Illinois vs Xavier Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 22 Mar 2025

Tip-off: 01:57

Final 86-73

40-35 46-38

Position#100

Record21-12

FormWWWWL

Points / game83.8

Allowed / game74.6

Illinois 🏆

Xavier

Position#82

Record23-11

FormWWWLW

Points / game77.8

Allowed / game70.7

NCAA

Other2024-25

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Xavier winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Minnesota

#226

95-74

+21

A08/02

NCAA

UCLA

#66

83-78

H12/02

NCAA

Michigan State

#17

65-79

-14

H16/02

NCAA

Wisconsin

#43

74-95

-21

A19/02

NCAA

Duke

67-110

110

-43

H23/02

NCAA

Iowa

#192

81-61

+20

H26/02

NCAA

Michigan

#44

93-73

+20

A02/03

NCAA

Purdue

#72

88-80

H08/03

NCAA

Iowa

#192

106-94

106

+12

H13/03

NCAA

Maryland

#35

65-88

-23

A14/03

NCAA

46-35

49-39

31-25

52-53

41-37

24-42

41-47

33-48

37-54

30-56

37-30

44-31

31-30

62-43

40-42

48-38

49-45

57-49

31-57

34-31

164.9Avg total

81.7Scored

83.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (33)	83.8	74.6	158.4	+9.2	64%
Season at home (21)	85.0	72.4	157.3	+12.6	71%
Season away (12)	81.8	78.5	160.3	+3.3	50%
Last 10 (10)	81.7	83.2	164.9	-1.5	60%
Last 5 (5)	86.6	79.2	165.8	+7.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	67.3	96.3	163.7	-29.0	0%
vs Similar ◀ (14)	83.9	78.1	162.0	+5.9	64%
vs Weaker (13)	86.2	69.3	155.5	+16.9	69%

This opponent (Xavier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Xavier

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Villanova

#138

68-80

-12

A09/02

NCAA

Providence

#300

91-82

A13/02

NCAA

DePaul

#269

85-68

+17

H15/02

NCAA

Butler

#266

76-63

+13

H19/02

NCAA

Seton Hall

#349

73-66

A23/02

NCAA

Creighton

#59

83-61

+22

H01/03

NCAA

Butler

#266

91-78

+13

A06/03

NCAA

Providence

#300

76-68

H08/03

NCAA

Marquette

#67

87-89

-2

H13/03

NCAA

Texas

#168

86-80

A20/03

NCAA

33-33

35-47

45-30

46-52

45-31

40-37

48-31

28-32

40-21

33-45

42-27

41-34

44-40

47-38

36-32

40-36

46-36

41-53

39-47

47-33

155.1Avg total

81.6Scored

73.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (34)	77.8	70.7	148.5	+7.1	68%
Season at home (19)	80.8	67.5	148.3	+13.3	84%
Season away (15)	74.0	74.8	148.8	-0.8	47%
Last 10 (10)	81.6	73.5	155.1	+8.1	80%
Last 5 (5)	84.6	75.2	159.8	+9.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	71.5	80.5	152.0	-9.0	0%
vs Similar ◀ (15)	72.7	73.7	146.4	-1.1	47%
vs Weaker (13)	83.4	67.3	150.7	+16.1	92%

This opponent (Illinois) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

IllinoisXavier

Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by half · pick a half

IllinoisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Minnesota

#226

46-35

+11

A08/02

NCAA

UCLA

#66

31-25

H12/02

NCAA

Michigan State

#17

41-37

H16/02

NCAA

Wisconsin

#43

41-47

-6

A19/02

NCAA

Duke

37-54

-17

H23/02

NCAA

Iowa

#192

37-30

H26/02

NCAA

Michigan

#44

31-30

A02/03

NCAA

Purdue

#72

40-42

-2

H08/03

NCAA

Iowa

#192

49-45

H13/03

NCAA

Maryland

#35

31-57

-26

A14/03

NCAA

78.6Avg total

38.4Scored

40.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.7	34.6	74.3	+5.0	63%	-
Last 30 at home (18)	40.8	33.3	74.1	+7.4	67%	-
Last 30 away (12)	38.0	36.6	74.6	+1.4	58%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.4	40.2	78.6	-1.8	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.6	40.8	78.4	-3.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	34.3	49.7	84.0	-15.3	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (14)	38.5	35.9	74.4	+2.6	57%	-
vs Weaker (13)	42.2	29.8	72.0	+12.3	85%	-

This opponent (Xavier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

XavierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Villanova

#138

33-33

A09/02

NCAA

Providence

#300

45-30

+15

A13/02

NCAA

DePaul

#269

45-31

+14

H15/02

NCAA

Butler

#266

48-31

+17

H19/02

NCAA

Seton Hall

#349

40-21

+19

A23/02

NCAA

Creighton

#59

42-27

+15

H01/03

NCAA

Butler

#266

44-40

A06/03

NCAA

Providence

#300

36-32

H08/03

NCAA

Marquette

#67

46-36

+10

H13/03

NCAA

Texas

#168

39-47

-8

A20/03

NCAA

74.6Avg total

41.8Scored

32.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	36.6	31.5	68.1	+5.1	63%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	38.4	30.5	68.9	+7.9	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	34.8	32.6	67.4	+2.2	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.8	32.8	74.6	+9.0	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.4	36.4	77.8	+5.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	38.5	35.5	74.0	+3.0	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (15)	32.9	32.6	65.5	+0.3	47%	-
vs Weaker (13)	40.6	29.7	70.3	+10.9	85%	-

