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Merrimack Warriors vs Boston University Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 77-66
Projected total 142.9
Scheduled
Position#178
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game65.7
Allowed / game60.0
Merrimack Warriors
USA
Vs
84%
16%
■ MERR 84%■ BOST 16%
Pythia win probability
Boston University
USA
Position#115
Record3-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game74.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Merrimack Warriors v Boston University
18 Nov 2026
MERR v BOST
upcoming
13 Dec 2024
MERR64
BOST61
02 Dec 2022
MERR54
BOST68
29 Dec 2019
MERR67
BOST69
Sections
Game preview & prediction

The Merrimack Warriors host Boston University on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Merrimack the clear favourite, rating them 84% to win largely because their season record of 2-1, 65.7 points per game and 60.0 points allowed per game outpace Boston University's 3-1 record, 80.0 points per game and 74.5 points allowed per game. Merrimack's overall season shows a modest 2-1 record with a 65.7-point average, while their home performance is 1-1, 62.0 points per game, 60.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 73-60 win over Albany Great Danes away on 8 November and a 63-49 win over Appalachian State at home on 2 November. Boston University, meanwhile, has a 3-1 record, 80.0 points per game, 74.5 allowed, a 1-1 road record with 63.5 points per game, 69.5 allowed, and has also won three of their last five games, highlighted by a 100-74 home win over Johnson & Wales (RI) on 12 November and a 72-67 away win over Brown on 6 November. In head-to-head, Boston University leads 4-2, most recently defeating Merrimack 91-79 on 15 November 2025. Pythia projects a 77-66 score, 142.9 total points, a 84% chance for Merrimack to win, a 16% chance for Boston University, and a 3% overtime probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Merrimack Warriors win
84.1%fair 1.19
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Boston University win
15.9%fair 6.29
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siena
#78
W
79-72 OT
79
72
+7
H21/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
88-86 OT
88
86
+2
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#251
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#110
L
61-71
61
71
-10
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#226
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-37
34-29
36-33
32-35
32-29
30-38
30-28
43-38
39-25
31-23
30-28
28-29
30-33
24-31
43-21
20-28
26-38
35-33
30-26
43-34
132.1Avg total
68.1Scored
64.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)65.760.0125.7+5.767%
Season at home (2)62.060.0122.0+2.050%
Season away (1)73.060.0133.0+13.0100%
Last 10 (10)68.164.0132.1+4.170%
Last 5 (5)61.860.2122.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)59.574.5134.0-15.00%
vs Similar ◀ (18)68.962.3131.2+6.778%
vs Weaker (10)70.962.3133.2+8.690%
This opponent (Boston University) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston UniversityUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
67-70
67
70
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
78-63
78
63
+15
H26/02
NCAA
American University
#204
W
68-65
68
65
+3
A28/02
NCAA
American University
#204
W
75-73
75
73
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A11/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#295
W
93-85
93
85
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Brown
#319
W
72-67
72
67
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#69
L
55-72
55
72
-17
A10/11
NCAA
Johnson & Wales (RI)
#396
W
100-74
100
74
+26
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
28-29
39-41
38-33
40-30
38-23
30-42
40-36
35-37
36-35
37-37
30-41
30-33
46-36
47-49
31-37
41-30
24-39
31-33
51-40
49-34
145.6Avg total
74.1Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.074.5154.5+5.575%
Season at home (2)96.579.5176.0+17.0100%
Season away (2)63.569.5133.0-6.050%
Last 10 (10)74.171.5145.6+2.670%
Last 5 (5)76.074.4150.4+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)63.871.0134.8-7.225%
vs Similar ◀ (10)73.973.0146.9+0.940%
vs Weaker (15)81.373.8155.1+7.573%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
39.4%
Under 147
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
28.1%
Under 152
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
18.7%
Under 157
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Merrimack Warriors total 80.5
Over 80.5
36.7%
Under 80.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merrimack Warriors total 84.5
Over 84.5
22.9%
Under 84.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merrimack Warriors total 88.5
Over 88.5
12.6%
Under 88.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston University total 64
Over 64
56.7%
Under 64
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston University total 68
Over 68
40.4%
Under 68
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston University total 72
Over 72
26.0%
Under 72
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Merrimack Warriors -3
MERR -3
78.7%
BOST +3
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
MERR
No market prices yet.
