Memphis hosts VCU Rams on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Memphis at 74% versus 26% for VCU; the projected score is 80-73 and the total is 153.1 points. Memphis has a 1-0 record, 80.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed, while VCU is also 1-0, 82.0 points per game and 72.0 allowed; both teams are early in the season and have not yet lost. In the last five games Memphis has won two and lost three, with a recent 80-76 win over Iowa State away on 2 November, a 69-81 home loss to Tulane on 11 March and a 96-95 away win over Tulane on 8 March, whereas VCU has won four of five, including an 82-72 home win over UALR on 2 November, a 55-76 loss to Illinois away on 21 March and an 82-78 away win over North Carolina on 19 March. Historically the Rams have lost one of three meetings, the last being a 85-80 Memphis win on 6 December 2023. The spread is 1.5 in favour of Memphis with a 76% chance of covering, the over line is 156.5 with a 41% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Memphis winWon
73.5%fair 1.36
Best odds2.12
Implied46.5%
Edge+27.0pp
VCU Rams winLost
26.5%fair 3.77
Best odds1.80
Implied53.5%
Edge-27.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Memphis) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155Actual: Over 155
Over 155
44.6%
@ 1.71
Under 155
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.71
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 160 · main lineActual: Over 160
Over 160
32.8%
@ 1.93-16.5pp
Under 160
67.2%
@ 1.88+16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 165Actual: Over 165
Over 165
22.7%
Under 165
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Memphis total 74Actual: Memphis over 74
Over 74
73.5%
Under 74
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis total 78 · main lineActual: Memphis over 78
Over 78
58.6%
@ 1.85+8.0pp
Under 78
41.4%
@ 1.87-8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Memphis total 82Actual: Memphis over 82
Over 82
42.2%
Under 82
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VCU Rams total 74.5Actual: VCU Rams over 74.5
Over 74.5
43.6%
@ 1.31-26.4pp
Under 74.5
56.4%
@ 3.20+26.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.92
VCU Rams total 78.5 · main lineActual: VCU Rams over 78.5
Over 78.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 78.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
VCU Rams total 82.5Actual: VCU Rams over 82.5
Over 82.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under 82.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.60
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Memphis -1Push
MEMP -1
72.8%
@ 2.17+28.6pp
VCU +1
27.2%
@ 1.72-28.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.10
VCU
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Be
1.63
Spread Memphis +2 · main lineActual: Memphis +2
MEMP +2
78.1%
@ 1.93+27.2pp
VCU -2
21.9%
@ 1.96-27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Bet365
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.82
VCU
Pinnacle
1.96
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Spread Memphis +5Actual: Memphis +5
MEMP +5
85.2%
@ 1.57+26.3pp
VCU -5
14.8%
@ 2.25-26.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Bet365
1.57
VCU
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MemphisVCU Rams
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Memphis (regulation)
71.0%
2.16
Betano
2.18
Marathon Bet
2.16
1xBet
2.13
-
-
+29.1pp
Won
Memphis -1
72.8%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Push
Memphis +1
75.1%
2.03
1xBet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.03
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.98
+28.1pp
Won
Memphis -1.5
71.1%
2.23
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.15
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Memphis +1.5
75.7%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
+27.4pp
Won
Memphis +2
78.1%
1.88
Bet365
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.85
SBO
1.82
+27.2pp
Won
Memphis win
73.5%
2.06
Betano
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Marathon Bet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
+27.0pp
Won
Memphis +5
85.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Memphis +4.5
83.4%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
Memphis +2.5
78.8%
1.79
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
+25.6pp
Won
Memphis +5.5
85.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Memphis +3
80.6%
1.73
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
Memphis +6
87.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
Memphis +7
88.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Memphis +6.5
87.4%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Memphis +4
83.0%
1.64
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Won
Memphis +3.5
81.0%
1.68
Bet365
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
+23.4pp
Won
Memphis +8
90.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
Memphis +7.5
89.1%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Memphis +9
91.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Memphis +8.5
90.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Memphis +9.5
91.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Memphis +10
93.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Memphis +10.5
93.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Memphis +12.5
94.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Under 162
71.5%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.65
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Under 162.5
72.1%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Under 163.5
74.0%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Under 164.5
75.9%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Under 165.5
77.7%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Lost
Under 166.5
79.5%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Memphis +17.5
97.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Memphis +22.5
99.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
82.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Under 167.5
81.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Under 173.5
89.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.8pp
-
Memphis over 73.5
74.3%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Memphis over 74.5
71.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 178.5
93.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Under 172.5
88.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Under 177.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Memphis under 98.5
96.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
VCU Rams +22.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Memphis under 87.5
76.9%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Memphis under 88.5
79.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
Over 132.5
89.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
88.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
VCU Rams over 60.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
82.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
VCU Rams over 61.5
86.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
VCU Rams +17.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
VCU Rams over 62.5
84.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
81.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
VCU Rams over 63.5
82.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
73.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
VCU Rams over 64.5
79.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Over 143.5
71.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
VCU Rams over 65.5
76.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-13.7pp
Won
VCU Rams over 66.5
73.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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