This opponent (Illinois) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	43.1	40.7	83.8	+2.5	50%	-
Last 30 at home (18)	43.4	41.2	84.6	+2.3	56%	-
Last 30 away (12)	42.7	39.9	82.6	+2.8	42%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.3	43.0	86.3	+0.3	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	49.0	38.4	87.4	+10.6	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	33.0	46.7	79.7	-13.7	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (14)	45.4	42.2	87.6	+3.2	50%	-
vs Weaker (13)	43.0	37.6	80.6	+5.4	54%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.1	38.9	78.9	+1.2	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	42.1	37.5	79.6	+4.5	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	38.1	40.2	78.3	-2.1	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	39.8	40.7	80.5	-0.9	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.2	38.8	82.0	+4.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)	30.0	38.0	68.0	-8.0	0%	-
vs Similar ◀ (15)	39.1	40.1	79.1	-1.0	40%	-
vs Weaker (13)	42.8	37.6	80.4	+5.2	69%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Illinois wins

Xavier wins

No previous meetings.

Illinoislast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
14/03/25	A	Maryland	65-88
13/03/25	H	Iowa	106-94
08/03/25	H	Purdue	88-80
02/03/25	A	Michigan	93-73
26/02/25	H	Iowa	81-61
23/02/25	H	Duke	67-110
19/02/25	A	Wisconsin	74-95
16/02/25	H	Michigan State	65-79
12/02/25	H	UCLA	83-78
08/02/25	A	Minnesota	95-74

Xavierlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
20/03/25	A	Texas	86-80
13/03/25	H	Marquette	87-89
08/03/25	H	Providence	76-68
06/03/25	A	Butler	91-78
01/03/25	H	Creighton	83-61
23/02/25	A	Seton Hall	73-66
19/02/25	H	Butler	76-63
15/02/25	H	DePaul	85-68
13/02/25	A	Providence	91-82
09/02/25	A	Villanova	68-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois

NCAA 2024-25

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWL	64%
Home	LLWWW	71%
Away	LWLWL	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	33	21	12
Win %	64%	71%	50%
Points / game	83.8	85.0	81.8
Allowed / game	74.6	72.4	78.5
Point differential	+9.2	+12.6	+3.3
Avg total	158.4	157.3	160.3
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	42%	48%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (6)	50% (2)	50% (4)
Overtime %	6%	0%	17%

Xavier

NCAA 2024-25

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLW	68%
Home	WWWWL	84%
Away	LWWWW	47%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	34	19	15
Win %	68%	84%	47%
Points / game	77.8	80.8	74.0
Allowed / game	70.7	67.5	74.8
Point differential	+7.1	+13.3	-0.8
Avg total	148.5	148.3	148.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	32%	47%	13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	44% (9)	60% (5)	25% (4)
Overtime %	6%	0%	13%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Michigan State	33	27	6	82%	78.2	67.2	+10.9
2	Maryland	34	26	8	76%	81.6	66.5	+15.2
3	Wisconsin	36	27	9	75%	79.9	70.3	+9.6
4	Michigan	35	26	9	74%	78.0	71.1	+6.9
5	Oregon	33	24	9	73%	76.2	70.9	+5.3
6	UCLA	33	23	10	70%	74.7	65.2	+9.5
7	Purdue	34	23	11	68%	77.8	70.9	+6.9
8	Illinois	33	21	12	64%	83.8	74.6	+9.2
9	Indiana	32	19	13	59%	74.7	72.0	+2.6
10	Nebraska	31	17	14	55%	75.4	72.9	+2.5
11	Ohio State	32	17	15	53%	78.8	73.5	+5.3
12	Penn State	31	16	15	52%	79.1	73.2	+5.9
13	Northwestern	33	17	16	52%	72.4	69.2	+3.3
14	Iowa	33	17	16	52%	82.5	79.7	+2.8
15	USC	33	16	17	48%	76.9	75.5	+1.4
16	Rutgers	32	15	17	47%	77.0	77.6	-0.5
17	Minnesota	32	15	17	47%	68.1	69.7	-1.7
18	Washington	30	12	18	40%	71.4	75.9	-4.5

Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

Big East conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	St. John's (N.Y.)	35	31	4	89%	78.8	65.5	+13.3
2	Creighton	35	25	10	71%	75.6	69.7	+5.9
3	Uconn	34	24	10	71%	77.1	67.8	+9.3
4	Marquette	34	23	11	68%	76.6	68.7	+7.8
5	Xavier	34	23	11	68%	77.8	70.7	+7.1
6	Villanova	33	19	14	58%	73.4	67.5	+5.9
7	Georgetown	32	17	15	53%	71.7	68.8	+2.8
8	Butler	33	14	19	42%	73.8	73.8	+0.0
9	DePaul	33	14	19	42%	72.8	74.2	-1.4
10	Providence	32	12	20	38%	71.3	72.5	-1.2
11	Seton Hall	32	7	25	22%	61.6	70.2	-8.6