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Michigan State vs Northern Iowa Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 84-65
Projected total 149.3
Final 106-72
59-44 47-28
Position#28
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game88.7
Allowed / game64.3
Michigan State 🏆
USA
Vs
95%
■ MICH 95%■ NORT 5%
Pythia win probability
Northern Iowa
USA
Position#255
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game92.7
Allowed / game81.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Michigan State faces Northern Iowa on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Spartans the clear favourite as Pythia rates them 95% to win, driven by a perfect 3-0 record, 88.7 points scored and 64.3 allowed per game, and a league position of 42. Northern Iowa, 2-1 this season, averages 92.7 points and 81.3 allowed, sitting at 161 in the standings. The Spartans have gone 2-0 at home, averaging 93.5 points and 60.0 allowed, and won four of their last five games, including a 91-61 home win over Toledo and a 96-59 victory at Quinnipiac; their most recent outing was a 79-73 away win over Duke. The Panthers have gone 0-1 on the road, scoring 83.0 and conceding 98.0, and have won three of their last five games, highlighted by a 106-70 home triumph over Cornell College and a 89-76 home win over Wisc. Green Bay, with a recent loss to Furman 83-98 away. Pythia projects a 84-65 score, 149.3 total points, and gives the Spartans a 95% chance to win, 5% for the Panthers; the 155.5 over/under line has a 35% over probability, and a 1% chance of overtime. The Spartans' offensive firepower and flawless record make them the dominant side heading into this contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
94.6%fair 1.06
Best odds1.02
Implied94.0%
Edge+0.6pp
Northern Iowa winLost
5.4%fair 18.61
Best odds65.00
Implied6.0%
Edge-0.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana
#145
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
91-87
91
87
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
63-67
63
67
-4
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
96-59
96
59
+37
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#87
W
79-73
79
73
+6
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-37
32-27
31-30
60-57
41-42
39-48
33-44
51-44
45-25
47-42
36-31
41-38
27-35
36-32
52-24
44-35
48-25
43-36
34-25
45-48
155.5Avg total
83.0Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)88.764.3153.0+24.3100%
Season at home (2)93.560.0153.5+33.5100%
Season away (1)79.073.0152.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.072.5155.5+10.570%
Last 5 (5)81.265.8147.0+15.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)75.078.8153.8-3.840%
vs Similar (7)71.669.6141.1+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)84.467.8152.2+16.689%
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IowaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
L
69-71
69
71
-2
H26/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
75-53
75
53
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H06/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
74-52
74
52
+22
A07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
73-69
73
69
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
84-69
84
69
+15
A08/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
53-79
53
79
-26
A20/03
NCAA
Cornell College
#434
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H04/11
NCAA
Furman
#81
L
83-98
83
98
-15
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#176
W
89-76
89
76
+13
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-28
46-43
39-24
36-29
35-36
33-23
35-27
39-25
45-32
28-37
48-41
36-28
28-47
25-32
45-42
61-28
31-44
52-54
46-30
43-46
147.0Avg total
77.4Scored
69.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)92.781.3174.0+11.367%
Season at home (2)97.573.0170.5+24.5100%
Season away (1)83.098.0181.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)77.469.6147.0+7.870%
Last 5 (5)83.078.4161.4+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)76.779.0155.7-2.333%
vs Similar (12)67.467.9135.3-0.542%
vs Weaker (14)69.459.1128.6+10.379%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150Actual: Over 150
Over 150
48.1%
@ 1.44-16.4pp
Under 150
51.9%
@ 2.62+16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 155 · main lineActual: Over 155
Over 155
35.8%
@ 1.91-14.0pp
Under 155
64.2%
@ 1.93+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Over/Under 160Actual: Over 160
Over 160
24.8%
@ 2.55-11.7pp
Under 160
75.2%
@ 1.47+11.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan State total 89Actual: Michigan State over 89
Over 89
30.2%
Under 89
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan State total 93 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 93
Over 93
17.5%
@ 1.85-32.5pp
Under 93
82.5%
@ 1.85+32.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Michigan State total 97Actual: Michigan State over 97
Over 97
8.9%
Under 97
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Iowa total 59Actual: Northern Iowa over 59
Over 59
74.0%
Under 59
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Iowa total 63 · main lineActual: Northern Iowa over 63
Over 63
58.9%
@ 1.85+8.9pp
Under 63
41.1%
