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Michigan State vs Detroit Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 94-58
Projected total 152.0
Scheduled
Position#26
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game66.2
Vs
100%
■ MICH 100%■ DETR 0%
Pythia win probability
Position#453
Record0-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game53.0
Allowed / game92.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan State v Detroit
21 Nov 2026
MICH v DETR
upcoming
21 Nov 2025
MICH84
DETR56
04 Dec 2020
MICH83
DETR76
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Michigan State host Detroit in the NCAA. Pythia makes Michigan State the favourite at 100% and projects 94-58, about 152 points in all. Overtime chance: 0%. Michigan State are 4-0 this season (93.0 scored, 66.2 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Detroit are 0-3 this season (53.0 scored, 92.7 allowed a game), form WLLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State win
99.7%fair 1.00
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Detroit win
0.3%fair 298.55
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#270
W
96-59
96
59
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#86
W
79-73
79
73
+6
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#259
W
106-72
106
72
+34
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
52-24
44-35
48-25
43-36
34-25
45-48
59-44
47-28
159.2Avg total
85.9Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)93.066.2159.2+26.8100%
Season at home (3)97.764.0161.7+33.7100%
Season away (1)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)85.973.3159.2+12.670%
Last 5 (5)87.066.4153.4+20.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)78.882.0160.8-3.250%
vs Similar (7)71.669.6141.1+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.568.1153.6+17.589%
This opponent (Detroit) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DetroitUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
91-86
91
86
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A26/02
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
95-89
95
89
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
84-63
84
63
+21
H05/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A10/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
63-66
63
66
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#145
L
32-93
32
93
-61
A07/11
NCAA
Xavier
#7
L
55-100
55
100
-45
A11/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
L
72-85
72
85
-13
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-48
49-38
31-28
43-42
28-26
34-47
49-42
46-47
38-24
46-39
33-36
37-28
29-26
34-40
19-41
13-52
20-43
35-57
40-42
32-43
148.7Avg total
69.8Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)53.092.7145.7-39.70%
Season at home (1)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
Season away (2)43.596.5140.0-53.00%
Last 10 (10)69.878.9148.7-9.150%
Last 5 (5)58.481.6140.0-23.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)68.379.9148.2-11.636%
vs Similar (10)79.880.1159.9-0.350%
vs Weaker (6)83.070.7153.7+12.3100%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
64.8%
Under 146
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
52.4%
Under 151
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
39.8%
Under 156
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan State total 80.5
Over 80.5
90.6%
Under 80.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan State total 84.5
Over 84.5
82.1%
Under 84.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan State total 88.5
Over 88.5
69.7%
Under 88.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Detroit total 62
Over 62
35.1%
Under 62
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Detroit total 66
Over 66
21.2%
Under 66
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Detroit total 70
Over 70
11.3%
Under 70
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan State -3
MICH -3
99.5%
DETR +3
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
MICH
No market prices yet.
DETR
No market prices yet.
Spread Michigan State 0
MICH 0
99.7%
DETR 0
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
MICH
No market prices yet.
DETR
No market prices yet.
Spread Michigan State +3
MICH +3
99.8%
DETR -3
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
MICH
No market prices yet.
DETR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: -6.4-6.4
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +8.1+8.11st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: -6.4-6.4
Michigan StateDetroit
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#270
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
W
48-25
48
25
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#86
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A11/11
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#259
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H14/11
NCAA
73.1Avg total
40.6Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.733.571.2+4.257%-
Last 30 at home (18)40.532.172.6+8.472%-
Last 30 away (12)33.535.669.1-2.133%-
Last 10 (10)40.632.573.1+8.170%-
Last 5 (5)44.030.674.6+13.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.037.071.0-3.025%-
vs Similar (7)33.434.367.7-0.929%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)40.132.472.5+7.674%-
This opponent (Detroit) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DetroitLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
38-24
38
24
+14
H05/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#145
L
19-41
19
41
-22
A07/11
NCAA
Xavier
#7
L
20-43
20
43
-23
A11/11
NCAA
Toledo
#266
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H14/11
NCAA
68.5Avg total
32.9Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.335.070.3+0.260%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.334.673.9+4.769%-
Last 30 away (17)32.235.467.5-3.253%-
Last 10 (10)32.935.668.5-2.750%-
Last 5 (5)28.237.665.8-9.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)32.136.068.1-3.950%-
vs Similar (10)36.736.573.2+0.250%-
vs Weaker (6)40.330.370.7+10.0100%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Michigan State wins
0
Detroit wins
DateGameScore
21/11/25Michigan State v Detroit84-56
04/12/20Michigan State v Detroit83-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HNorthern Iowa106-72
11/11/26ADuke79-73
06/11/26HToledo91-61
03/11/26HQuinnipiac96-59
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
Detroitlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HToledo72-85
11/11/26AXavier55-100
07/11/26AMarquette32-93
10/03/26AWright State63-66
10/03/26ARobert Morris70-64
05/03/26HWisc. Milwaukee84-63
28/02/26AOakland95-89
26/02/26ARobert Morris62-73
22/02/26HWisc. Green Bay74-70
21/02/26HWisc. Milwaukee91-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game93.097.779.0
Allowed / game66.264.073.0
Point differential+26.8+33.7+6.0
Avg total159.2161.7152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Detroit
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game53.072.043.5
Allowed / game92.785.096.5
Point differential-39.7-13.0-53.0
Avg total145.7157.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
3 Nebraska440100%92.264.2+28.0
4 Michigan State440100%93.066.2+26.8
5 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
10 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
11 Illinois43175%104.571.2+33.2
12 Michigan43175%92.075.5+16.5
13 Purdue43175%78.569.0+9.5
14 Northwestern43175%70.861.8+9.0
15 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
16 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
17 Ohio State42250%81.079.2+1.8
18 Maryland31233%84.380.0+4.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wright State440100%91.269.0+22.2
2 Wisc. Green Bay53260%75.266.8+8.4
3 Youngstown State42250%74.080.5-6.5
4 Cleveland State42250%75.288.0-12.8
5 Wisc. Milwaukee52340%76.077.4-1.4
6 Northern Kentucky52340%74.693.4-18.8
7 IPFW31233%77.774.7+3.0
8 Robert Morris41325%63.071.5-8.5
9 Oakland61517%70.891.8-21.0
10 Detroit3030%53.092.7-39.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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