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Iowa vs Creighton Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 81-65
Projected total 146.0
Scheduled
Position#151
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game64.7
Iowa
USA
Vs
92%
■ IOWA 92%■ CREI 8%
Pythia win probability
Creighton
USA
Position#160
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game68.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Iowa hosts Creighton on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Iowa the clear favourite, rating them 92% to win largely because of their 2-1 record and an average of 85.0 points scored against 64.7 allowed, while Creighton is 2-1 with 80.3 points for and 68.3 against; Iowa's 2-1 home record mirrors the season and they have won three of their last five games, including a 91-47 win over Eastern Illinois, a 76-54 win over Lipscomb, and a 88-93 loss to Virginia Tech, whereas Creighton's 0-1 road record shows a single loss to Kansas State 82-89 and two home wins over Le Moyne 83-55 and UMKC 76-61. Their only prior meeting ended with Creighton defeating Iowa 92-84 on 14 November 2023. Pythia projects an 81-65 score, with a 92% chance for Iowa and 8% for Creighton, a total of 146.0 points, and a 88% probability that Iowa will cover the -3.5 spread; the over/under line is 146.0 with a 50% chance of the over, and the game has a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Iowa win
92.0%fair 1.09
Best odds1.52
Implied63.5%
Edge+28.6pp
Creighton win
8.0%fair 12.57
Best odds2.64
Implied36.5%
Edge-28.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IowaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
75-84 OT
75
84
-9
A08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
75-64
75
64
+11
H11/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-61
67
61
+6
A20/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A22/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A26/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
59-71
59
71
-12
A28/03
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
W
76-54
76
54
+22
H04/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#323
W
91-47
91
47
+44
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
88-93 OT
88
93
-5
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-30
44-40
25-26
50-38
30-34
39-38
32-25
35-36
33-31
40-41
43-46
34-25
32-28
27-43
38-29
38-25
41-20
50-27
40-41
39-38
143.9Avg total
75.0Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.064.7149.7+20.367%
Season at home (3)85.064.7149.7+20.367%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.068.9143.9+6.160%
Last 5 (5)78.267.2145.4+11.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)67.272.2139.5-5.025%
vs Similar (12)71.270.8142.0+0.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)79.162.8141.9+16.479%
This opponent (Creighton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CreightonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Villanova
#46
L
69-80
69
80
-11
H14/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
91-84
91
84
+7
A19/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
52-81
52
81
-29
A21/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
71-72
71
72
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
76-79
76
79
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
76-59
76
59
+17
A04/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
61-72
61
72
-11
A12/03
NCAA
UMKC
#260
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H03/11
NCAA
Le Moyne
#217
W
83-55
83
55
+28
H06/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#162
L
82-89
82
89
-7
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-41
42-39
45-45
46-39
27-42
25-39
38-30
33-42
37-39
39-40
32-36
44-23
26-33
35-39
33-39
43-22
54-17
29-38
40-40
42-49
146.9Avg total
73.7Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)80.368.3148.7+12.067%
Season at home (2)79.558.0137.5+21.5100%
Season away (1)82.089.0171.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)73.773.2146.9+0.540%
Last 5 (5)75.667.2142.8+8.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)64.876.1140.9-11.327%
vs Similar (16)81.475.8157.2+5.756%
vs Weaker (3)80.368.3148.7+12.067%
This opponent (Iowa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5
Over 141.5
60.8%
@ 1.53-1.1pp
Under 141.5
39.2%
@ 2.55+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.32
Over/Under 146.5 · main line
Over 146.5
48.5%
@ 1.98-0.8pp
Under 146.5
51.5%
@ 1.92+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.89
SBO
1.88
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 151.5
Over 151.5
36.5%
@ 2.60+0.9pp
Under 151.5
63.5%
@ 1.45-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42

