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Keilor Thunder vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jun 2023
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 106-104 (OT)
22-25 25-22 21-22 26-25 12-10
Position#16
Record6-7
FormLLLWW
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game92.2
vs
Position#10
Record6-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game87.6
Allowed / game88.2
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2023
Meetings · Keilor Thunder v Geelong
18 Jul 2025
KEIL85
GEEL80
14 Apr 2024
KEIL103
GEEL97
04 Jun 2023
KEIL106
GEEL104
06 Aug 2022
KEIL98
GEEL74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#4
L
82-106
82
106
-24
A22/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
93-85
93
85
+8
A29/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
L
66-102
66
102
-36
A30/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#14
W
98-89
98
89
+9
H06/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
L
89-125
89
125
-36
A13/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
78-81
78
81
-3
H20/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
L
88-94
88
94
-6
H21/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
L
103-106
103
106
-3
A27/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
92-77
92
77
+15
A28/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H03/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-31
22-30
19-16
15-29
22-25
26-21
18-21
27-18
18-25
19-29
17-25
12-23
19-32
25-19
22-16
32-22
23-30
19-31
21-29
26-35
13-15
22-25
22-19
21-22
26-20
23-24
21-25
18-25
32-24
25-29
17-29
29-24
18-16
31-24
16-27
27-10
21-16
25-20
14-16
24-29
181.9Avg total
87.3Scored
94.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)86.592.2178.7-5.646%
Season at home (7)85.785.3171.0+0.457%
Season away (6)87.5100.2187.7-12.733%
Last 10 (10)87.394.6181.9-7.340%
Last 5 (5)89.087.8176.8+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)83.190.8173.8-7.738%
vs Similar (10)78.979.6158.5-0.740%
vs Weaker (4)74.566.2140.8+8.275%
This opponent (Geelong) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sandringham Sabres
#2
L
87-92
87
92
-5
H21/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
63-90
63
90
-27
A22/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
79-73
79
73
+6
H29/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#4
W
106-105
106
105
+1
H06/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
93-82
93
82
+11
A07/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
79-64
79
64
+15
A12/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#17
W
98-72
98
72
+26
A13/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
W
90-82
90
82
+8
H20/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
97-109
97
109
-12
A27/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
79-97
79
97
-18
H03/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-23
31-27
13-23
22-19
15-22
11-29
15-18
22-21
26-18
15-22
18-16
20-17
32-27
33-30
22-22
19-26
37-18
14-18
18-22
24-24
13-21
23-11
24-15
19-17
26-20
21-13
24-20
27-19
24-21
28-26
24-11
14-24
27-30
28-21
27-30
15-28
20-17
17-34
20-23
22-23
173.7Avg total
87.1Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)87.688.2175.8-0.750%
Season at home (6)87.790.8178.5-3.250%
Season away (6)87.585.7173.2+1.850%
Last 10 (10)87.186.6173.7+0.560%
Last 5 (5)88.684.8173.4+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)77.487.1164.6-9.722%
vs Similar (10)86.488.1174.5-1.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)89.886.4176.2+3.564%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.4-1.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.4-1.4
Keilor ThunderGeelong
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#4
L
48-61
48
61
-13
A22/04
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A29/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#5
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A30/04
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#14
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H06/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
L
42-61
42
61
-19
A13/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H20/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H21/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A27/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A28/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#18
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H03/06
NBL1 South
94.1Avg total
45.5Scored
48.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.742.684.4-0.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.641.884.4+0.956%-
Last 30 away (14)40.743.684.4-2.950%-
Last 10 (10)45.548.694.1-3.150%-
Last 5 (5)47.242.689.8+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)43.746.790.4-3.050%-
vs Similar (10)39.740.780.4-1.050%-
vs Weaker (4)39.031.270.2+7.875%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sandringham Sabres
#2
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H21/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
26-51
26
51
-25
A22/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H29/04
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#4
W
65-57
65
57
+8
H06/05
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#7
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A07/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A12/05
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#17
W
47-33
47
33
+14
A13/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
W
52-47
52
47
+5
H20/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A27/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
37-51
37
51
-14
H03/06
NBL1 South
91.0Avg total
46.2Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.745.089.7-0.257%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.046.290.2-2.250%-
Last 30 away (16)45.443.989.2+1.562%-
Last 10 (10)46.244.891.0+1.480%-
Last 5 (5)45.442.888.2+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.745.183.8-6.444%-
vs Similar (10)46.146.292.3-0.150%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)48.543.792.2+4.773%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Keilor Thunder wins
1
Geelong wins
DateGameScore
06/08/22Keilor Thunder v Geelong98-74
07/05/22Geelong v Keilor Thunder84-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/06/23HDandenong84-81
28/05/23AWaverley92-77
27/05/23AFrankston103-106
21/05/23HRingwood88-94
20/05/23HHobart Chargers78-81
13/05/23ASandringham Sabres89-125
06/05/23HKilsyth98-89
30/04/23AEltham66-102
29/04/23ADiamond Valley93-85
22/04/23AMt Gambier82-106
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/06/23HKnox79-97
27/05/23ABendigo Braves97-109
20/05/23HNunawading90-82
13/05/23ANW Tasmania98-72
12/05/23AHobart Chargers79-64
07/05/23ADiamond Valley93-82
06/05/23HMt Gambier106-105
29/04/23HFrankston79-73
22/04/23ACasey Cavaliers63-90
21/04/23HSandringham Sabres87-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW46%
HomeWWLLW57%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %46%57%33%
Points / game86.585.787.5
Allowed / game92.285.3100.2
Point differential-5.6+0.4-12.7
Avg total178.7171.0187.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geelong
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL50%
HomeLWWWL50%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game87.687.787.5
Allowed / game88.290.885.7
Point differential-0.7-3.2+1.8
Avg total175.8178.5173.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Frankston1411379%93.682.8+10.9
2 Eltham1310377%93.180.2+12.9
3 Knox1410471%85.676.6+9.1
4 Sandringham Sabres1410471%92.586.7+5.8
5 Nunawading139469%92.182.1+10.0
6 Mt Gambier127558%93.587.8+5.8
7 Diamond Valley137654%87.387.8-0.5
8 Waverley137654%84.586.1-1.5
9 Geelong126650%87.688.2-0.7
10 Hobart Chargers147750%82.884.7-1.9
11 Keilor Thunder136746%86.592.2-5.6
12 Ballarat146843%91.594.1-2.6
13 NW Tasmania146843%81.988.6-6.7
14 Melbourne Tigers135838%82.886.8-4.0
15 Kilsyth135838%86.991.0-4.1
16 Bendigo Braves135838%89.397.2-7.8
17 Ringwood1441029%88.091.6-3.6
18 Casey Cavaliers1331023%77.087.5-10.5
19 Dandenong1531220%86.490.9-4.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Keilor Thunder2225212612106
Geelong2522222510104
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