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Karsiyaka vs Denizli Basket Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 10:00
Projected 88-78
Projected total 165.9
Scheduled
Position#10
Record4-4
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game82.6
Vs
79%
21%
■ KAR 79%■ DEN 21%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Position#15
Record2-6
FormLLLLW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game88.9
TurkeyBasketbol Süper LigiRound 9· Mustafa Kemal Ataturk Sport Hall
Domestic2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Karsiyaka host Denizli Basket in the Basketbol Super Ligi. Pythia makes Karsiyaka the favourite at 79% and projects 88-78, about 166 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Karsiyaka are 4-4 this season (80.5 scored, 82.6 allowed a game), form WLWWL; Denizli Basket are 2-6 this season (83.1 scored, 88.9 allowed a game), form LLLLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karsiyaka win
78.5%fair 1.27
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denizli Basket win
21.5%fair 4.66
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KarsiyakaTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKarsiyaka
Date
Competition
Tofas
#9
L
78-87
78
87
-9
69avg 76
A03/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bursaspor
#12
W
84-82
84
82
+2
71avg 76
H10/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Turk Telekom
#2
L
72-73
72
73
-1
71avg 76
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#6
W
78-71 OT
78
71
+7
64avg 76
H02/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
82-92
82
92
-10
80avg 76
A10/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cayirova
#14
W
95-79
95
79
+16
96avg 76
H16/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Fenerbahce
#3
L
72-97
72
97
-25
60avg 76
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bursaspor
#16
W
86-83
86
83
+3
78avg 76
A01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#7
W
84-83
84
83
+1
no box
H09/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bordo Bandirma
#12
L
75-83
75
83
-8
no box
A14/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
26-24
11-14
21-26
16-14
15-34
31-18
22-16
15-17
29-20
15-16
13-20
18-13
17-21
15-14
15-17
13-20
21-22
24-28
24-22
24-22
24-19
23-21
24-17
16-25
20-24
14-25
22-23
21-19
21-20
24-18
20-26
17-22
23-16
12-21
32-24
27-26
14-18
17-22
17-17
163.6Avg total
80.6Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.582.6163.1-2.150%
Season at home (4)82.282.5164.8-0.275%
Season away (4)78.882.8161.5-4.025%
Last 10 (10)80.683.0163.6-2.450%
Last 5 (5)82.485.0167.4-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)78.385.6163.9-7.424%
vs Similar ◀ (12)87.285.7172.8+1.558%
vs Weaker (1)86.083.0169.0+3.0100%
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denizli BasketTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBasket
Date
Competition
Benfica
#6
L
91-96
91
96
-5
84avg 77
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#9
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 77
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
80-76
80
76
+4
77avg 77
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#2
L
76-97
76
97
-21
70avg 77
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
L
86-94 OT
86
94
-8
77avg 77
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Galatasaray
#6
L
74-87
74
87
-13
70avg 77
H31/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bakken Bears
#22
L
76-80
76
80
-4
no box
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
86-97
86
97
-11
no box
A08/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
L
73-86
73
86
-13
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cayirova
#14
W
101-98 OT
101
98
+3
no box
H15/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-28
22-22
17-27
29-19
16-17
12-23
25-16
17-19
19-24
23-15
15-17
23-20
13-29
27-18
17-28
19-22
18-14
24-19
12-27
26-20
17-17
12-24
21-23
24-23
18-22
20-14
21-24
17-20
27-24
23-27
11-28
25-18
19-19
9-33
21-16
24-18
26-28
16-19
27-19
20-23
169.9Avg total
81.3Scored
88.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)83.188.9172.0-5.825%
Season at home (4)86.586.8173.2-0.250%
Season away (4)79.891.0170.8-11.20%
Last 10 (10)81.388.6169.9-7.320%
Last 5 (5)82.089.6171.6-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)80.186.2166.3-6.127%
vs Similar ◀ (9)73.677.8151.3-4.244%
vs Weaker (9)76.973.0149.9+3.967%
This opponent (Karsiyaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1252%1302%1354%1406%1458%15010%15512%16012%16511%17010%1757%1805%1853%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
0%1202%1304%1408%15012%16011%1707%1803%1901%2000%210
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 160-164 (12%).
Over/Under 161
Over 161
61.2%
Under 161
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
49.1%
Under 166
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
37.2%
Under 171
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Karsiyaka total 80.5
Over 80.5
75.1%
Under 80.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karsiyaka total 84.5
Over 84.5
61.6%
Under 84.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karsiyaka total 88.5
Over 88.5
46.4%
Under 88.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 78
Over 78
50.7%
Under 78
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 82
Over 82
35.1%
Under 82
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denizli Basket total 86
Over 86
22.0%
Under 86
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-241%-211%-182%-153%-124%-96%-67%-35%+09%+310%+610%+99%+128%+157%+186%+214%+243%+272%+302%+331%+361%+39
1%-212%-154%-97%-39%+310%+98%+156%+213%+272%+331%+39
Margin from Karsiyaka's side (positive = Karsiyaka win). Pythia's expected margin is +9.2; Karsiyaka win by 1+ in 71% of simulations.
