Fortitudo Bologna will host Sebastiani Rieti on 15 November 2026 in the Serie A2, and the model favours the home side with a 67% chance of victory over the 33% chance for the visitors, projecting a 78-73 finish. Both clubs finish the season with identical 7-2 records, the Bolognese side averaging 79.4 points and conceding 74.3, while the Rieti squad averages 74.8 points and 72.1 allowed, placing them third and fourth respectively. Fortitudo's home form is strong, 4-1 at the PalaBigi with 85.8 points scored and 72.8 allowed, and they have won three of their last five, including a 78-75 win over Basket Torino on 11 November and an 83-66 triumph at Urania Milano on 7 November. Sebastiani Rieti's road record is 2-2, 72.8 points scored and 79.0 allowed, and they have won four of five recent outings, notably a 80-62 victory over Montecatini at home on 11 November. In their eight previous meetings Fortitudo has won five times, most recently defeating Rieti 79-65 on 22 February 2026. The spread of -6.5 gives Fortitudo a 45% chance to cover, while the total of 148.0 carries a 56% probability of an over, and the game has a 5% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 79.4 | 74.3 | 153.8 | +5.1 | 78% |
| Season at home (5) | 85.8 | 72.8 | 158.6 | +13.0 | 80% |
| Season away (4) | 71.5 | 76.2 | 147.8 | -4.8 | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.8 | 75.5 | 154.3 | +3.3 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 76.6 | 150.8 | -2.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 59.0 | 85.0 | 144.0 | -26.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 73.1 | 70.8 | 143.9 | +2.2 | 59% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 83.6 | 71.9 | 155.5 | +11.7 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 74.8 | 72.1 | 146.9 | +2.7 | 78% |
| Season at home (5) | 76.4 | 66.6 | 143.0 | +9.8 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 72.8 | 79.0 | 151.8 | -6.2 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.1 | 73.9 | 149.0 | +1.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.8 | 69.8 | 142.6 | +3.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 76.2 | 81.0 | 157.2 | -4.8 | 40% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 75.5 | 76.4 | 151.9 | -0.9 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 81.0 | 74.6 | 155.6 | +6.4 | 91% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 73.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.5 | 36.2 | 74.7 | +2.3 | 60% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 38.0 | 34.4 | 72.4 | +3.6 | 62% | 38% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 39.1 | 38.4 | 77.4 | +0.7 | 57% | 79% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.1 | 40.0 | 79.1 | -0.9 | 50% | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.0 | 40.2 | 79.2 | -1.2 | 40% | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 33.0 | 44.0 | 77.0 | -11.0 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar ◀ (17) | 36.8 | 35.5 | 72.3 | +1.4 | 59% | 41% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 41.3 | 36.7 | 78.0 | +4.7 | 67% | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 73.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.5 | 39.0 | 77.6 | -0.5 | 43% | 63% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.5 | 38.6 | 78.1 | +0.9 | 53% | 60% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.5 | 39.5 | 77.0 | -1.9 | 33% | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.1 | 40.2 | 79.3 | -1.1 | 50% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.8 | 37.8 | 72.6 | -3.0 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 40.0 | 45.2 | 85.2 | -5.2 | 40% | 100% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 37.7 | 41.1 | 78.8 | -3.4 | 21% | 57% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 38.9 | 33.6 | 72.5 | +5.3 | 73% | 55% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiani Rieti over 65.5 | 73.5% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp |
| Sebastiani Rieti over 64.5 | 76.7% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp |
| Sebastiani Rieti +14.5 | 79.5% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp |
| Sebastiani Rieti +13.5 | 77.0% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp |
| Fortitudo Bologna over 71.5 | 71.3% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 26.0 | 13.5 | 51.2% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.4 | 10.7 | 34.5% | 32.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.1 | 12.3 | 71.0% | 12.3 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 30.7 | 15.2 | 51.2% | 30.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.7 | 9.1 | 34.5% | 27.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 25.5 | 17.7 | 71.0% | 17.7 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 | Fortitudo Bologna v Sebastiani Rieti | 79-65 |
| 28/12/25 | Sebastiani Rieti v Fortitudo Bologna | 68-62 |
| 02/03/25 | Fortitudo Bologna v Sebastiani Rieti | 81-75 |
| 06/11/24 | Sebastiani Rieti v Fortitudo Bologna | 61-60 |
| 24/05/24 | Sebastiani Rieti v Fortitudo Bologna | 58-60 |
| 21/05/24 | Fortitudo Bologna v Sebastiani Rieti | 75-59 |
| 19/05/24 | Fortitudo Bologna v Sebastiani Rieti | 67-58 |
| 10/03/24 | Fortitudo Bologna v Sebastiani Rieti | 70-76 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Basket Torino | 78-75 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Urania Milano | 83-66 |
| 01/11/26 | A | Pistoia | 66-64 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Vigevano | 85-93 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Libertas Livorno | 59-85 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Montecatini | 91-69 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Rimini | 78-66 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Caserta | 83-81 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Ruvo Di Puglia | 92-70 |
| 25/05/26 | A | Verona | 73-86 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Montecatini | 80-62 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Ruvo Di Puglia | 68-63 |
| 01/11/26 | H | JuVi Cremona | 73-65 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Rimini | 73-96 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Brindisi | 70-63 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Forli | 71-93 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Pistoia | 78-70 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Vigevano | 79-64 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Caserta | 81-73 |
| 15/05/26 | H | Cividale | 78-90 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWWW | 78% |
| Home | WWWLW | 80% |
| Away | WLWW | 75% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 78% | 80% | 75% |
| Points / game | 79.4 | 85.8 | 71.5 |
| Allowed / game | 74.3 | 72.8 | 76.2 |
| Point differential | +5.1 | +13.0 | -4.8 |
| Avg total | 153.8 | 158.6 | 147.8 |
| Over 147.25 | 67% | 80% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 44% | 80% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (3) | - | 100% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 78% |
| Home | WWWWW | 100% |
| Away | WLLW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 78% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 74.8 | 76.4 | 72.8 |
| Allowed / game | 72.1 | 66.6 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +2.7 | +9.8 | -6.2 |
| Avg total | 146.9 | 143.0 | 151.8 |
| Over 147.25 | 44% | 40% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 22% | 20% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 81.2 | 69.7 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 82.2 | 74.7 | +7.6 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 79.4 | 74.3 | +5.1 | |
| 4 | Sebastiani Rieti | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 74.8 | 72.1 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Rimini | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 80.4 | 71.8 | +8.7 |
| 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 77.4 | 73.9 | +3.6 | |
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 72.8 | 72.2 | +0.5 | |
| 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 77.6 | 69.1 | +8.5 | |
| 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 82.3 | 77.6 | +4.8 | |
| 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 81.0 | 79.9 | +1.1 | |
| 11 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 77.2 | 76.4 | +0.8 | |
| 12 | Cividale | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 71.8 | 74.1 | -2.3 |
| 13 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 75.0 | 76.4 | -1.4 | |
| 14 | Vigevano | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 76.3 | 81.8 | -5.4 |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 78.1 | 82.6 | -4.5 | |
| 16 | JuVi Cremona | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 75.3 | 77.9 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 74.4 | 81.7 | -7.2 |
| 18 | Cento | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 72.8 | 82.2 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Montecatini | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 68.1 | 82.3 | -14.2 |
| 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10% | 74.6 | 82.7 | -8.1 |
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