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Michigan vs Oakland Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 84-68
47-36 37-32
Position#142
Record-
FormWWWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Michigan 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ MICH 94%■ OAKL 6%
Pythia win probability
Projected 88-70
Projected total 157.4
Oakland
USA
Position#289
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Michigan v Oakland
02 Nov 2026
MICH84
OAKL68
03 Nov 2025
MICH121
OAKL78
29 Nov 2020
MICH81
OAKL71
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Michigan faces Oakland in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model designating Michigan as the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win largely because of their dominant 5-0 run in the last five games and a projected 88-70 victory; Oakland is projected 70 points and 6% to win. Michigan has gone 5-0 in their last five contests, including a 69-63 win over Uconn at home on 6 April 2026, a 91-73 victory over Arizona away on 4 April 2026, and a 95-62 home win over Tennessee on 29 March 2026, while Oakland has 2-3 in their last five, with losses to Northern Kentucky 84-85 at home on 4 March 2026, Detroit 89-95 at home on 28 February 2026, and a 86-74 away win over IU Indy on 25 February 2026. The teams have met twice before, both times Michigan winning 121-78 on 3 November 2025. Pythia projects a 157.4 total score, with a 50% chance of the over on the 157.5 line, and a 1% chance of overtime. The projected score of 88-70 reflects Michigan's superior offensive output and Oakland's recent struggles.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Michigan winWon
94.1%fair 1.06
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge-0.1pp
Oakland winLost
5.9%fair 16.90
Best odds21.00
Implied5.8%
Edge+0.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan State
#29
W
90-80
90
80
+10
H08/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
68-65
68
65
+3
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
101-80
101
80
+21
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
95-72
95
72
+23
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
90-77
90
77
+13
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
95-62
95
62
+33
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
91-73
91
73
+18
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
69-63
69
63
+6
H07/04
NCAA
1H
2H
42-41
48-39
39-35
32-32
28-28
40-37
38-38
34-42
50-46
51-34
48-39
47-33
47-49
43-28
48-26
47-36
48-32
43-41
33-29
36-34
156.1Avg total
84.2Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.271.9156.1+12.390%
Last 5 (5)88.069.4157.4+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)83.270.8154.0+12.575%
vs Weaker (26)85.170.0155.1+15.192%
OaklandUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IPFW
#181
W
74-65
74
65
+9
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H01/02
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A05/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H13/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
69-93
69
93
-24
A15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
L
68-73
68
73
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
81-70
81
70
+11
H22/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
86-74
86
74
+12
A25/02
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
89-95
89
95
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-38
34-27
29-30
47-35
42-32
36-59
39-44
43-42
38-42
31-51
32-37
36-36
41-34
40-36
43-33
43-41
42-49
47-46
31-37
53-48
158.4Avg total
78.7Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.779.7158.4-1.040%
Last 5 (5)81.679.4161.0+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)74.280.7154.9-6.530%
vs Similar (13)87.183.1170.2+4.062%
vs Weaker (7)87.673.9161.4+13.771%
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
61.7%
@ 1.52+0.1pp
Under 152.5
38.3%
@ 2.50-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
49.5%
@ 1.95-0.2pp
Under 157.5
50.5%
@ 1.90+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
37.4%
@ 2.70+2.2pp
Under 162.5
62.6%
@ 1.44-2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41

📊 3. Team Totals

Michigan total 88Actual: Michigan under 88
Over 88
49.2%
Under 88
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Michigan total 92 · main lineActual: Michigan under 92
Over 92
32.9%
@ 1.87-16.8pp
Under 92
67.1%
@ 1.85+16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Michigan total 95.5Actual: Michigan under 95.5
Over 95.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47
Oakland total 61Actual: Oakland over 61
Over 61
81.1%
Under 61
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 65 · main lineActual: Oakland over 65
Over 65
68.0%
@ 1.87+18.5pp
Under 65
32.0%
@ 1.83-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
Oakland total 69Actual: Oakland under 69
Over 69
52.0%
Under 69
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Michigan -30Actual: Oakland +30
MICH -30
no forecast
@ 2.25
OAKL +30
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
2.25
OAKL
Bet365
1.57
Spread Michigan -27 · main lineActual: Oakland +27
MICH -27
no forecast
@ 1.88
OAKL +27
no forecast
@ 1.83
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.87
OAKL
