MBA Moscow faces Dynamo Vladivostok in the VTB United League on 14 November 2026, with the model designating MBA Moscow as the favourite and predicting a decisive win. MBA Moscow has gone 3-5 this season, scoring 84.8 points per game while allowing 89.4, and sits 7th in the league; at home they are 2-1, averaging 87.0 points and conceding 82.0, and have won 2 of their last 5 games, including a 103-73 victory over Saratov at home on 10 November. Dynamo Vladivostok is 3-6 overall, averaging 87.3 points and conceding 95.4, and is 8th in the standings; on the road they are 2-4, with 88.0 points for and 100.0 against, and have also won 2 of their last 5, notably a 111-97 win over Enisey on 7 November. In their three previous meetings, Dynamo has won twice, with the last encounter ending 78-77 for MBA Moscow on 24 April 2022. The Pythia model gives MBA Moscow a 71% chance of victory and a 58% probability of covering the -4.5 spread, while the projected score is 90-84 and the total is 173.7, with a 38% chance of the over on the 178.5 line; there is a 4% chance of overtime. The game will likely hinge on MBA Moscow's home advantage and recent offensive bursts.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MBA Moscow winWon
68.8%fair 1.45
Best odds1.49
Implied64.4%
Edge+4.5pp
Dynamo Vladivostok winLost
31.2%fair 3.21
Best odds2.72
Implied35.6%
Edge-4.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 178 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 179.5.
Over/Under 174.5Actual: Over 174.5
Over 174.5
57.3%
@ 1.52-2.9pp
Under 174.5
42.7%
@ 2.27+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Marathon Be
1.48
Under
Marathon Be
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Over/Under 179.5 · main lineActual: Over 179.5
Over 179.5
45.1%
@ 1.94-5.3pp
Under 179.5
54.9%
@ 1.95+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.94
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.75
Over/Under 184.5Actual: Over 184.5
Over 184.5
33.5%
@ 2.24-7.2pp
Under 184.5
66.5%
@ 1.55+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Under
Marathon Be
1.55
1xBet
1.53
📊 3. Team Totals
MBA Moscow total 89Actual: MBA Moscow over 89
Over 89
61.4%
@ 1.74+7.2pp
Under 89
38.6%
@ 2.05-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Marathon Be
1.71
Under
1xBet
2.05
Marathon Be
2.02
MBA Moscow total 93 · main lineActual: MBA Moscow over 93
Over 93
45.7%
@ 1.89-3.8pp
Under 93
54.3%
@ 1.85+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
MBA Moscow total 97Actual: MBA Moscow over 97
Over 97
30.6%
Under 97
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Vladivostok total 83.5Actual: Dynamo Vladivostok over 83.5
Over 83.5
58.5%
Under 83.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Vladivostok total 87.5 · main lineActual: Dynamo Vladivostok over 87.5
Over 87.5
43.5%
@ 1.87-6.5pp
Under 87.5
56.5%
@ 1.87+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Dynamo Vladivostok total 91.5Actual: Dynamo Vladivostok over 91.5
Over 91.5
29.5%
Under 91.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from MBA Moscow's side (positive = MBA Moscow win). Pythia's expected margin is +5.9; MBA Moscow win by 1+ in 62% of simulations.
