Sebastiani Rieti face Montecatini in Serie A2 on 11 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Sebastiani Rieti as the clear favourite at 88% versus 12% for Montecatini, a reflection of their 6-2 season record, 74.1 points per game and 73.4 allowed, and a perfect 4-0 home slate with 75.5 points scored and 67.8 allowed; Montecatini struggle with a 1-7 record, 68.9 points per game and 82.6 allowed, and a 1-3 road record. Sebastiani Rieti's last five games include wins over Ruvo Di Puglia 68-63 away, JuVi Cremona 73-65 at home, and a loss to Rimini 73-96 away, while Montecatini have lost all five of their most recent outings, including defeats to Pistoia 71-86, Basket Torino 48-70, and Cento 71-77. The model projects a score of 83-70, a total of 153.2 points, and a 53% chance that Sebastiani Rieti will cover the -13.0 spread, with a 59% probability of the over on the 149.5 total, and a 2% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 74.1 | 73.4 | 147.5 | +0.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 75.5 | 67.8 | 143.2 | +7.8 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 72.8 | 79.0 | 151.8 | -6.2 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.4 | 75.9 | 150.3 | -1.5 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.0 | 76.0 | 147.0 | -5.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 76.2 | 81.0 | 157.2 | -4.8 | 40% |
| vs Similar (15) | 75.9 | 74.9 | 150.9 | +1.0 | 47% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 81.1 | 75.9 | 157.0 | +5.2 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 68.9 | 82.6 | 151.5 | -13.8 | 12% |
| Season at home (4) | 69.8 | 85.8 | 155.5 | -16.0 | 0% |
| Season away (4) | 68.0 | 79.5 | 147.5 | -11.5 | 25% |
| Last 10 (8) | 68.9 | 82.6 | 151.5 | -13.8 | 12% |
| Last 5 (5) | 66.6 | 81.8 | 148.4 | -15.2 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 68.9 | 82.6 | 151.5 | -13.8 | 12% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.7 | 39.1 | 77.7 | -0.4 | 43% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.8 | 38.7 | 78.5 | +1.1 | 53% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.5 | 39.5 | 77.0 | -1.9 | 33% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.3 | 41.9 | 81.2 | -2.6 | 40% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.6 | 43.6 | 80.2 | -7.0 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 40.0 | 45.2 | 85.2 | -5.2 | 40% | 100% |
| vs Similar (15) | 37.8 | 40.1 | 77.9 | -2.3 | 27% | 47% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 39.3 | 34.4 | 73.7 | +4.9 | 70% | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 75.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (8) | 37.8 | 37.5 | 75.2 | +0.2 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 30 at home (4) | 39.0 | 33.8 | 72.8 | +5.2 | 75% | 25% |
| Last 30 away (4) | 36.5 | 41.2 | 77.8 | -4.8 | 25% | 75% |
| Last 10 (8) | 37.8 | 37.5 | 75.2 | +0.2 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 37.2 | 73.4 | -1.0 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 37.8 | 37.5 | 75.2 | +0.2 | 50% | 50% |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiani Rieti over 76.5 | 76.0% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +11.6pp | Won |
| Sebastiani Rieti over 75.5 | 79.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Won |
| Sebastiani Rieti over 77.5 | 72.8% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +10.3pp | Won |
| Over 141.5 | 76.3% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +9.4pp | Won |
| Over 143.5 | 72.3% | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +9.3pp | Lost |
| Over 144.5 | 70.2% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Lost |
| Over 142.5 | 74.3% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Lost |
| Montecatini over 62.5 | 76.1% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Lost |
| Montecatini over 63.5 | 72.8% | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Lost |
| Sebastiani Rieti (regulation) | 86.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +4.4pp | - |
| Sebastiani Rieti -5.5 | 77.3% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Sebastiani Rieti -6.5 | 74.4% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
| Sebastiani Rieti -7.5 | 71.3% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +2.6pp | Won |
| Sebastiani Rieti win | 88.5% | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.08 | +2.2pp | Won |
| Montecatini +20.5 | 72.7% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Over 144 | 71.7% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | - | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 30.7 | 15.2 | 51.2% | 30.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.7 | 9.1 | 34.5% | 27.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 25.5 | 17.7 | 71.0% | 17.7 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 24.0 | 11.5 | 51.2% | 23.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.2 | 7.3 | 34.5% | 22.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.8 | 11.8 | 71.0% | 11.8 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Ruvo Di Puglia | 68-63 |
| 01/11/26 | H | JuVi Cremona | 73-65 |
| 25/10/26 | A | Rimini | 73-96 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Brindisi | 70-63 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Forli | 71-93 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Pistoia | 78-70 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Vigevano | 79-64 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Caserta | 81-73 |
| 15/05/26 | H | Cividale | 78-90 |
| 13/05/26 | H | Cividale | 73-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Pistoia | 71-86 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Basket Torino | 48-70 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Cento | 71-77 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Avellino Basket | 74-85 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Fortitudo Bologna | 69-91 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Brindisi | 78-96 |
| 04/10/26 | A | Sassari | 81-72 |
| 27/09/26 | H | Rimini | 59-84 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWW | 75% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | WLLW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 74.1 | 75.5 | 72.8 |
| Allowed / game | 73.4 | 67.8 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +0.8 | +7.8 | -6.2 |
| Avg total | 147.5 | 143.2 | 151.8 |
| Over 148.25 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 12% | 0% | 25% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 12% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | WLLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 12% | 0% | 25% |
| Points / game | 68.9 | 69.8 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 82.6 | 85.8 | 79.5 |
| Point differential | -13.8 | -16.0 | -11.5 |
| Avg total | 151.5 | 155.5 | 147.5 |
| Over 148.25 | 62% | 50% | 75% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Libertas Livorno | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 81.2 | 69.7 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Avellino Basket | 9 | 8 | 1 | 89% | 82.2 | 74.7 | +7.6 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 79.4 | 74.3 | +5.1 | |
| 4 | Sebastiani Rieti | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 74.1 | 73.4 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Rimini | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 80.4 | 71.8 | +8.7 |
| 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 77.4 | 73.9 | +3.6 | |
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 72.8 | 72.2 | +0.5 | |
| 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 77.4 | 69.6 | +7.9 | |
| 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 82.3 | 77.6 | +4.8 | |
| 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 81.0 | 79.9 | +1.1 | |
| 11 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 77.2 | 76.4 | +0.8 | |
| 12 | Cividale | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 71.8 | 74.1 | -2.3 |
| 13 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 75.0 | 76.4 | -1.4 | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 78.1 | 82.6 | -4.5 | |
| 15 | Ruvo Di Puglia | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 76.1 | 82.5 | -6.4 |
| 16 | Vigevano | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 76.5 | 84.4 | -7.9 |
| 17 | JuVi Cremona | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 75.3 | 77.9 | -2.6 |
| 18 | Cento | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 72.8 | 82.2 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Montecatini | 8 | 1 | 7 | 12% | 68.9 | 82.6 | -13.8 |
| 20 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 75.7 | 83.1 | -7.4 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiani Rieti | 23 | 12 | 23 | 22 | 80 |
| Montecatini | 13 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 62 |
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