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Fresno State vs Utah Valley State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 75-74
33-40 42-34
Position#275
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game64.5
vs
Position#33
Record2-1
FormLLWLW
Points / game94.7
Allowed / game65.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Utah Valley State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego State
#65
L
60-83
60
83
-23
A19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#367
L
69-72 OT
69
72
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#55
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H02/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#306
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H05/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#251
L
68-92
68
92
-24
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#189
L
71-86
71
86
-15
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
88-51
88
51
+37
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
66-67
66
67
-1
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
82-62
82
62
+20
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-43
37-40
32-31
29-30
26-27
35-39
27-24
35-34
32-42
36-50
32-44
39-42
42-29
46-22
36-25
30-42
28-20
54-42
30-42
43-36
141.5Avg total
70.0Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.264.5141.8+12.850%
Season at home (4)77.264.5141.8+12.850%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.071.5141.5-1.530%
Last 5 (5)76.068.8144.8+7.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)69.883.3153.1-13.64%
vs Similar (5)72.866.2139.0+6.660%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Utah Valley State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah Valley StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#297
W
100-59
100
59
+41
H01/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A07/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#308
W
71-66
71
66
+5
A09/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#350
W
74-57
74
57
+17
H13/03
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
68-55
68
55
+13
H15/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
82-89
82
89
-7
H16/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#15
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A20/03
NIT
West Coast Baptist
#713
W
116-35
116
35
+81
H05/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
77-101
77
101
-24
A08/11
NCAA
Westminster UT
#579
W
91-60
91
60
+31
H13/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
52-24
0-0
48-35
0-0
36-29
0-0
37-31
0-0
35-36
0-0
36-30
0-0
31-22
0-0
43-35
0-0
34-24
0-0
34-31
0-0
33-40
0-0
49-49
0-0
32-37
0-0
38-42
0-0
64-16
0-0
52-19
0-0
35-46
0-0
42-55
0-0
43-29
0-0
48-31
148.3Avg total
82.2Scored
66.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)94.765.3160.0+29.367%
Season at home (2)103.547.5151.0+56.0100%
Season away (1)77.0101.0178.0-24.00%
Last 10 (10)82.266.1148.3+16.170%
Last 5 (5)87.272.8160.0+14.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)69.470.8140.2-1.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)79.465.6145.0+13.888%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.9-1.91st half: +9.2+9.22nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +6.9+6.9
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -1.9-1.91st half: +9.2+9.22nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +6.9+6.9
Fresno StateUtah Valley State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego State
#65
L
23-43
23
43
-20
A19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#367
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#55
L
26-27
26
27
-1
H02/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#306
W
27-24
27
24
+3
H05/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#251
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#189
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A12/03
NCAA
Fresno Pacific
#524
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H04/11
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H06/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
28-20
28
20
+8
H08/11
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H13/11
NCAA
63.5Avg total
30.8Scored
32.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.236.366.6-6.127%-
Last 30 at home (17)30.832.563.4-1.735%-
Last 30 away (13)29.541.370.8-11.815%-
Last 10 (10)30.832.763.5-1.950%-
Last 5 (5)33.632.065.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)29.038.567.5-9.512%-
vs Similar (5)33.827.461.2+6.480%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Utah Valley State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah Valley StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#297
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H01/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#208
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A07/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#308
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A09/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#350
W
31-22
31
22
+9
H13/03
NCAA
Seattle
#252
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H15/03
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#29
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H16/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#15
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A20/03
NIT
West Coast Baptist
#713
W
64-16
64
16
+48
H05/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
35-46
35
46
-11
A08/11
NCAA
Westminster UT
#579
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H13/11
NCAA
69.8Avg total
39.5Scored
30.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.531.667.1+3.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.228.367.5+10.980%-
Last 30 away (15)31.934.966.7-3.033%-
Last 10 (10)39.530.369.8+9.260%-
Last 5 (5)41.433.675.0+7.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)31.633.064.6-1.440%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)36.531.167.6+5.462%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Fresno State wins
0
Utah Valley State wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/25HUC San Diego73-78
08/11/25HLong Beach State82-62
06/11/25HUSC Upstate66-67
04/11/25HFresno Pacific88-51
12/03/25ANevada71-86
08/03/25ASan Jose State68-92
05/03/25HWyoming62-58
02/03/25HBoise State61-66
22/02/25AAir Force69-72 OT
19/02/25ASan Diego State60-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/25HWestminster UT91-60
08/11/25ABoise State77-101
05/11/25HWest Coast Baptist116-35
20/03/25ASan Francisco70-79
16/03/25HGrand Canyon82-89
15/03/25HSeattle68-55
13/03/25HUtah Tech74-57
09/03/25ATarleton71-66
07/03/25AAbilene Christian73-60
01/03/25HSouthern Utah100-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWLWL50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game77.277.2-
Allowed / game64.564.5-
Point differential+12.8+12.8-
Avg total141.8141.8-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Utah Valley State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game94.7103.577.0
Allowed / game65.347.5101.0
Point differential+29.3+56.0-24.0
Avg total160.0151.0178.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Diego State220100%75.051.0+24.0
2 Colorado State330100%96.072.3+23.7
3 Utah State440100%87.063.8+23.2
4 Wyoming440100%90.869.5+21.2
5 Boise State43175%81.569.8+11.8
6 New Mexico43175%75.063.5+11.5
7 Nevada43175%81.076.5+4.5
8 Fresno State42250%77.264.5+12.8
9 Grand Canyon42250%80.874.5+6.2
10 UNLV31233%91.785.7+6.0
11 San Jose State3030%69.782.7-13.0
12 Air Force4040%62.576.2-13.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 California Baptist330100%75.065.0+10.0
2 UT Arlington43175%82.856.0+26.8
3 Abilene Christian43175%83.866.2+17.5
4 Utah Valley State32167%94.765.3+29.3
5 Utah Tech63350%80.078.7+1.3
6 Tarleton52340%75.685.0-9.4
7 Southern Utah41325%84.881.5+3.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Fresno State334275
Utah Valley State403474
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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