BOST
No market prices yet.
Spread Merrimack Warriors 0
MERR 0
84.1%
BOST 0
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
MERR
No market prices yet.
BOST
No market prices yet.
Spread Merrimack Warriors +3
MERR +3
89.0%
BOST -3
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
MERR
No market prices yet.
BOST
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +0.2+0.22nd half: +1.3+1.3
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +3.0+3.01st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +0.2+0.22nd half: +1.3+1.3
Merrimack WarriorsBoston University
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siena
#78
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#251
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#110
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#226
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A08/11
NCAA
62.6Avg total
32.8Scored
29.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.929.763.6+4.273%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.829.565.3+6.380%-
Last 30 away (15)32.030.062.0+2.067%-
Last 10 (10)32.829.862.6+3.070%-
Last 5 (5)31.829.261.0+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)28.040.568.5-12.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)34.128.662.7+5.472%-
vs Weaker (10)34.829.664.4+5.290%-
This opponent (Boston University) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston UniversityLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lehigh
#197
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A22/02
NCAA
Holy Cross
#321
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H26/02
NCAA
American University
#204
W
38-23
38
23
+15
A28/02
NCAA
American University
#204
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Navy
#24
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A11/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#295
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H03/11
NCAA
Brown
#319
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A07/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#69
L
24-39
24
39
-15
A10/11
NCAA
Johnson & Wales (RI)
#396
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H12/11
NCAA
71.1Avg total
36.2Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.233.469.6+2.863%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.433.773.1+5.773%-
Last 30 away (15)33.033.166.1-0.153%-
Last 10 (10)36.234.971.1+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)36.438.675.0-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.232.561.8-3.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)34.334.068.3+0.350%-
vs Weaker (15)38.332.871.1+5.573%-
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Merrimack Warriors wins
4
Boston University wins
DateGameScore
15/11/25Boston University v Merrimack Warriors79-91
14/12/24Merrimack Warriors v Boston University64-61
30/12/23Boston University v Merrimack Warriors74-63
03/12/22Merrimack Warriors v Boston University54-68
28/11/21Boston University v Merrimack Warriors61-60
29/12/19Merrimack Warriors v Boston University67-69
Merrimack Warriorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AAlbany Great Danes73-60
06/11/26HUMass Lowell61-71
02/11/26HAppalachian State63-49
11/03/26HSiena54-64
08/03/26HMarist58-57
06/03/26HSacred Heart70-48
01/03/26ANiagara73-66
28/02/26ACanisius62-67
22/02/26HIona88-86 OT
21/02/26HSiena79-72 OT
Boston Universitylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HJohnson & Wales (RI)100-74
10/11/26ANorthwestern55-72
07/11/26ABrown72-67
03/11/26HNortheastern93-85
11/03/26ALehigh60-74
08/03/26ANavy73-72
06/03/26HAmerican University75-73
28/02/26AAmerican University68-65
26/02/26HHoly Cross78-63
22/02/26ALehigh67-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game65.762.073.0
Allowed / game60.060.060.0
Point differential+5.7+2.0+13.0
Avg total125.7122.0133.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Boston University
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game80.096.563.5
Allowed / game74.579.569.5
Point differential+5.5+17.0-6.0
Avg total154.5176.0133.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena32167%85.379.0+6.3
2 Merrimack Warriors32167%65.760.0+5.7
3 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Iona42250%66.271.5-5.2
6 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
7 Mount St. Mary's21150%60.077.0-17.0
8 Marist31233%70.370.7-0.3
9 Manhattan31233%64.373.0-8.7
10 Fairfield31233%59.075.7-16.7
11 Rider41325%64.572.2-7.8
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston University43175%80.074.5+5.5
2 Navy43175%72.068.2+3.8
3 Lafayette53260%79.864.4+15.4
4 Army31233%74.362.7+11.7
5 Lehigh31233%64.373.7-9.3
6 American University31233%64.075.0-11.0
7 Loyola Maryland41325%70.275.5-5.2
8 Colgate3030%69.785.7-16.0
9 Bucknell3030%63.391.0-27.7
10 Holy Cross3030%64.092.7-28.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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