while Stonehill holds a 1-0 record, 84.0 points scored and 56.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 106. Fordham's single game this season was a 65-95 loss to Kansas away, and their last five games include one win and four losses, with a recent 61-49 win over Rhode Island at home; Stonehill's single game was a 84-56 win over Curry at home, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 81-71 win over Le Moyne away. The teams have met once before, with Fordham winning 71-60 on 22 November 2022. Pythia projects a 75-65 score and 140.2 total points, giving Fordham a 25% chance to cover the -17.5 spread and a 41% chance of the over on the 143.5 total, with a 4% probability of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fordham winWon
80.7%fair 1.24
Best odds1.02
Implied93.6%
Edge-12.9pp
Stonehill winLost
19.3%fair 5.18
Best odds26.00
Implied6.4%
Edge+12.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Fordham) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 135.5Actual: Over 135.5
Over 135.5
60.8%
@ 1.29-11.1pp
Under 135.5
39.2%
@ 3.30+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.30
Over/Under 140.5 · main lineActual: Over 140.5
Over 140.5
48.7%
@ 1.90-1.3pp
Under 140.5
51.3%
@ 2.25+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
36.8%
@ 2.10-10.0pp
Under 145.5
63.2%
@ 1.78+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
WilliamHill
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Be
1.73
WilliamHill
1.73
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
📊 3. Team Totals
Fordham total 77Actual: Fordham over 77
Over 77
41.7%
Under 77
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fordham total 81 · main lineActual: Fordham over 81
Over 81
26.6%
@ 1.87-23.2pp
Under 81
73.4%
@ 1.85+23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Fordham total 85Actual: Fordham under 85
Over 85
14.9%
Under 85
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stonehill total 56Actual: Stonehill over 56
Over 56
82.3%
Under 56
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stonehill total 60 · main lineActual: Stonehill over 60
Over 60
69.7%
@ 1.85+19.7pp
Under 60
30.3%
@ 1.85-19.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Stonehill total 64Actual: Stonehill under 64
Over 64
54.2%
Under 64
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Fordham -20.5Actual: Stonehill +20.5
FORD -20.5
17.3%
@ 2.40-30.4pp
STON +20.5
82.7%
@ 1.88+30.4pp
Best 5 market prices
FORD
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
STON
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Pinnacle
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.52
Spread Fordham -17.5 · main lineActual: Fordham -17.5
FORD -17.5
24.7%
@ 1.95-25.3pp
STON +17.5
75.3%
@ 2.00+25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
FORD
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
STON
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Spread Fordham -14.5Actual: Fordham -14.5
FORD -14.5
33.7%
@ 1.58-25.9pp
STON +14.5
66.3%
@ 2.35+25.9pp
Best 5 market prices
FORD
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.52
STON
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
FordhamStonehill
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Stonehill +18
77.4%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathon Bet
2.00
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+34.8pp
Lost
Stonehill +18.5
78.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.68
-
+33.5pp
Lost
Stonehill +19
79.9%
1.87
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Stonehill +21
84.4%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.45
-
-
+32.9pp
Won
Stonehill +20
82.3%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+32.5pp
Push
Stonehill +19.5
80.4%
1.86
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
BetVictor
1.78
+31.7pp
Lost
Stonehill +20.5
82.7%
1.77
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.52
+30.4pp
Won
Stonehill +21.5
84.7%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
-
+26.9pp
Won
Fordham under 82
76.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
Stonehill +22
86.4%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Won
Stonehill +17
74.6%
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Stonehill +16
71.6%
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Lost
Stonehill +16.5
72.5%
2.00
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Fordham under 82.5
77.5%
1.81
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Fordham under 83.5
80.4%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
+25.3pp
Won
Stonehill +17.5
75.3%
1.88
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
+25.3pp
Lost
Fordham under 81
73.4%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Stonehill over 58.5
74.1%
1.49
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
+21.2pp
Won
Stonehill over 59.5
70.8%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.78
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Fordham under 81.5
74.3%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.86
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.74
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Fordham under 84.5
83.0%
1.46
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Fordham under 80.5
71.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
+20.0pp
Lost
Stonehill +22.5
86.6%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Stonehill +23.5
88.3%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Stonehill +23
88.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Stonehill +24.5
89.8%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Fordham under 85.5
85.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Stonehill +24
89.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Fordham under 86.5
87.6%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Fordham under 87.5
89.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Stonehill +25
91.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Fordham under 90.5
94.0%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Stonehill over 57.5
77.2%
1.41
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Fordham under 89.5
92.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Stonehill over 55.5
82.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Fordham under 91.5
95.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Fordham under 93.5
96.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Stonehill over 54.5
85.2%
1.21
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Fordham under 95.5
97.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Fordham under 97.5
98.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Under 149
71.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 149.5
71.9%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 150
73.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 150.5
73.9%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Fordham under 99.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Under 151
75.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 151.5
75.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Stonehill over 56.5
80.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Stonehill over 53.5
87.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Stonehill under 80.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Stonehill under 78.5
90.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Stonehill under 76.5
86.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Stonehill under 74.5
82.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Stonehill under 73.5
79.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Stonehill under 72.5
76.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Stonehill under 70.5
70.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Fordham (regulation)
78.5%
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Fordham win
80.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-12.9pp
Won
Fordham over 69.5
71.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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