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France W vs Italy W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Jun 2025
Tip-off: 14:30
Final 54-69
22-23 14-19 9-11 9-16
Position#3
Record10-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game90.3
Allowed / game50.1
France W
vs
Italy W 🏆
Position#6
Record8-3
FormWWWWL
Points / game69.0
Allowed / game61.4
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenEuroBasket Women - 3rd place· Peace and Friendship Stadium
Women2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

France W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

France WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
USA W
#1
L
66-67
66
67
-1
50avg 86
H11/08
Olympic Games Women
Israel W
#26
W
94-52
94
52
+42
95avg 86
H07/11
European Championship Women
Latvia W
#13
W
82-51
82
51
+31
71avg 86
A10/11
European Championship Women
Ireland W
#35
W
125-24
125
24
+101
142avg 86
H06/02
European Championship Women
Israel W
#26
W
100-39
100
39
+61
115avg 86
A09/02
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#5
W
71-69
71
69
+2
64avg 86
A18/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
92-56
92
56
+36
96avg 86
H19/06
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#20
W
111-37
111
37
+74
116avg 86
H21/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
83-61
83
61
+22
79avg 86
H24/06
European Championship Women
Spain W
#2
L
64-65
64
65
-1
53avg 86
H27/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-15
16-10
18-20
23-22
23-14
24-10
24-8
23-20
20-12
18-12
23-10
21-17
35-7
29-9
34-2
27-6
29-16
21-9
26-3
24-11
22-23
14-21
12-10
23-15
21-17
23-20
20-10
28-9
25-9
35-5
22-15
29-8
35-14
21-17
15-14
12-16
18-18
20-13
8-18
18-16
140.9Avg total
88.8Scored
52.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)90.350.1140.4+40.291%
Season at home (7)91.449.1140.6+42.386%
Season away (4)88.251.8140.0+36.5100%
Last 10 (10)88.852.1140.9+36.780%
Last 5 (5)84.257.6141.8+26.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)63.067.0130.0-4.00%
vs Similar (3)73.767.7141.3+6.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)85.855.8141.7+30.092%
This opponent (Italy W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Italy WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Germany W
#11
W
70-53
70
53
+17
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
68-47
68
47
+21
59avg 61
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
45-56
45
56
-11
28avg 61
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
79-60
79
60
+19
75avg 61
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
69-74
69
74
-5
62avg 61
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
70-61
70
61
+9
66avg 61
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
77-66
77
66
+11
69avg 61
H19/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
65-51
65
51
+14
54avg 61
H21/06
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#5
W
76-74 OT
76
74
+2
68avg 61
H24/06
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
64-66
64
66
-2
54avg 61
H27/06
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-8
15-19
12-12
22-14
25-17
8-9
17-6
18-15
20-23
8-10
7-9
10-14
23-21
15-17
22-6
19-16
27-23
12-18
15-13
15-20
19-18
20-12
17-13
14-18
22-17
23-5
16-26
16-18
18-14
16-9
12-19
19-9
20-17
11-18
19-15
18-18
20-17
13-23
10-17
21-9
129.1Avg total
68.3Scored
60.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)69.061.4130.4+7.673%
Season at home (7)72.161.6133.7+10.686%
Season away (4)63.561.0124.5+2.550%
Last 10 (10)68.360.8129.1+7.570%
Last 5 (5)70.463.6134.0+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)71.071.8142.8-0.840%
vs Similar (2)71.058.5129.5+12.5100%
vs Weaker (23)74.960.1135.0+14.878%
This opponent (France W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +9.2+9.2Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: +9.5+9.5Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +9.2+9.2Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +8.8+8.8Q4: +2.1+2.1
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +9.2+9.2Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: +9.5+9.5Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +9.2+9.2Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +8.8+8.8Q4: +2.1+2.1
France WItaly W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
France WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USA W
#1
D
25-25
25
25
+0
H11/08
Olympic Games Women
Israel W
#26
W
47-24
47
24
+23
H07/11
European Championship Women
Latvia W
#13
W
38-24
38
24
+14
A10/11
European Championship Women
Ireland W
#35
W
64-16
64
16
+48
H06/02
European Championship Women
Israel W
#26
W
50-25
50
25
+25
A09/02
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#5
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A18/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H19/06
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#20
W
60-14
60
14
+46
H21/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H24/06
European Championship Women
Spain W
#2
W
38-31
38
31
+7
H27/06
European Championship Women
72.9Avg total
45.8Scored
27.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.328.670.9+13.677%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.128.372.3+15.887%-
Last 30 away (15)40.529.069.5+11.567%-
Last 10 (10)45.827.172.9+18.780%-
Last 5 (5)46.831.478.2+15.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)30.044.074.0-14.00%-
vs Similar (3)36.731.368.0+5.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)43.427.771.1+15.785%-
This opponent (Italy W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Italy WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany W
#11
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A10/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H06/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A09/02
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#14
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A18/06
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#7
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H19/06
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
34-23
34
23
+11
H21/06
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#5
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H24/06
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H27/06
European Championship Women
67.1Avg total
35.6Scored
31.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.130.969.0+7.270%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.728.766.4+9.075%-
Last 30 away (14)38.633.572.1+5.164%-
Last 10 (10)35.631.567.1+4.150%-
Last 5 (5)36.430.066.4+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)36.237.073.2-0.840%-
vs Similar (2)39.522.562.0+17.0100%-
vs Weaker (23)38.430.368.7+8.074%-
This opponent (France W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
France Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

