PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Kentucky faces Grambling St. on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model clearly favouring the Wildcats, who have a 3-1 record and average 80.2 points while conceding 75.8, placing them 138th in the league; their 95% win probability reflects that advantage. Kentucky's four games have yielded 80.2 points per contest and 75.8 allowed, and their home record mirrors the overall 3-1, with a recent 3-2 run over the last five games and a 78-77 win over Northern Arizona, a 69-89 loss to Kansas, and a 89-80 victory over James Madison. Grambling St., meanwhile, sits 1-1 with 75.5 points scored and 90.0 allowed, ranked 248th, and their road record is 0-1 with 62.0 points and 93.0 allowed; their last five games are 3-2 and include a 62-93 loss to Texas, a 89-87 win over Northern Illinois, and a 65-68 loss to Jackson State. The Pythia model projects a 84-65 score, 149.8 total points, a 95% chance that Kentucky will win and a 5% chance for Grambling St., with a 1% probability of overtime. The home team line is 84-65, and Kentucky has a 95% chance to cover it. The projected total of 149.8 points sits below the main total line, giving a low over probability. The game ends with Kentucky's 84-65 win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 80.2 | 75.8 | 156.0 | +4.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 80.2 | 75.8 | 156.0 | +4.5 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 77.8 | 77.8 | 155.6 | +0.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.8 | 77.0 | 153.8 | -0.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 71.6 | 82.1 | 153.7 | -10.6 | 14% |
| vs Similar (16) | 79.8 | 77.6 | 157.3 | +2.2 | 69% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 83.9 | 70.4 | 154.3 | +13.4 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 75.5 | 90.0 | 165.5 | -14.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 89.0 | 87.0 | 176.0 | +2.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 62.0 | 93.0 | 155.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.7 | 73.1 | 143.8 | -2.4 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.6 | 72.6 | 144.2 | -1.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 68.2 | 85.2 | 153.5 | -17.0 | 25% |
| vs Similar (15) | 68.9 | 72.0 | 140.9 | -3.1 | 27% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 70.7 | 64.8 | 135.5 | +5.9 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.4 | 37.0 | 72.3 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.7 | 36.7 | 74.4 | +1.1 | 44% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 31.8 | 37.4 | 69.2 | -5.6 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.1 | 36.4 | 73.5 | +0.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 35.0 | 74.6 | +4.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 32.7 | 40.0 | 72.7 | -7.3 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 34.6 | 38.1 | 72.7 | -3.6 | 31% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 39.9 | 31.3 | 71.1 | +8.6 | 86% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.5 | 33.0 | 64.5 | -1.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 32.9 | 29.4 | 62.3 | +3.5 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 30.4 | 35.8 | 66.2 | -5.5 | 41% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.4 | 36.0 | 65.4 | -6.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.6 | 34.8 | 66.4 | -3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 29.0 | 42.5 | 71.5 | -13.5 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 31.1 | 33.7 | 64.8 | -2.5 | 53% | - |
| vs Weaker (10) | 30.9 | 29.6 | 60.5 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Northern Arizona | 78-77 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Kansas | 69-89 |
| 07/11/26 | H | James Madison | 89-80 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Manhattan | 85-57 |
| 22/03/26 | A | Iowa State | 63-82 |
| 20/03/26 | H | Santa Clara | 89-84 OT |
| 13/03/26 | A | Florida | 63-71 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Missouri | 78-72 |
| 11/03/26 | H | LSU | 87-82 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Florida | 77-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Texas | 62-93 |
| 02/11/26 | H | Northern Illinois | 89-87 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Jackson State | 65-68 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 77-52 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Alabama State | 65-63 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 63-77 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Florida A&M | 59-66 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Bethune-Cookman | 71-76 |
| 24/02/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 83-62 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Southern Univ. | 73-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWLW | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 80.2 | 80.2 | - |
| Allowed / game | 75.8 | 75.8 | - |
| Point differential | +4.5 | +4.5 | - |
| Avg total | 156.0 | 156.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 25% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WL | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.5 | 89.0 | 62.0 |
| Allowed / game | 90.0 | 87.0 | 93.0 |
| Point differential | -14.5 | +2.0 | -31.0 |
| Avg total | 165.5 | 176.0 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 3 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 4 |  LSU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.8 | 59.5 | +31.2 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 6 |  South Carolina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 78.8 | 56.5 | +22.2 |
| 7 |  Alabama | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 76.0 | +21.0 |
| 8 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 9 |  Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 11 |  Mississippi St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 67.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 67.8 | +15.5 |
| 13 |  Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 75.8 | 63.8 | +12.0 |
| 14 | Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 15 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 16 |  Auburn | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.7 | 64.0 | +14.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 | Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 3 |  Prairie View A&M | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 82.0 | -6.6 |
| 4 |  Jackson State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.4 | 83.0 | -14.6 |
| 5 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Texas Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.5 | 93.0 | -16.5 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 63.0 | 85.5 | -22.5 |
| 10 |  Alcorn State | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 66.8 | 90.0 | -23.2 |
| 11 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 52.8 | 98.8 | -46.0 |
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