Miami (Ohio) faces Bellarmine on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Miami (Ohio) as the favourite because of its 1-0 record, 86.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, and a 98% probability of winning; Bellarmine sits at 0-2, 58.0 points per game and 92.5 allowed, and only a 2% chance of triumph. Miami (Ohio) has played one game this season, winning 86-77, and has a 3-2 record over its last five games, with recent wins over James Madison 86-77 and SMU Mustangs 89-79, and a loss to Tennessee 56-78; Bellarmine's two games have both been losses, 69-92 to Indiana, 47-93 to Vanderbilt, and 73-86 to Central Arkansas, and its last five games are 2-3. The only prior meeting was Bellarmine's 77-68 win over Miami (Ohio) on 18 December 2021. Pythia projects a 93-69 score, 161.7 total points, a 64% chance that Miami (Ohio) will cover the -20.5 line, and a 55% probability of the over on the 159.5 line, with a 1% chance of overtime. Bellarmine's last victory over Miami (Ohio) remains the most recent concrete result.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miami (Ohio) winWon
97.9%fair 1.02
Best odds1.03
Implied93.6%
Edge+4.3pp
Bellarmine winLost
2.1%fair 47.29
Best odds17.00
Implied6.4%
Edge-4.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Miami (Ohio)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154Actual: Under 154
Over 154
68.7%
@ 1.47+5.2pp
Under 154
31.3%
@ 2.55-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 159 · main lineActual: Under 159
Over 159
56.7%
@ 1.90+6.7pp
Under 159
43.3%
@ 1.91-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 164Actual: Under 164
Over 164
44.0%
@ 2.60+8.2pp
Under 164
56.0%
@ 1.45-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Miami (Ohio) total 85.5Actual: Miami (Ohio) under 85.5
Over 85.5
77.9%
@ 1.37+11.8pp
Under 85.5
22.1%
@ 2.67-11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.67
Miami (Ohio) total 89.5 · main lineActual: Miami (Ohio) under 89.5
Over 89.5
64.2%
@ 1.89+14.2pp
Under 89.5
35.8%
@ 1.93-14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
BetVictor
1.93
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Miami (Ohio) total 93.5Actual: Miami (Ohio) under 93.5
Over 93.5
48.3%
@ 2.35+9.9pp
Under 93.5
51.7%
@ 1.47-9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
Bellarmine total 65Actual: Bellarmine over 65
Over 65
64.4%
Under 65
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellarmine total 69 · main lineActual: Bellarmine over 69
Over 69
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.0pp
Under 69
52.0%
@ 1.85+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Bellarmine total 73Push
Over 73
31.9%
Under 73
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Miami (Ohio) -23Actual: Bellarmine +23
MIAM -23
55.6%
@ 2.35+16.0pp
BELL +23
44.4%
@ 1.54-16.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Bet365
2.35
BELL
Bet365
1.54
Spread Miami (Ohio) -20 · main lineActual: Bellarmine +20
MIAM -20
66.1%
@ 1.88+15.1pp
BELL +20
33.9%
@ 1.96-15.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.82
BELL
Pinnacle
1.96
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Miami (Ohio) -17Actual: Bellarmine +17
MIAM -17
75.4%
@ 1.55+15.7pp
BELL +17
24.6%
@ 2.30-15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MIAM
Bet365
1.55
BELL
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Miami (Ohio)Bellarmine
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Miami (Ohio)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass
#189
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A18/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
43-22
43
22
+21
A24/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
54-48
54
48
+6
A07/03
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H12/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A19/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A20/03
NCAA
James Madison
#279
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A03/11
NCAA
76.2Avg total
39.8Scored
36.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)
43.4
35.4
78.8
+7.9
77%
57%
Last 30 at home (14)
44.3
36.2
80.5
+8.1
71%
57%
Last 30 away (16)
42.6
34.8
77.3
+7.8
81%
56%
Last 10 (10)
39.8
36.4
76.2
+3.4
70%
40%
Last 5 (5)
40.6
42.2
82.8
-1.6
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger
no games
vs Similar (1)
33.0
36.0
69.0
-3.0
0%
0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)
43.7
35.4
79.1
+8.3
79%
59%
This opponent (Bellarmine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Miami (Ohio) -18
72.5%
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -17
75.4%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -16
78.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -15
80.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -16.5
76.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -17.5
73.3%
1.56
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -15.5
78.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -14.5
81.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -14
82.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -13.5
83.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -13
85.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -12.5
85.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -18.5
70.3%
1.65
Bet365
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
+12.2pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 87.5
71.5%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 86.5
74.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 84.5
80.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 85.5
77.9%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 82.5
85.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 80.5
89.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) -10.5
88.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) over 79.5
91.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 78.5
93.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 81.5
88.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Miami (Ohio) (regulation)
97.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 76.5
95.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 74.5
96.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 75.5
96.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 77.5
94.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) over 73.5
97.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) -4.5
95.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 152
73.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 153
70.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Push
Over 152.5
71.5%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) win
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.01
+4.3pp
Won
Over 151.5
73.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Bellarmine under 74.5
72.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 149.5
77.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Bellarmine under 76.5
78.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 144.5
85.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
91.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Bellarmine over 52.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Bellarmine over 54.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Bellarmine over 56.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Bellarmine over 58.5
84.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Under 179.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Bellarmine over 60.5
79.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Bellarmine over 62.5
72.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Bellarmine over 59.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) under 102.5
82.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) under 100.5
77.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) under 99.5
74.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
78.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Miami (Ohio) under 98.5
70.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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