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James Madison vs Miami (Ohio) Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 77-86
41-35 36-51
Position#266
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
James Madison
USA
Vs
36%
64%
■ JAME 36%■ MIAM 64%
Pythia win probability
Projected 74-78
Projected total 152.7
Miami (Ohio) 🏆
USA
Position#177
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

James Madison will host Miami (Ohio) on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the model names Miami (Ohio) the favourite and projects a close 74-78 finish with the home side winning only 36% of the time; the projected total of 152.7 points sits below the 155.5-point line, giving the over a 43% chance. Miami (Ohio) has a 3-2 record over its last five games, highlighted by a 89-79 win over SMU and a 56-78 loss to Tennessee, while James Madison also sits 3-2, with a recent 87-72 victory over Louisiana Lafayette and a narrow 68-69 defeat to Coastal Carolina. The spread is flat at 0.0, so the model sees a 36% probability that James Madison covers, and there is a 5% chance the game will go into overtime. The projected score of 74-78 reflects the model's view that Miami (Ohio) will edge the contest by four points, a margin that is consistent with the 0.0 line and the 36% cover probability. Miami (Ohio) will need to maintain the offensive output that led to its 89-79 win over SMU to secure the predicted victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

James Madison winLost
35.6%fair 2.81
Best odds1.91
Implied50.0%
Edge-14.4pp
Miami (Ohio) winWon
64.4%fair 1.55
Best odds1.90
Implied50.0%
Edge+14.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

James MadisonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
L
61-64
61
64
-3
H05/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
73-71
73
71
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
81-79 OT
81
79
+2
H13/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
80-65
80
65
+15
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
82-66
82
66
+16
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
87-72
87
72
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-29
29-35
32-32
41-39
41-33
29-37
29-24
40-34
32-32
35-33
40-26
40-39
38-37
44-29
33-31
35-38
37-27
50-45
33-35
47-51
144.3Avg total
74.8Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.869.5144.3+5.370%
Last 5 (5)79.471.6151.0+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)70.876.8147.7-6.050%
vs Similar (19)75.574.9150.4+0.647%
vs Weaker (5)75.268.4143.6+6.880%
Miami (Ohio)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
W
90-74
90
74
+16
H14/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
86-77
86
77
+9
A18/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
91-77
91
77
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A24/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
69-67
69
67
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
74-72
74
72
+2
H04/03
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
110-108 OT
110
108
+2
A07/03
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
83-87
83
87
-4
H12/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
89-79
89
79
+10
A19/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
56-78
56
78
-22
A20/03
NCAA
1H
2H
43-35
47-39
41-36
45-41
45-30
46-47
43-22
31-42
26-30
43-37
40-35
34-37
54-48
46-52
39-37
44-50
43-34
46-45
32-51
24-27
160.5Avg total
82.2Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.278.3160.5+3.980%
Last 5 (5)82.484.8167.2-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)76.073.0149.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker (29)89.877.2167.0+12.593%
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
54.5%
@ 1.50-7.9pp
Under 150.5
45.5%
@ 2.55+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
42.5%
@ 1.94-7.2pp
Under 155.5
57.5%
@ 1.89+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Over 160.5
Over 160.5
31.2%
@ 2.60-5.3pp
Under 160.5
68.8%
@ 1.47+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

James Madison total 73.5Actual: James Madison over 73.5
Over 73.5
52.5%
@ 1.39-12.7pp
Under 73.5
47.5%
@ 2.60+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
James Madison total 77.5 · main lineActual: James Madison under 77.5
Over 77.5
37.3%
@ 1.85-12.7pp
Under 77.5
62.7%
@ 1.88+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
James Madison total 81.5Actual: James Madison under 81.5
Over 81.5
24.1%
@ 2.50-12.2pp
Under 81.5
75.9%
@ 1.42+12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42
Miami (Ohio) total 73.5Actual: Miami (Ohio) over 73.5
Over 73.5
68.5%
@ 1.38+3.0pp
Under 73.5
31.5%
@ 2.62-3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Miami (Ohio) total 77.5 · main lineActual: Miami (Ohio) over 77.5
Over 77.5
53.5%
@ 1.88+3.0pp
Under 77.5
46.5%
@ 1.88-3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Miami (Ohio) total 81.5Actual: Miami (Ohio) over 81.5
Over 81.5
38.0%
@ 2.52+2.0pp
Under 81.5
62.0%
@ 1.42-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread James Madison -3Actual: Miami (Ohio) +3
JAME -3
27.3%
@ 2.34-13.6pp
MIAM +3
72.7%
@ 1.62+13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.22
MIAM
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.58
Spread James Madison 0 · main lineActual: Miami (Ohio) 0
JAME 0
35.6%
@ 1.87-14.3pp
MIAM 0
64.4%
@ 1.86+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Marathon Be
1.87
MIAM
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread James Madison +3Actual: Miami (Ohio) -3
JAME +3
44.2%
@ 1.64-13.0pp
MIAM -3
55.8%
@ 2.19+13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Bet365
1.64
MIAM
Bet365
2.19

