PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The NCAA showdown on 17 November 2026 pits Gonzaga against Montana State, with Gonzaga the clear favourite thanks to a 97% win probability and a projected 89-66 scoreline that reflects their 1-1 season record, 90.5 points per game and 73.0 allowed, and a flawless 1-0 home record with 109.0 points per game and 68.0 allowed. Montana State, meanwhile, trails with a 1-2 record, 76.0 points per game and 80.0 allowed, and a 0-2 road record that shows 72.5 points per game and 85.0 allowed. Gonzaga's last five games include a 109-68 home win over New Mexico State and a 72-78 away loss to Purdue, while Montana State's recent results feature a 71-86 away loss to Brigham Young and a 74-84 away loss to Colorado State. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting noted but no score given.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 90.5 | 73.0 | 163.5 | +17.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 109.0 | 68.0 | 177.0 | +41.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 72.0 | 78.0 | 150.0 | -6.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.5 | 64.7 | 141.2 | +11.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.2 | 70.4 | 150.6 | +9.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (1) | 61.0 | 101.0 | 162.0 | -40.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (29) | 82.9 | 66.4 | 149.3 | +16.5 | 86% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.0 | 80.0 | 156.0 | -4.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 83.0 | 70.0 | 153.0 | +13.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 72.5 | 85.0 | 157.5 | -12.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.1 | 75.7 | 153.8 | +2.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.6 | 76.6 | 152.2 | -1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 77.0 | 82.0 | 159.0 | -5.0 | 25% |
| vs Similar (12) | 78.9 | 74.1 | 153.0 | +4.8 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 75.5 | 70.2 | 145.7 | +5.4 | 62% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.9 | 32.0 | 70.9 | +7.0 | 70% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.9 | 30.6 | 69.6 | +8.3 | 65% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 38.9 | 33.7 | 72.6 | +5.2 | 77% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.5 | 30.5 | 66.0 | +5.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 34.6 | 69.6 | +0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (1) | 29.0 | 53.0 | 82.0 | -24.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (29) | 39.3 | 31.2 | 70.5 | +8.0 | 72% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 37.2 | 32.9 | 70.1 | +4.3 | 66% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 40.6 | 32.6 | 73.1 | +8.0 | 93% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.1 | 33.1 | 67.2 | +0.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 36.9 | 35.4 | 72.3 | +1.4 | 78% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 34.0 | 72.4 | +4.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 37.3 | 39.0 | 76.3 | -1.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 37.3 | 31.6 | 68.9 | +5.8 | 92% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 36.4 | 33.6 | 70.0 | +2.8 | 46% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | New Mexico State | 109-68 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Purdue | 72-78 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Texas | 68-74 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 73-64 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 79-68 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Oregon State | 65-56 |
| 01/03/26 | A | St. Marys (CA) | 59-70 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Portland | 89-48 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Pacific | 71-62 |
| 19/02/26 | A | San Francisco | 80-59 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Brigham Young | 71-86 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Long Beach State | 83-70 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Colorado State | 74-84 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Idaho | 74-78 |
| 03/03/26 | A | Northern Arizona | 76-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Sacramento State | 82-61 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Portland State | 84-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Idaho State | 76-91 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Weber State | 79-82 OT |
| 15/02/26 | A | Montana | 82-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 90.5 | 109.0 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 68.0 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +17.5 | +41.0 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 163.5 | 177.0 | 150.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 83.0 | 72.5 |
| Allowed / game | 80.0 | 70.0 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -4.0 | +13.0 | -12.5 |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 153.0 | 157.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oregon State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 97.3 | 71.0 | +26.3 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 72.5 | +13.2 |
| 3 |  San Francisco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 63.3 | +9.3 |
| 4 |  Pacific | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 |
| 5 |  St. Marys (CA) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 96.7 | 81.7 | +15.0 |
| 6 |  San Diego Toreros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 78.3 | +5.0 |
| 7 |  Pepperdine | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 |
| 9 |  Portland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 93.5 | -6.8 |
| 10 |  Seattle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 |
| 11 |  Loyola Marymount | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 |
| 12 |  Washington State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.7 | 77.0 | -9.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.0 | 68.7 | +25.3 |
| 2 |  Idaho | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 90.7 | 67.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Sacramento State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.5 | 78.5 | +5.0 |
| 4 |  Montana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 5 |  Portland State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 75.0 | +5.7 |
| 6 | Montana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 |  East. Washington | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 8 |  Weber State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 72.7 | 96.0 | -23.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Arizona | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.0 | 91.0 | -24.0 |
| 10 |  Idaho State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.3 | 92.0 | -24.7 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.
