PythiaBasketballBETA
European Championship WomenRound 3· DVTK Arena
Hungary W will host Denmark W on 17 November 2026 in the European Championship Women, and the Pythia model names Hungary W the clear favourite, assigning it a 92% chance of victory largely because the team is undefeated with a 2-0 record, averaging 67.5 points per game while allowing only 60.0, and sits 6th in the league; Denmark W, by contrast, is 3-5 with 83.2 points per game but 79.6 allowed and 24th in the standings. Hungary W has won its only home game 65-56 against Portugal W and its last five games include two wins and three losses, while Denmark W's road record is 1-2, with recent losses to Germany W, Portugal W and Greece W. The teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia projects a score of 81-65, a total of 146.4 points, and gives Hungary W a 92% chance to cover its line; the model also estimates a 2% probability that the game will go into overtime. The next game will see Hungary W maintain its unbeaten run against a Denmark W side that has struggled on the road.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 67.5 | 60.0 | 127.5 | +7.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 65.0 | 56.0 | 121.0 | +9.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 70.0 | 64.0 | 134.0 | +6.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.4 | 69.0 | 140.4 | +2.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 67.2 | 141.4 | +7.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 60.8 | 69.8 | 130.5 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 70.9 | 69.7 | 140.6 | +1.1 | 43% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 77.2 | 62.2 | 139.4 | +15.0 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 83.2 | 79.6 | 162.9 | +3.6 | 38% |
| Season at home (5) | 84.4 | 76.4 | 160.8 | +8.0 | 40% |
| Season away (3) | 81.3 | 85.0 | 166.3 | -3.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.6 | 81.0 | 160.6 | -1.4 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.2 | 76.8 | 160.0 | +6.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 66.5 | 86.2 | 152.7 | -19.6 | 0% |
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 77.4 | 74.0 | 151.4 | +3.4 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 87.2 | 58.8 | 146.0 | +28.4 | 64% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (27) | 36.3 | 32.9 | 69.2 | +3.3 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 33.9 | 33.9 | 67.8 | -0.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 38.8 | 31.8 | 70.7 | +7.0 | 62% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.4 | 33.6 | 69.0 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 31.4 | 67.8 | +5.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 28.8 | 38.8 | 67.5 | -10.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (7) | 37.7 | 35.1 | 72.9 | +2.6 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker (16) | 37.5 | 30.5 | 68.0 | +7.0 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.4 | 36.6 | 75.0 | +1.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 39.9 | 36.1 | 75.9 | +3.8 | 44% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.8 | 37.2 | 74.0 | -0.4 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.4 | 42.2 | 80.6 | -3.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 39.6 | 78.0 | -1.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 34.1 | 44.6 | 78.7 | -10.5 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (5) | 35.2 | 39.0 | 74.2 | -3.8 | 20% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 43.0 | 29.4 | 72.4 | +13.6 | 71% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.1 | 19.3 | 45.9% | - | 38.7 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 21.9 | 6.7 | 30.5% | - | 20.0 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.6 | 12.3 | 79.3% | - | 12.3 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 45.0 | 17.7 | 39.3% | - | 35.3 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.3 | 6.7 | 27.4% | - | 20.0 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.8 | 10.3 | 65.3% | - | 10.3 |
Hungary W
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Portugal W | 65-56 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Germany W | 70-64 |
| 09/02/25 | A | Bulgaria W | 89-92 OT |
| 06/02/25 | H | Finland W | 80-50 |
| 10/11/24 | A | Slovenia W | 67-74 |
| 07/11/24 | H | Bulgaria W | 68-83 |
| 11/02/24 | A | Spain W | 72-73 |
| 09/02/24 | A | Japan W | 81-75 |
| 08/02/24 | H | Canada W | 55-67 |
| 12/11/23 | A | Finland W | 67-56 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Germany W | 71-88 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Portugal W | 62-79 |
| 17/03/26 | A | Greece W | 77-99 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Croatia W | 81-61 |
| 11/03/26 | H | North Macedonia W | 125-57 |
| 18/11/25 | H | Greece W | 83-97 |
| 15/11/25 | A | Croatia W | 89-77 |
| 12/11/25 | A | North Macedonia W | 78-79 |
| 09/02/25 | H | Great Britain W | 58-75 |
| 06/02/25 | H | Sweden W | 72-98 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 67.5 | 65.0 | 70.0 |
| Allowed / game | 60.0 | 56.0 | 64.0 |
| Point differential | +7.5 | +9.0 | +6.0 |
| Avg total | 127.5 | 121.0 | 134.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 38% |
| Home | LWWLL | 40% |
| Away | LWL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Win % | 38% | 40% | 33% |
| Points / game | 83.2 | 84.4 | 81.3 |
| Allowed / game | 79.6 | 76.4 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | +3.6 | +8.0 | -3.7 |
| Avg total | 162.9 | 160.8 | 166.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 38% | 40% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 53.0 | +49.0 |
| 2 |  Serbia W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 82.8 | 65.0 | +17.8 |
| 3 |  Italy W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 69.0 | 55.5 | +13.5 |
| 4 |  Turkey W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 77.5 | 64.5 | +13.0 |
| 5 |  Spain W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 67.5 | +11.5 |
| 6 | Hungary W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 67.5 | 60.0 | +7.5 |
| 7 |  Poland W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 75.4 | 53.2 | +22.1 |
| 8 |  Bulgaria W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 88.6 | 63.1 | +25.5 |
| 9 |  Latvia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 77.9 | 64.2 | +13.6 |
| 10 |  Israel W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 82.4 | 71.2 | +11.1 |
| 11 |  Great Britain W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 78.4 | 71.0 | +7.4 |
| 12 |  Belgium W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.0 | 74.3 | +11.7 |
| 13 |  Lithuania W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 70.0 | +8.0 |
| 14 |  Finland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 82.3 | -4.3 |
| 15 |  Montenegro W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 74.6 | 62.0 | +12.6 |
| 16 |  Greece W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 89.5 | 77.4 | +12.1 |
| 17 |  Croatia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 80.2 | 73.0 | +7.2 |
| 18 |  Slovenia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 75.8 | 70.1 | +5.6 |
| 19 |  Austria W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 73.9 | 70.2 | +3.6 |
| 20 |  Ukraine W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 72.0 | 66.4 | +5.6 |
| 21 |  Germany W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 76.0 | 70.5 | +5.5 |
| 22 |  Slovakia W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.1 | 64.6 | +5.5 |
| 23 |  Netherlands W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 79.1 | 78.0 | +1.1 |
| 24 | Denmark W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 83.2 | 79.6 | +3.6 |
| 25 |  Luxembourg W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 65.0 | 70.4 | -5.4 |
| 26 |  Portugal W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 67.3 | 67.8 | -0.5 |
| 27 |  Switzerland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 69.7 | 73.2 | -3.5 |
| 28 |  Ireland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 73.5 | 80.3 | -6.8 |
| 29 |  Romania W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 58.7 | 75.0 | -16.3 |
| 30 |  Iceland W | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.2 | 84.0 | -19.8 |
| 31 | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 71.2 | 85.8 | -14.7 |
| 32 |  North Macedonia W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 62.5 | 96.5 | -34.0 |
| 33 |  Czech Republic W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 70.0 | 77.5 | -7.5 |
| 34 | Sweden W | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 35 |  Estonia W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 62.0 | 86.8 | -24.8 |
| 36 |  Norway W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 51.0 | 75.8 | -24.8 |
| 37 |  Cyprus W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 54.2 | 80.2 | -26.0 |
| 38 |  Azerbaijan W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 45.7 | 105.0 | -59.3 |
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