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Michigan State vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 16 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 92-69
0-0 58-28 0-0 34-41
Position#29
Record9-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game62.1
vs
Position#156
Record5-5
FormLLWLL
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game77.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Michigan State v Toledo
05 Nov 2026
MICH v TOLE
upcoming
16 Dec 2025
MICH92
TOLE69
04 Dec 2021
MICH81
TOLE68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Colgate
#168
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
79-60
79
60
+19
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
83-66
83
66
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
84-56
84
56
+28
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-52
71
52
+19
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H06/12
NCAA
Penn State
#298
W
76-72
76
72
+4
A13/12
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
37-34
0-0
43-35
0-0
36-39
0-0
33-27
0-0
46-23
0-0
33-37
0-0
44-27
0-0
39-39
0-0
41-25
0-0
43-31
0-0
47-24
0-0
42-32
0-0
33-28
0-0
41-30
0-0
35-21
0-0
36-31
0-0
34-31
0-0
26-35
0-0
36-39
0-0
40-33
138.6Avg total
76.5Scored
62.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)76.562.1138.6+14.490%
Season at home (7)73.961.0134.9+12.986%
Season away (3)82.764.7147.3+18.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.562.1138.6+14.490%
Last 5 (5)74.060.8134.8+13.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)60.066.0126.0-6.00%
vs Similar (13)71.864.4136.2+7.577%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)78.466.3144.7+12.188%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Youngstown State
#227
W
92-75
92
75
+17
H20/11
NCAA
Logrono
#24
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H22/11
Segunda FEB
Troy
#84
W
75-68
75
68
+7
A24/11
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
72-87
72
87
-15
A26/11
NCAA
Central State (OH)
#486
W
102-58
102
58
+44
H01/12
NCAA
Moron
#11
L
90-93 OT
90
93
-3
A06/12
Segunda FEB
Oakland
#212
L
97-98
97
98
-1
A06/12
NCAA
Gijon
#27
W
94-77
94
77
+17
H10/12
Segunda FEB
Robert Morris
#74
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A13/12
NCAA
Clavijo
#10
L
75-78
75
78
-3
A14/12
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
41-35
0-0
51-40
18-16
22-17
17-25
24-15
0-0
30-36
0-0
45-32
0-0
33-36
0-0
39-51
0-0
46-21
0-0
56-37
17-13
26-23
10-27
20-10
0-0
48-45
0-0
49-53
24-24
27-16
16-16
27-21
0-0
42-24
0-0
28-51
20-24
21-16
14-21
20-17
163.0Avg total
84.8Scored
78.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)82.677.6160.2+5.050%
Season at home (5)86.275.4161.6+10.860%
Season away (5)79.079.8158.8-0.840%
Last 10 (10)84.878.2163.0+6.650%
Last 5 (5)85.284.2169.4+1.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)83.392.5175.8-9.233%
vs Similar (16)76.878.4155.2-1.625%
vs Weaker (8)90.873.2164.0+17.588%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +9.8+9.8Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +3.2+3.2
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +9.8+9.8Q2: +6.7+6.7Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +3.2+3.2
Michigan StateToledo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Colgate
#168
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H04/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H09/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H13/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A18/11
NCAA
Detroit
#184
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
47-24
47
24
+23
A25/11
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H27/11
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H03/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H06/12
NCAA
Penn State
#298
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A13/12
NCAA
68.0Avg total
38.9Scored
29.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.031.866.8+3.247%-
Last 30 at home (19)35.931.066.9+4.958%-
Last 30 away (11)33.533.166.5+0.427%-
Last 10 (10)38.929.168.0+9.880%-
Last 5 (5)37.028.665.6+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.031.065.0+3.0100%-
vs Similar (13)31.532.163.6-0.531%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)37.931.669.4+6.356%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Youngstown State
#227
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H20/11
NCAA
Logrono
#24
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H22/11
Segunda FEB
Troy
#84
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A24/11
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A26/11
NCAA
Central State (OH)
#486
W
46-21
46
21
+25
H01/12
NCAA
Moron
#11
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A06/12
Segunda FEB
Oakland
#212
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A06/12
NCAA
Gijon
#27
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H10/12
Segunda FEB
Robert Morris
#74
W
42-24
42
24
+18
A13/12
NCAA
Clavijo
#10
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A14/12
Segunda FEB
76.1Avg total
41.5Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.338.076.3+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.135.575.7+4.667%-
Last 30 away (15)36.540.476.9-3.933%-
Last 10 (10)41.534.676.1+6.980%-
Last 5 (5)45.037.082.0+8.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)35.743.879.5-8.233%-
vs Similar (16)36.438.775.1-2.338%-
vs Weaker (8)44.232.176.4+12.188%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Michigan State wins
0
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
04/12/21Michigan State v Toledo81-68
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25APenn State76-72
06/12/25HDuke60-66
03/12/25HIowa71-52
27/11/25HNorth Carolina74-58
25/11/25AEast Carolina89-56
21/11/25HDetroit84-56
18/11/25AKentucky83-66
13/11/25HSan Jose State79-60
09/11/25HArkansas69-66
04/11/25HColgate80-69
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25AClavijo75-78
13/12/25ARobert Morris70-75
10/12/25HGijon94-77
06/12/25AOakland97-98
06/12/25AMoron90-93 OT
01/12/25HCentral State (OH)102-58
26/11/25ABelmont72-87
24/11/25ATroy75-68
22/11/25HLogrono81-73
20/11/25HYoungstown State92-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW90%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %90%86%100%
Points / game76.573.982.7
Allowed / game62.161.064.7
Point differential+14.4+12.9+18.0
Avg total138.6134.9147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+70%71%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL50%
HomeLLWWW60%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %50%60%40%
Points / game82.686.279.0
Allowed / game77.675.479.8
Point differential+5.0+10.8-0.8
Avg total160.2161.6158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%40%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan10100100%94.767.7+27.0
2 Nebraska11110100%83.868.3+15.5
3 Purdue1110191%84.667.1+17.5
4 USC1110191%87.576.9+10.6
5 Michigan State109190%76.562.1+14.4
6 Iowa119282%79.361.8+17.5
7 Ohio State108280%87.672.9+14.7
8 Indiana118373%85.667.4+18.3
9 Illinois118373%87.871.5+16.3
10 Penn State118373%81.174.5+6.6
11 Washington107370%84.773.4+11.3
12 UCLA107370%76.766.7+10.0
13 Wisconsin107370%85.175.4+9.7
14 Northwestern106460%82.371.1+11.2
15 Minnesota116555%73.468.1+5.3
16 Maryland116555%77.680.5-2.9
17 Oregon105550%76.074.1+1.9
18 Rutgers115645%68.973.1-4.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)10100100%93.269.0+24.2
2 Buffalo119282%77.571.4+6.1
3 Akron118373%95.878.5+17.4
4 Kent State118373%96.082.2+13.8
5 UMass118373%80.373.6+6.6
6 Bowling Green107370%88.365.8+22.5
7 Eastern Michigan116555%71.970.9+1.0
8 Toledo105550%82.677.6+5.0
9 Western Michigan115645%74.479.5-5.1
10 Ohio104640%75.381.2-5.9
11 Central Michigan103730%72.378.6-6.3
12 Northern Illinois103730%74.080.3-6.3
13 Ball State113827%64.969.4-4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Michigan State05803492
Toledo02804169
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