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: -1.1-1.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: -1.1-1.1
James MadisonMiami (Ohio)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
James MadisonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H05/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H13/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
40-26
40
26
+14
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A05/03
NCAA
65.3Avg total
34.7Scored
30.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77
Last 30 (30)34.334.568.8-0.253%13%
Last 30 at home (15)35.732.167.7+3.673%7%
Last 30 away (15)32.936.969.9-4.033%20%
Last 10 (10)34.730.665.3+4.170%0%
Last 5 (5)36.231.267.4+5.080%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)31.534.065.5-2.567%0%
vs Similar (19)34.536.470.9-1.937%21%
vs Weaker (5)37.027.864.8+9.2100%0%
Miami (Ohio)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H14/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A18/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
43-22
43
22
+21
A24/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
54-48
54
48
+6
A07/03
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H12/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A19/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A20/03
NCAA
76.4Avg total
40.6Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77
Last 30 (30)44.135.379.3+8.880%50%
Last 30 at home (15)45.136.281.3+8.973%53%
Last 30 away (15)43.134.377.4+8.787%47%
Last 10 (10)40.635.876.4+4.880%30%
Last 5 (5)41.641.082.6+0.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)33.036.069.0-3.00%0%
vs Weaker (29)44.435.279.7+9.283%52%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: James Madison win
JAME win
no forecast
@ 1.91
MIAM win
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Spread James Madison +1 · main lineActual: James Madison +1
JAME +1
no forecast
@ 1.82
MIAM -1
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 77 · main lineActual: Under 77
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
James Madison 1st half total 38 · main lineActual: James Madison over 38
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Miami (Ohio) 1st half total 39 · main lineActual: Miami (Ohio) under 39
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread James Madison +2.5Actual: James Madison +2.5
JAME +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
MIAM -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread James Madison -1.5Actual: James Madison -1.5
JAME -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
MIAM +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread James Madison +3.5Actual: James Madison +3.5
JAME +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
MIAM -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Spread James Madison -2.5Actual: James Madison -2.5
JAME -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
MIAM +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread James Madison +4.5Actual: James Madison +4.5
JAME +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
MIAM -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.82
1st half Spread James Madison -3.5Actual: James Madison -3.5
JAME -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
MIAM +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Miami (Ohio) (regulation)
JAME
no forecast
@ 2.08
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
MIAM
no forecast
@ 1.95

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
JAME win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
MIAM win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: JAME leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MIAM leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Miami (Ohio) +681.2%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+13.7ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +578.6%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+13.6ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +372.7%1.60
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.58		---+13.6ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +2.570.8%1.62
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.58		-+13.6ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +3.573.5%1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53		---+13.6ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +4.576.4%1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47		---+13.2ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +475.7%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+13.2ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +5.579.2%1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39		---+13.1ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +6.581.7%1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34		---+12.8ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +7.584.0%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+12.4ppWon
James Madison under 81.575.9%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+12.2ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +8.586.0%1.24
Betano
1.24		----+11.9ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +9.587.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+11.6ppWon
James Madison under 80.572.9%1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50		---+11.4ppWon
James Madison under 82.578.8%1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34		---+10.5ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +14.594.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+8.6ppWon
James Madison under 84.583.8%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+8.5ppWon
James Madison under 87.589.7%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+8.3ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +19.597.4%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+8.0ppWon
James Madison under 86.587.9%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+7.4ppWon
Miami (Ohio) +24.598.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+6.6ppWon
James Madison under 88.591.3%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+5.7ppWon
James Madison under 90.593.8%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+5.5ppWon
Under 16272.3%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+5.3ppLost
Under 161.570.8%1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40		---+5.3ppLost
Under 16170.2%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+5.3ppLost
Overtime: no94.9%1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03		---+5.3pp-
Under 162.572.8%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35		---+5.0ppLost
Under 16374.3%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+4.8ppPush
Under 163.574.8%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+3.8ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 60.596.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.7ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 62.594.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+3.3ppWon
Under 165.578.4%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+3.1ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 67.585.7%1.12
Bet365
1.12		----+2.7ppWon
Under 175.591.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+2.6ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 72.571.9%1.32
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.32		---+2.4ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 64.591.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+2.3ppWon
James Madison +20.591.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.3ppWon
Under 170.585.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+2.1ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 68.583.4%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+2.0ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 70.578.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+1.9ppWon
Miami (Ohio) over 66.587.8%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+1.7ppWon
Over 130.591.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.2ppWon
Miami (Ohio) under 84.572.5%1.26
Bet365
1.26		-----1.3ppLost
James Madison +15.584.0%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----2.1ppWon
James Madison over 62.587.3%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----3.2ppWon
Over 135.584.9%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----4.1ppWon
James Madison over 64.582.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----5.6ppWon
James Madison +10.571.2%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----6.6ppWon
Over 140.576.6%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----7.2ppWon
James Madison over 66.577.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----8.3ppWon
James Madison over 68.570.9%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----9.6ppWon
James Madison over 67.574.1%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----9.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
James Madison wins
0
Miami (Ohio) wins
No previous meetings.
James Madisonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26ASouthern Miss80-86
04/03/26HLouisiana Lafayette87-72
28/02/26HCoastal Carolina68-69
26/02/26HGeorgia Southern82-66
21/02/26AGeorgia State80-65
19/02/26ACoastal Carolina67-65
14/02/26HAppalachian State69-58
13/02/26HGeorgia State81-79 OT
07/02/26HToledo73-71
05/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette61-64
Miami (Ohio)last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/03/26ATennessee56-78
19/03/26ASMU Mustangs89-79
12/03/26HUMass83-87
07/03/26AOhio110-108 OT
04/03/26HToledo74-72
27/02/26AWestern Michigan69-67
24/02/26AEastern Michigan74-64
21/02/26HBowling Green91-77
18/02/26AUMass86-77
14/02/26HOhio90-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

James Madison
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 155.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Miami (Ohio)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 155.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
2 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
2 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
James Madison413677
Miami (Ohio)355186
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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