@ 1.85-8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Northern Iowa total 67Actual: Northern Iowa over 67
Over 67
42.4%
Under 67
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan State -32Actual: Michigan State -32
MICH -32
no forecast
@ 2.20
NORT +32
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
2.20
NORT
Bet365
1.60
Spread Michigan State -29 · main lineActual: Michigan State -29
MICH -29
no forecast
@ 1.89
NORT +29
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
NORT
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Spread Michigan State -26Actual: Michigan State -26
MICH -26
no forecast
@ 1.55
NORT +26
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
1.55
NORT
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.4+7.41st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +5.4+5.4
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +7.4+7.41st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +5.4+5.4
Michigan StateNorthern Iowa
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana
#145
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A01/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A08/03
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H14/03
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
45-25
45
25
+20
H19/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A28/03
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#243
W
52-24
52
24
+28
H03/11
NCAA
Toledo
#262
W
48-25
48
25
+23
H06/11
NCAA
Duke
#87
W
34-25
34
25
+9
A11/11
NCAA
71.0Avg total
39.2Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)36.933.069.9+3.857%33%
Last 30 at home (18)39.131.370.4+7.872%28%
Last 30 away (12)33.535.669.1-2.133%42%
Last 10 (10)39.231.871.0+7.470%40%
Last 5 (5)39.428.067.4+11.480%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.035.869.8-1.840%20%
vs Similar (7)33.434.367.7-0.929%29%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)39.031.870.8+7.272%39%
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IowaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois State
#96
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H26/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A01/03
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H06/03
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
35-27
35
27
+8
A07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
45-32
45
32
+13
A07/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A08/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A20/03
NCAA
Cornell College
#434
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H04/11
NCAA
Furman
#81
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#176
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H11/11
NCAA
72.6Avg total
37.5Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)33.431.564.9+1.947%30%
Last 30 at home (14)34.431.165.5+3.450%21%
Last 30 away (16)32.531.964.4+0.644%38%
Last 10 (10)37.535.172.6+2.460%60%
Last 5 (5)39.640.880.4-1.260%100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)34.734.068.7+0.733%67%
vs Similar (12)32.833.266.1-0.442%42%
vs Weaker (14)32.828.861.6+4.050%7%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Michigan State win
MICH win
no forecast
@ 1.03
NORT win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Michigan State -17 · main lineActual: Northern Iowa +17
MICH -17
no forecast
@ 1.87
NORT +17
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 74 · main lineActual: Over 74
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Michigan State 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Michigan State over 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Northern Iowa 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Northern Iowa over 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Michigan State -18.5Actual: Northern Iowa +18.5
MICH -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
NORT +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Michigan State -15.5Actual: Northern Iowa +15.5
MICH -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
NORT +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Michigan State -19.5Actual: Northern Iowa +19.5
MICH -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
NORT +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Michigan State -14.5Actual: Michigan State -14.5
MICH -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
NORT +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Michigan State -20.5Actual: Northern Iowa +20.5
MICH -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
NORT +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Michigan State (regulation)
MICH
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
NORT
no forecast
@ 12.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MICH win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
NORT win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MICH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Northern Iowa +2571.5%2.55
Bet365
2.55		----+35.0ppLost
Michigan State under 9382.5%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+32.5ppLost
Michigan State under 90.574.2%2.05
Betano
2.05		----+30.1ppLost
Michigan State under 89.570.9%2.22
Betano
2.22		----+30.1ppLost