France W: 88.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.323.2
54.8%
45.4%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.0
35.0%
30.0%27.0
🏀 Free throws17.914.8
82.7%
72.4%14.8
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italy Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy W: 67.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.318.1
43.8%
45.4%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.27.1
32.0%
30.0%21.3
🏀 Free throws14.810.0
67.6%
72.4%10.0
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jun 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
France W
LWWWWWWWWL
Italy W
LWWWWLWLWW
#3
League position
#6
+49.0
Net rating
+10.7
116.4
Offensive rating
96.0
67.4
Defensive rating
85.3
54.0%
Effective FG%
45.3%
33.6%
Opp. effective FG%
42.2%
17.3%
Turnover %
14.2%
38.2%
Off. rebound %
25.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.0%
3-point %
32.0%
78.6%
Assist %
69.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence116.4 · 96.0Defence67.4 · 85.3Shooting54.0% · 45.3%3-point %35.0% · 32.0%Ball care17.3% · 14.2%Off. rebounds38.2% · 25.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ France W   ■ Italy W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
France W wins
0
Italy W wins
No previous meetings.
France Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/06/25HSpain W64-65
24/06/25HLithuania W83-61
21/06/25HSwitzerland W111-37
19/06/25HGreece W92-56
18/06/25ATurkey W71-69
09/02/25AIsrael W100-39
06/02/25HIreland W125-24
10/11/24ALatvia W82-51
07/11/24HIsrael W94-52
11/08/24HUSA W66-67
Italy Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/06/25HBelgium W64-66
24/06/25HTurkey W76-74 OT
21/06/25HLithuania W65-51
19/06/25HSlovenia W77-66
18/06/25ASerbia W70-61
09/02/25ACzech Republic W69-74
06/02/25HGermany W79-60
10/11/24AGreece W45-56
07/11/24HCzech Republic W68-47
12/11/23AGermany W70-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

France W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL91%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %91%86%100%
Points / game90.391.488.2
Allowed / game50.149.151.8
Point differential+40.2+42.3+36.5
Avg total140.4140.6140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+82%86%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Italy W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL73%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %73%86%50%
Points / game69.072.163.5
Allowed / game61.461.661.0
Point differential+7.6+10.6+2.5
Avg total130.4133.7124.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%57%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %9%14%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Spain W11110100%76.561.7+14.7
2 France W1110191%90.350.1+40.2
3 Belgium W1110191%83.256.6+26.5
4 Sweden W97278%75.466.6+8.9
5 Turkey W129375%82.067.7+14.3
6 Italy W118373%69.061.4+7.6
7 Slovenia W96367%77.668.3+9.2
8 Croatia W64267%76.067.8+8.2
9 Luxembourg W64267%63.257.2+6.0
10 Slovakia W64267%71.565.7+5.8
11 Germany W128467%73.370.4+2.9
12 Portugal W96367%60.058.8+1.2
13 Latvia W64267%75.076.5-1.5
14 Serbia W95456%74.859.4+15.3
15 Poland W63350%79.862.3+17.5
16 Hungary W63350%73.567.7+5.8
17 Lithuania W126650%76.672.0+4.6
18 Great Britain W94544%72.363.8+8.6
19 Montenegro W94544%65.466.8-1.3
20 Switzerland W94544%62.269.1-6.9
21 Czech Republic W125742%69.270.8-1.7
22 Greece W93633%68.872.7-3.9
23 Bulgaria W62433%76.381.5-5.2
24 Ukraine W62433%64.270.0-5.8
25 Netherlands W62433%63.770.3-6.7
26 Israel W62433%71.880.2-8.3
27 Finland W62433%62.577.3-14.8
28 Denmark W61517%66.773.8-7.2
29 Iceland W61517%68.877.7-8.8
30 Romania W61517%66.588.3-21.8
31 Estonia W61517%51.577.8-26.3
32 Austria W6060%53.074.0-21.0
33 Bosnia & Herzegovina W6060%54.083.2-29.2
34 North Macedonia W6060%56.086.8-30.8
35 Ireland W6060%55.597.2-41.7
36 Azerbaijan W6060%41.0105.5-64.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
France W22149954
Italy W2319111669
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