Spread Karsiyaka -3
KAR -3
72.2%
DEN +3
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
KAR
No market prices yet.
DEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Karsiyaka 0
KAR 0
78.5%
DEN 0
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
KAR
No market prices yet.
DEN
No market prices yet.
Spread Karsiyaka +3
KAR +3
84.5%
DEN -3
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
KAR
No market prices yet.
DEN
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +2.2+2.2
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +2.2+2.2
KarsiyakaDenizli Basket
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KarsiyakaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tofas
#9
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A03/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bursaspor
#12
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H10/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Turk Telekom
#2
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A26/09
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Galatasaray
#6
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H02/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A10/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cayirova
#14
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H16/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Fenerbahce
#3
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bursaspor
#16
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H09/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bordo Bandirma
#12
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A14/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
81.6Avg total
39.7Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.943.683.5-3.727%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.542.781.2-4.127%-
Last 30 away (15)41.344.585.7-3.227%-
Last 10 (10)39.741.981.6-2.250%-
Last 5 (5)41.442.283.6-0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)38.142.981.0-4.918%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)42.344.887.2-2.533%-
vs Weaker (1)42.039.081.0+3.0100%-
This opponent (Denizli Basket) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denizli BasketLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Benfica
#6
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trabzonspor
#9
L
28-40
28
40
-12
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Geneva Lions
#17
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Turk Telekom
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A24/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Absheron Lions
#45
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Galatasaray
#6
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H31/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bakken Bears
#22
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Bahcesehir Kol.
#1
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A08/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
BC Prievidza
#23
L
28-52
28
52
-24
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cayirova
#14
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H15/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
82.0Avg total
38.4Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.540.678.1-3.130%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.437.875.2-0.443%-
Last 30 away (16)37.643.180.6-5.519%-
Last 10 (10)38.443.682.0-5.230%-
Last 5 (5)37.445.482.8-8.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.345.886.1-5.527%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)33.937.971.8-4.022%-
vs Weaker (9)37.836.774.4+1.144%-
This opponent (Karsiyaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Karsiyakatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Karsiyaka: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.1 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.719.6
52.0%
54.8%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.47.9
36.9%
35.9%23.7
🏀 Free throws22.916.5
72.1%
75.9%16.5
They take 59.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denizli Baskettheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denizli Basket: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.1 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.220.0
51.0%
54.8%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.28.3
35.8%
35.9%24.9
🏀 Free throws20.816.9
81.2%
75.9%16.9
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Karsiyaka
LWWLWLWLWL
Denizli Basket
WLLLLLLWLL
#10
League position
#15
+0.5
Net rating
-2.3
96.8
Offensive rating
95.7
96.3
Defensive rating
98.0
53.2%
Effective FG%
52.0%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
14.8%
Turnover %
15.3%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.9%
3-point %
35.8%
63.3%
Assist %
58.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence96.8 · 95.7Defence96.3 · 98.0Shooting53.2% · 52.0%3-point %36.9% · 35.8%Ball care14.8% · 15.3%Free throws0.39 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Karsiyaka   ■ Denizli Basket
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Karsiyaka wins
0
Denizli Basket wins
No previous meetings.
Karsiyakalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ABordo Bandirma75-83
09/11/26HBesiktas84-83
01/11/26ABursaspor86-83
25/10/26HFenerbahce72-97
16/10/26HCayirova95-79
10/10/26ABahcesehir Kol.82-92
02/10/26HGalatasaray78-71 OT
26/09/26ATurk Telekom72-73
10/05/26HBursaspor84-82
03/05/26ATofas78-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HCayirova101-98 OT
11/11/26ABC Prievidza73-86
08/11/26ABahcesehir Kol.86-97
03/11/26HBakken Bears76-80
31/10/26HGalatasaray74-87
28/10/26AAbsheron Lions86-94 OT
24/10/26ATurk Telekom76-97
21/10/26AGeneva Lions80-76
18/10/26HTrabzonspor70-75
14/10/26ABenfica91-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Karsiyaka
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL50%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%75%25%
Points / game80.582.278.8
Allowed / game82.682.582.8
Point differential-2.1-0.2-4.0
Avg total163.1164.8161.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Denizli Basket
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW25%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game83.186.579.8
Allowed / game88.986.891.0
Point differential-5.8-0.2-11.2
Avg total172.0173.2170.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bahcesehir Kol.87188%92.882.9+9.9
2 Turk Telekom86275%83.675.0+8.6
3 Fenerbahce86275%85.679.0+6.6
4 Anadolu Efes85362%84.679.1+5.5
5 Petkim Spor85362%84.283.6+0.6
6 Galatasaray84450%87.679.8+7.9
7 Besiktas84450%83.184.4-1.2
8 Tofas84450%80.582.0-1.5
9 Trabzonspor84450%80.282.2-2.0
10 Karsiyaka84450%80.582.6-2.1
11 Esenler Erokspor84450%79.685.8-6.1
12 Bordo Bandirma83538%82.485.5-3.1
13 Korfez Basket83538%82.085.2-3.2
14 Cayirova82625%83.989.6-5.8
15 Denizli Basket82625%83.188.9-5.8
16 Bursaspor81712%74.482.6-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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