Michigan State under 9279.7%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+29.7ppLost
Michigan State under 92.580.3%1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83		+28.9ppLost
Michigan State under 91.577.4%1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93		---+28.8ppLost
Michigan State under 93.583.0%1.74
Marathon Bet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.67		--+28.8ppLost
Michigan State under 94.585.4%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+27.0ppLost
Michigan State under 95.587.6%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+25.2ppLost
Michigan State under 96.589.5%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+24.0ppLost
Michigan State under 97.591.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+22.7ppLost
Under 15871.0%1.62
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.60		---+13.1ppLost
Under 15973.1%1.60
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.54		---+12.7ppLost
Under 158.571.6%1.58
Marathon Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55		--+12.5ppLost
Under 159.573.7%1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50		---+12.3ppLost
Under 16075.2%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+11.7ppLost
Under 160.575.7%1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44		---+11.5ppLost
Under 163.581.1%1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30		---+11.5ppLost
Under 16279.0%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+11.4ppLost
Under 16177.1%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+11.4ppLost
Under 161.577.5%1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38		---+11.0ppLost
Under 162.579.3%1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34		---+11.0ppLost
Under 16380.7%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+10.3ppLost
Northern Iowa over 58.574.8%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+9.3ppWon
Northern Iowa over 59.571.5%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+9.2ppWon
Northern Iowa over 57.577.9%1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.27		---+7.2ppWon
Northern Iowa over 55.583.4%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+3.9ppWon
Northern Iowa over 51.591.5%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+3.2ppWon
Northern Iowa over 53.587.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+2.9ppWon
Michigan State (regulation)93.7%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+2.0ppWon
Michigan State win94.6%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+0.6ppWon
Michigan State over 73.585.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----6.4ppWon
Michigan State over 75.580.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----9.9ppWon
Michigan State over 77.574.8%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----14.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Michigan State wins
0
Northern Iowa wins
No previous meetings.
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ADuke79-73
06/11/26HToledo91-61
03/11/26HQuinnipiac96-59
28/03/26AUconn63-67
21/03/26HLouisville77-69
19/03/26HNorth Dakota St92-67
14/03/26HUCLA84-88
08/03/26AMichigan80-90
06/03/26HRutgers91-87
01/03/26AIndiana77-64
Northern Iowalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HWisc. Green Bay89-76
07/11/26AFurman83-98
04/11/26HCornell College106-70
20/03/26ASt. John's (N.Y.)53-79
08/03/26AIllinois (Chi.)84-69
07/03/26ABradley73-69
07/03/26AIllinois State74-52
06/03/26HEvansville68-59
01/03/26ADrake75-53
26/02/26HIllinois State69-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game88.793.579.0
Allowed / game64.360.073.0
Point differential+24.3+33.5+6.0
Avg total153.0153.5152.0
Over 1550%0%0%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Northern Iowa
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game92.797.583.0
Allowed / game81.373.098.0
Point differential+11.3+24.5-15.0
Avg total174.0170.5181.0
Over 155100%100%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UCLA330100%101.358.3+43.0
2 Nebraska330100%89.060.7+28.3
3 Rutgers330100%84.756.3+28.3
4 Oregon330100%95.068.7+26.3
5 Michigan State330100%88.764.3+24.3
6 Indiana440100%89.068.0+21.0
7 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
8 Minnesota440100%78.858.5+20.2
9 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
10 USC330100%88.371.3+17.0
11 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
12 Illinois32167%103.366.3+37.0
13 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
14 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Penn State53260%77.675.6+2.0
18 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake220100%88.058.0+30.0
2 Murray State330100%93.764.0+29.7
3 Illinois (Chi.)330100%85.758.3+27.3
4 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
5 Belmont32167%74.062.3+11.7
6 Northern Iowa32167%92.781.3+11.3
7 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
8 Evansville32167%75.373.0+2.3
9 Bradley42250%59.555.0+4.5
10 Illinois State31233%81.373.7+7.7
11 Indiana State31233%70.775.3-4.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan State5947106
Northern Iowa442872
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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