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Michigan -24Actual: Oakland +24
MICH -24
29.6%
@ 1.57-29.3pp
OAKL +24
70.4%
@ 2.25+29.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MICH
Bet365
1.57
OAKL
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.8+5.81st half: +0.1+0.12nd half2nd half: +6.5+6.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
MichiganOakland
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan State
#29
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H13/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
D
28-28
28
28
+0
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H15/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H19/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H21/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H27/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H29/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A05/04
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H07/04
NCAA
78.4Avg total
42.1Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)42.034.276.2+7.873%53%
Last 30 at home (19)43.334.778.1+8.679%58%
Last 30 away (11)39.733.373.0+6.564%45%
Last 10 (10)42.136.378.4+5.870%60%
Last 5 (5)44.835.079.8+9.880%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)41.834.276.0+7.575%50%
vs Weaker (26)42.034.276.2+7.873%54%
OaklandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IPFW
#181
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H01/02
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
42-32
42
32
+10
A05/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H13/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H22/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A25/02
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H05/03
NCAA
75.3Avg total
37.7Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)39.839.078.9+0.847%60%
Last 30 at home (13)41.839.180.9+2.838%62%
Last 30 away (17)38.339.077.3-0.753%59%
Last 10 (10)37.737.675.3+0.140%50%
Last 5 (5)37.838.075.8-0.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)34.240.374.5-6.120%50%
vs Similar (13)40.741.382.0-0.646%77%
vs Weaker (7)46.333.079.3+13.386%43%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Michigan win
MICH win
no forecast
@ 1.05
OAKL win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Michigan -13.5 · main lineActual: Oakland +13.5
MICH -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
OAKL +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Michigan 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Michigan over 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.92
Oakland 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Oakland over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: MICH + total 76.5
MICH & over
no forecast
@ 1.95
MICH & under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: Draw + total 76.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: OAKL + total 76.5
OAKL & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
OAKL & under
no forecast
@ 23.00
1st half Over/Under 77Actual: Over 77
Over
no forecast
@ 1.97
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Michigan -14.5Actual: Oakland +14.5
MICH -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
OAKL +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Michigan -12.5Actual: Oakland +12.5
MICH -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
OAKL +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.30
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Michigan -15.5Actual: Oakland +15.5
MICH -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
OAKL +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Michigan -11.5Actual: Oakland +11.5
MICH -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
OAKL +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Michigan (regulation)
MICH
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
OAKL
no forecast
@ 13.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MICH win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
OAKL win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MICH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OAKL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Oakland +2573.4%2.12
Bet365
2.12		----+29.8ppWon
Oakland +2470.4%2.25
Bet365
2.25		----+29.3ppWon
Oakland +24.571.3%2.19
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18		---+29.0ppWon
Oakland over 63.572.6%1.70
Betano
1.70		----+17.9ppWon
Oakland over 62.575.8%1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52		---+16.0ppWon
Oakland over 61.578.9%1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43		---+15.2ppWon
Oakland over 60.581.6%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34		---+14.2ppWon
Oakland over 59.584.2%1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28		---+13.8ppWon
Oakland over 58.586.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+10.3ppWon
Oakland over 57.588.5%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+9.7ppWon
Oakland over 56.590.3%1.13
Bet365
1.13		----+8.1ppWon
Oakland over 55.591.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+7.6ppWon
Michigan (regulation)93.1%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+3.0ppWon