Spread MBA Moscow -8.5Actual: MBA Moscow -8.5
MMO -8.5
42.0%
@ 2.24+0.9pp
DVL +8.5
58.0%
@ 1.56-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
Marathon Be
2.24
1xBet
2.24
DVL
Marathon Be
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Spread MBA Moscow -5.5 · main lineActual: MBA Moscow -5.5
MMO -5.5
52.4%
@ 1.94+3.1pp
DVL +5.5
47.6%
@ 1.90-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Be
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
DVL
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.84
Spread MBA Moscow -2.5Actual: MBA Moscow -2.5
MMO -2.5
62.5%
@ 1.73+5.8pp
DVL +2.5
37.5%
@ 2.20-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MMO
SBO
1.73
Pinnacle
1.63
Marathon Be
1.58
1xBet
1.58
DVL
Marathon Be
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.14
SBO
1.93
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
MBA MoscowDynamo Vladivostok
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MBA MoscowLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unics Kazan
#2
W
20-16
20
16
+4
A28/04
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#2
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H02/05
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
14-25
14
25
-11
H27/09
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
W
25-17
25
17
+8
A03/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
14-31
14
31
-17
H13/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
31-13
31
13
+18
A18/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
12-17
12
17
-5
A22/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
24-18
24
18
+6
A01/11
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
17-25
17
25
-8
A07/11
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
25-19
25
19
+6
H10/11
VTB United League
40.7Avg total
20.2Scored
20.5Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)
20.0
21.1
41.1
-1.1
37%
17%
Last 30 at home (14)
19.7
22.1
41.9
-2.4
36%
21%
Last 30 away (16)
20.2
20.2
40.4
+0.1
38%
12%
Last 10 (10)
20.2
20.5
40.7
-0.3
50%
0%
Last 5 (5)
21.8
18.4
40.2
+3.4
60%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)
18.7
21.8
40.5
-3.1
29%
21%
vs Similar (7)
20.4
23.3
43.7
-2.9
29%
29%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
21.7
18.3
40.0
+3.3
56%
0%
This opponent (Dynamo Vladivostok) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (MBA Moscow) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread MBA Moscow -2 · main lineActual: MBA Moscow -2
MMO -2
53.2%
@ 1.88+3.5pp
DVL +2
46.8%
@ 1.86-3.5pp
2nd half Over/Under 89.5 · main lineActual: Under 89.5
Over
45.6%
@ 1.88-4.1pp
Under
54.4%
@ 1.86+4.1pp
MBA Moscow 2nd half total 44 · main lineActual: MBA Moscow over 44
Over
58.7%
@ 1.85+8.2pp
Under
41.3%
@ 1.89-8.2pp
Dynamo Vladivostok 2nd half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Dynamo Vladivostok under 44.5
Over
40.0%
@ 1.91-9.0pp
Under
60.0%
@ 1.83+9.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 88Actual: Under 88
Over
51.0%
@ 1.80-1.0pp
Under
49.0%
@ 1.95+1.0pp
2nd half Spread MBA Moscow -1Actual: MBA Moscow -1
MMO -1
57.5%
@ 1.84+6.7pp
DVL +1
42.5%
@ 1.90-6.7pp
2nd half Spread MBA Moscow 0Actual: MBA Moscow 0
MMO 0
61.7%
@ 1.83+10.6pp
DVL 0
38.3%
@ 1.91-10.6pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: MBA Moscow (regulation)
MMO
59.3%
@ 1.71+5.7pp
Draw
3.9%
@ 18.50-1.0pp
DVL
36.8%
@ 2.21-4.7pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
MBA Moscow +1
70.4%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
MBA Moscow +2.5
74.3%
1.33
1xBet
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.30
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
MBA Moscow +2
73.4%
1.34
1xBet
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.32
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
MBA Moscow +1.5
71.1%
1.36
1xBet
1.38
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
MBA Moscow +6
83.3%
1.18
Marathon Bet
1.18
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +5.5
81.5%
1.19
Marathon Bet
1.19
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +5
81.1%
1.21
Marathon Bet
1.21
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +4.5
79.2%
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.22
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +4
78.6%
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.22
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +3.5
76.6%
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.26
-
-
-
-
-
Won
MBA Moscow +3
76.1%
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Under 188.5
74.7%
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 188
74.2%
1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Dynamo Vladivostok +13.5
73.2%
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.26
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 187.5
72.8%
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.41
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Dynamo Vladivostok +13
72.5%
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 187
72.2%
1.42
Marathon Bet
1.42
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
MBA Moscow or draw
70.9%
1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Under 186.5
70.7%
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.45
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Dynamo Vladivostok +12.5
70.5%
1.31
Marathon Bet
1.31
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 186
70.1%
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.47
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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