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Keilor Thunder vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 18 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 85-80
17-22 25-20 22-18 21-20
Position#15
Record7-13
FormLWLLL
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game88.4
vs
Position#17
Record7-13
FormLWLLL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game88.8
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Keilor Thunder v Geelong
18 Jul 2025
KEIL85
GEEL80
14 Apr 2024
KEIL103
GEEL97
04 Jun 2023
KEIL106
GEEL104
06 Aug 2022
KEIL98
GEEL74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kilsyth
#7
L
78-94
78
94
-16
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
80-90
80
90
-10
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
74-101
74
101
-27
A06/06
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
77-66
77
66
+11
H14/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A21/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
95-96
95
96
-1
H28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
108-99
108
99
+9
H05/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
69-70
69
70
-1
A08/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
69-79
69
79
-10
A11/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
82-93
82
93
-11
H13/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-20
18-28
17-26
18-20
30-20
17-18
15-23
18-29
22-24
17-29
16-21
19-27
22-21
10-16
23-14
22-15
21-17
32-22
18-18
25-21
18-20
23-30
27-15
27-31
31-24
29-16
15-24
33-35
21-25
17-23
17-10
14-12
22-25
18-18
11-13
18-23
20-21
22-21
20-24
20-27
169.4Avg total
82.8Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)82.588.4170.9-6.035%
Season at home (10)86.089.2175.2-3.250%
Season away (10)78.987.6166.5-8.720%
Last 10 (10)82.886.6169.4-3.830%
Last 5 (5)84.687.4172.0-2.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)78.287.4165.6-9.321%
vs Similar ◀ (6)83.583.8167.3-0.367%
vs Weaker (5)92.885.2178.0+7.680%
This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#6
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A24/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
W
89-86
89
86
+3
H31/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
82-110
82
110
-28
A14/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
85-97
85
97
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
110-94
110
94
+16
H21/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
77-92
77
92
-15
A22/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
90-81
90
81
+9
H28/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
83-86
83
86
-3
H05/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
84-106
84
106
-22
A11/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
71-77
71
77
-6
H12/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-24
16-13
16-14
14-22
26-30
24-16
24-20
15-20
20-29
24-22
21-29
17-30
16-30
21-19
22-22
26-26
35-19
24-27
27-29
24-19
15-22
13-21
27-20
22-29
26-20
22-21
17-17
25-23
18-21
28-24
20-21
17-20
25-21
28-26
13-34
18-25
15-26
20-17
19-13
17-21
174.1Avg total
83.9Scored
90.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)83.088.8171.8-5.835%
Season at home (10)86.186.8172.9-0.750%
Season away (10)80.090.8170.8-10.820%
Last 10 (10)83.990.2174.1-6.330%
Last 5 (5)81.088.4169.4-7.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)78.687.5166.1-8.925%
vs Similar ◀ (11)86.883.2170.0+3.673%
vs Weaker (3)86.780.0166.7+6.767%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -4.0-4.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -4.0-4.0
Keilor ThunderGeelong
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kilsyth
#7
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A06/06
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H14/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A21/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
H28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
60-40
60
40
+20
H05/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A08/07
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A11/07
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H13/07
NBL1 South
87.3Avg total
43.5Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.543.785.2-2.130%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.043.784.7-2.727%-
Last 30 away (15)42.143.785.7-1.633%-
Last 10 (10)43.543.887.3-0.330%-
Last 5 (5)44.244.688.8-0.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)39.944.784.7-4.821%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)42.543.786.2-1.233%-
vs Weaker (5)46.439.686.0+6.860%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#6
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A24/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H31/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A14/06
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
L
37-49
37
49
-12
H15/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H21/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
28-43
28
43
-15
A22/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
48-41
48
41
+7
H28/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H05/07
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
53-47
53
47
+6
A11/07
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
35-43
35
43
-8
H12/07
NBL1 South
88.6Avg total
43.8Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.943.484.3-2.543%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.743.788.3+1.060%-
Last 30 away (15)37.143.180.2-5.927%-
Last 10 (10)43.844.888.6-1.060%-
Last 5 (5)42.043.885.8-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.244.482.6-6.238%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)45.242.888.0+2.455%-
vs Weaker (3)39.740.079.7-0.333%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Keilor Thunder wins
2
Geelong wins
DateGameScore
14/04/24Keilor Thunder v Geelong103-97
15/07/23Geelong v Keilor Thunder116-85
04/06/23Keilor Thunder v Geelong106-104 OT
06/08/22Keilor Thunder v Geelong98-74
07/05/22Geelong v Keilor Thunder84-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/07/25HKnox82-93
11/07/25ABallarat69-79
08/07/25ASandringham Sabres69-70
05/07/25HDiamond Valley108-99
28/06/25HRingwood95-96
21/06/25AEltham96-78
14/06/25HBallarat77-66
06/06/25AMelbourne Tigers74-101
31/05/25HCasey Cavaliers80-90
24/05/25HKilsyth78-94
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/07/25HCasey Cavaliers71-77
11/07/25ADandenong84-106
05/07/25HFrankston83-86
28/06/25HNunawading90-81
22/06/25AKilsyth77-92
21/06/25HDiamond Valley110-94
15/06/25HNW Tasmania85-97
14/06/25ARingwood82-110
31/05/25HMelbourne Tigers89-86
24/05/25AEltham68-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL35%
HomeLWLWL50%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %35%50%20%
Points / game82.586.078.9
Allowed / game88.489.287.6
Point differential-6.0-3.2-8.7
Avg total170.8175.2166.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%10%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geelong
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL35%
HomeLWWLL50%
AwayLLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %35%50%20%
Points / game83.086.180.0
Allowed / game88.886.890.8
Point differential-5.8-0.7-10.8
Avg total171.8172.9170.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%30%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox2117481%91.783.9+7.9
2 Mt Gambier2115671%96.183.1+13.0
3 Sandringham Sabres2013765%93.590.0+3.5
4 Kilsyth2113862%89.085.6+3.4
5 Melbourne Tigers2012860%86.580.7+5.8
6 Eltham2012860%89.586.2+3.3
7 Ballarat2012860%88.089.5-1.6
8 Hobart Chargers2112957%88.786.5+2.1
9 Casey Cavaliers2011955%88.286.2+2.0
10 Ringwood22111150%95.190.8+4.3
11 Frankston2091145%93.190.2+2.9
12 Nunawading2091145%86.587.2-0.8
13 Waverley2091145%93.396.3-3.0
14 Bendigo Braves2181338%82.094.0-12.0
15 Geelong2071335%83.088.8-5.8
16 Keilor Thunder2071335%82.588.4-6.0
17 Dandenong2171433%90.195.1-5.0
18 NW Tasmania2051525%85.791.5-5.8
19 Diamond Valley2051525%84.593.8-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Keilor Thunder1725222185
Geelong2220182080
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