Over 131.594.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.8ppWon
Michigan over 71.595.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.3ppWon
Michigan over 72.593.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.1ppWon
Over 136.590.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+0.6ppWon
Michigan over 73.592.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.3ppWon
Michigan over 74.591.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.1ppWon
Michigan win94.1%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----0.1ppWon
Over 14970.1%1.32
Bet365
1.32		-----0.4ppWon
Over 148.570.8%1.29
Bet365
1.29		-----1.1ppWon
Under 176.588.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.3ppWon
Over 146.574.9%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----1.3ppWon
Michigan over 75.589.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----1.4ppWon
Over 141.583.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.8ppWon
Michigan over 76.587.4%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.3ppWon
Under 166.571.5%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----3.2ppWon
Under 171.580.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----3.5ppWon
Michigan over 77.585.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----3.8ppWon
Michigan over 78.582.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----5.2ppWon
Oakland under 81.588.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----5.6ppWon
Oakland under 80.586.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----6.1ppWon
Michigan over 79.580.0%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----6.6ppWon
Oakland under 79.583.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----7.2ppWon
Michigan -6.585.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----7.7ppWon
Michigan over 80.577.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----8.0ppWon
Oakland under 78.581.4%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----8.8ppWon
Michigan over 82.570.5%1.16
Bet365
1.16		-----9.0ppWon
Michigan over 81.573.9%1.12
Bet365
1.12		-----9.2ppWon
Oakland under 77.578.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----10.7ppWon
Oakland under 76.575.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----12.6ppWon
Oakland under 75.572.6%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----14.1ppWon
Michigan -11.572.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----16.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Michigan wins
0
Oakland wins
DateGameScore
04/11/25Michigan v Oakland121-78
29/11/20Michigan v Oakland81-71 OT
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/26HUconn69-63
05/04/26AArizona91-73
29/03/26HTennessee95-62
27/03/26HAlabama90-77
21/03/26HSt. Louis Billikens95-72
19/03/26HHoward101-80
15/03/26HPurdue72-80
14/03/26HWisconsin68-65
13/03/26HOhio State71-67
08/03/26HMichigan State90-80
Oaklandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HNorthern Kentucky84-85
28/02/26HDetroit89-95
25/02/26AIU Indy86-74
22/02/26HWisc. Milwaukee81-70
21/02/26HWisc. Green Bay68-73
15/02/26ARobert Morris69-93
13/02/26HYoungstown State82-86
05/02/26ACleveland State78-91
01/02/26HNorthern Kentucky76-65
29/01/26AIPFW74-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Michigan
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 157.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Oakland
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 157.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nicholls State110100%110.056.0+54.0
2 Illinois (Chi.)110100%96.047.0+49.0
3 Hofstra110100%97.051.0+46.0
4 Middle Tenn. St.110100%117.073.0+44.0
5 South Carolina St110100%94.055.0+39.0
6 IU Indy110100%113.076.0+37.0
7 Mercer110100%90.053.0+37.0
8 Princeton110100%78.046.0+32.0
9 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
10 George Mason110100%82.054.0+28.0
11 McNeese State110100%99.078.0+21.0
12 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
13 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
14 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
15 Northern Kentucky110100%84.076.0+8.0
16 Queens Royals110100%103.098.0+5.0
17 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
18 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
19 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
20 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
21 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
22 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
23 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
24 Liberty1010%57.072.0-15.0
25 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
26 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
27 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
28 Tennessee State1010%64.094.0-30.0
29 Carnegie Mellon1010%46.078.0-32.0
30 Miami (OH) - Middletown1010%76.0113.0-37.0
31 Reinhardt1010%53.090.0-37.0
32 Morris College1010%55.094.0-39.0
33 Fisk1010%73.0117.0-44.0
34 St. Joseph's (Brooklyn)1010%51.097.0-46.0
35 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
36 North American Stallions1010%56.0110.0-54.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Michigan473784
Oakland363268
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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