📊 3. Team Totals

Iowa total 71
Over 71
85.6%
Under 71
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iowa total 75 · main line
Over 75
74.1%
@ 1.85+24.1pp
Under 75
25.9%
@ 1.85-24.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Iowa total 79
Over 79
59.0%
Under 79
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Creighton total 67
Over 67
40.8%
Under 67
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Creighton total 71 · main line
Over 71
26.0%
@ 1.85-24.0pp
Under 71
74.0%
@ 1.85+24.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Creighton total 75
Over 75
14.9%
Under 75
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Iowa -7.5
IOWA -7.5
78.4%
@ 2.50+38.9pp
CREI +7.5
21.6%
@ 1.57-38.9pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.22
CREI
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
Spread Iowa -4.5 · main line
IOWA -4.5
85.5%
@ 1.95+35.9pp
CREI +4.5
14.5%
@ 1.91-35.9pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.87
CREI
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
SBO
1.81
Spread Iowa -1.5
IOWA -1.5
91.0%
@ 1.63+31.6pp
CREI +1.5
9.0%
@ 2.35-31.6pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Marathon Be
1.63
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.53
CREI
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: -0.3-0.32nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +0.8+0.8
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: -0.3-0.32nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +0.8+0.8
IowaCreighton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
IowaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nebraska
#21
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A08/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
25-26
25
26
-1
H11/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A12/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
32-25
32
25
+7
A20/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A22/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A26/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
32-28
32
28
+4
A28/03
NCAA
Lipscomb
#182
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H04/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#323
W
41-20
41
20
+21
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#45
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H11/11
NCAA
65.0Avg total
34.0Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)35.030.465.5+4.660%23%
Last 30 at home (16)35.827.863.5+8.062%19%
Last 30 away (14)34.233.567.7+0.757%29%
Last 10 (10)34.031.065.0+3.050%20%
Last 5 (5)38.832.871.6+6.060%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.831.060.8-1.250%0%
vs Similar (12)34.932.066.9+2.958%25%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)36.628.965.6+7.764%29%
This opponent (Creighton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CreightonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Villanova
#46
L
27-41
27
41
-14
H14/02
NCAA
Uconn
#11
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A19/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
27-42
27
42
-15
A21/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H26/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H28/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A04/03
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A12/03
NCAA
UMKC
#260
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H03/11
NCAA
Le Moyne
#217
W
54-17
54
17
+37
H06/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#162
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A11/11
NCAA
72.1Avg total
35.9Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)36.336.472.6-0.147%63%
Last 30 at home (17)38.436.775.1+1.753%76%
Last 30 away (13)33.535.969.4-2.538%46%
Last 10 (10)35.936.272.1-0.320%50%
Last 5 (5)37.033.070.0+4.020%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)29.437.566.9-8.29%27%
vs Similar (16)39.936.476.2+3.575%81%
vs Weaker (3)42.332.074.3+10.333%100%
This opponent (Iowa) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
IOWA win
no forecast
@ 1.60
CREI win
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Spread Iowa -2 · main line
IOWA -2
no forecast
@ 1.85
CREI +2
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 69.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Iowa 1st half total 36 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Creighton 1st half total 33.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Iowa -3.5
IOWA -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
CREI +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Over/Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.57
1st half Over/Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Iowa -4.5
IOWA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
CREI +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Iowa -5.5
IOWA -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
CREI +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Iowa +1.5
IOWA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
CREI -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Spread Iowa -6.5
IOWA -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
CREI +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half Spread Iowa +2.5
IOWA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
CREI -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
IOWA
no forecast
@ 1.67
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
CREI
no forecast
@ 2.45

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
IOWA win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
CREI win + total 146.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: IOWA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CREI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Iowa -877.7%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+41.9pp
Iowa (regulation)90.8%1.53
Marathon Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53		---+32.1pp
Iowa win92.0%1.50
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathon Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50		+28.6pp
Iowa over 73.578.1%1.69
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.62		---+24.5pp
Creighton under 7174.0%1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		---+24.0pp
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🔒 70 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Iowa wins
1
Creighton wins
DateGameScore
15/11/23Creighton v Iowa92-84
Iowalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HVirginia Tech88-93 OT
07/11/26HEastern Illinois91-47
04/11/26HLipscomb76-54
28/03/26AIllinois59-71
26/03/26ANebraska77-71
22/03/26AFlorida73-72
20/03/26AClemson67-61
12/03/26AOhio State69-72
11/03/26HMaryland75-64
08/03/26ANebraska75-84 OT
Creightonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AKansas State82-89
06/11/26HLe Moyne83-55
03/11/26HUMKC76-61
12/03/26ASeton Hall61-72
04/03/26AButler76-59
28/02/26HProvidence76-79
26/02/26HDePaul71-72
21/02/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)52-81
19/02/26AUconn91-84
14/02/26HVillanova69-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Iowa
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %67%67%-
Points / game85.085.0-
Allowed / game64.764.7-
Point differential+20.3+20.3-
Avg total149.7149.7-
Over 146.533%33%-
Win by 10+67%67%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %33%33%-
Creighton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game80.379.582.0
Allowed / game68.358.089.0
Point differential+12.0+21.5-7.0
Avg total148.7137.5171.0
Over 146.533%0%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
13 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
14 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier440100%88.555.8+32.8
2 St. John's (N.Y.)330100%90.762.3+28.3
3 Uconn440100%84.558.0+26.5
4 DePaul440100%77.058.0+19.0
5 Georgetown440100%83.572.0+11.5
6 Villanova43175%86.565.2+21.2
7 Providence43175%71.557.8+13.8
8 Seton Hall43175%69.261.5+7.8
9 Marquette32167%80.353.0+27.3
10 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
11 Butler42250%85.075.2+9.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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