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Mississippi St. vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 29 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 81-87 (OT)
43-39 31-35 7-13
Position#257
Record4-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game77.7
vs
Position#129
Record7-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game92.7
Allowed / game73.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mississippi St. winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mississippi St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#118
L
92-93
92
93
-1
A08/03
NCAA
LSU
#255
W
91-62
91
62
+29
H12/03
NCAA
Missouri
#89
L
73-85
73
85
-12
A13/03
NCAA
Baylor
#149
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H21/03
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
W
86-62
86
62
+24
H06/11
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
96-80
96
80
+16
H11/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
77-98
77
98
-21
A21/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A22/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
W
81-78 OT
81
78
+3
H25/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-45
48-48
44-24
47-38
34-39
39-46
32-37
40-38
38-37
48-25
53-35
43-45
40-35
35-33
36-44
41-54
39-40
39-40
28-34
40-34
160.2Avg total
82.1Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)82.277.7159.8+4.567%
Season at home (4)84.572.0156.5+12.5100%
Season away (2)77.589.0166.5-11.50%
Last 10 (10)82.178.1160.2+4.050%
Last 5 (5)81.480.8162.2+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)72.885.4158.2-12.711%
vs Similar (15)80.377.1157.5+3.260%
vs Weaker (6)82.562.7145.2+19.8100%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
L
83-85
83
85
-2
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
96-76
96
76
+20
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
102-91
102
91
+11
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
87-85
87
85
+2
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
106-60
106
60
+46
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H25/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
27-28
0-0
27-29
0-0
33-32
0-0
40-31
0-0
41-40
0-0
42-45
0-0
48-38
0-0
48-38
0-0
32-28
0-0
37-30
0-0
49-42
0-0
53-49
0-0
38-43
0-0
49-42
0-0
45-26
0-0
61-34
0-0
50-30
0-0
50-39
0-0
46-38
0-0
43-34
157.5Avg total
85.9Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)92.773.0165.7+19.7100%
Season at home (7)92.773.0165.7+19.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)85.971.6157.5+14.380%
Last 5 (5)96.875.4172.2+21.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar (10)78.975.4154.3+3.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)82.670.1152.7+12.583%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +7.9+7.9
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +1.8+1.81st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +7.9+7.9
Mississippi St.SMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Mississippi St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#118
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A08/03
NCAA
LSU
#255
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H12/03
NCAA
Missouri
#89
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A13/03
NCAA
Baylor
#149
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/03
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H06/11
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
53-35
53
35
+18
H11/11
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#343
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H15/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A21/11
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A22/11
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H25/11
NCAA
75.8Avg total
38.8Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.635.872.5+0.850%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.935.072.9+2.953%-
Last 30 away (13)35.036.971.9-1.946%-
Last 10 (10)38.837.075.8+1.840%-
Last 5 (5)39.237.676.8+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)33.341.074.3-7.722%-
vs Similar (15)37.335.072.3+2.353%-
vs Weaker (6)40.030.270.2+9.883%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H19/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H25/11
NCAA
75.4Avg total
40.9Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.933.472.3+5.567%-
Last 30 at home (20)39.834.574.3+5.275%-
Last 30 away (10)37.031.168.1+5.950%-
Last 10 (10)40.934.575.4+6.480%-
Last 5 (5)45.635.881.4+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar (10)37.135.872.9+1.360%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)40.631.772.3+8.872%-
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Mississippi St. wins
0
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
23/11/24SMU Mustangs v Mississippi St.79-84
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/25HNew Orleans81-78 OT
22/11/25ANew Mexico78-80
21/11/25AKansas State77-98
15/11/25HSE Louisiana75-68
11/11/25HIowa State96-80
06/11/25HNorth Alabama86-62
21/03/25HBaylor72-75
13/03/25AMissouri73-85
12/03/25HLSU91-62
08/03/25AArkansas92-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/25HRadford89-72
22/11/25HArkansas State100-69
19/11/25HArkansas-Pine Bluff106-60
15/11/25HButler87-85
12/11/25HMurray State102-91
07/11/25HTexas A&M-CC69-58
04/11/25HTarleton96-76
23/03/25HOklahoma State83-85
20/03/25HNorthern Iowa73-63
14/03/25AClemson54-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mississippi St.
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game82.284.577.5
Allowed / game77.772.089.0
Point differential+4.5+12.5-11.5
Avg total159.8156.5166.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%25%0%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games77-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game92.792.7-
Allowed / game73.073.0-
Point differential+19.7+19.7-
Avg total165.7165.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+86%86%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 LSU550100%98.670.6+28.0
2 Missouri880100%92.968.1+24.8
3 Vanderbilt880100%97.973.5+24.4
4 Tennessee87188%85.965.4+20.5
5 Georgia76186%95.669.6+26.0
6 Texas86275%90.971.9+19.0
7 Texas A&M86275%93.675.4+18.2
8 Auburn86275%88.574.6+13.9
9 Kentucky75271%89.963.1+26.7
10 Arkansas75271%88.171.6+16.6
11 Alabama75271%95.682.0+13.6
12 Florida75271%85.972.6+13.3
13 Oklahoma75271%86.674.4+12.1
14 Ole Miss75271%79.167.7+11.4
15 South Carolina75271%80.770.0+10.7
16 Mississippi St.64267%82.277.7+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville770100%96.763.0+33.7
2 Duke880100%91.958.8+33.1
3 SMU Mustangs770100%92.773.0+19.7
4 Clemson76186%84.364.9+19.4
5 North Carolina76186%83.365.7+17.6
6 California76186%84.469.6+14.9
7 Stanford65183%81.871.0+10.8
8 Georgia Tech65183%72.863.5+9.3
9 Wake Forest86275%87.471.9+15.5
10 Virginia86275%83.472.4+11.0
11 Virginia Tech86275%82.673.9+8.8
12 Miami (FL)75271%87.965.4+22.4
13 NC State75271%93.676.6+17.0
14 Florida State75271%88.373.9+14.4
15 Notre Dame85362%75.467.2+8.1
16 Syracuse74357%74.965.3+9.6
17 Pittsburgh74357%72.166.6+5.6
18 Boston College84450%70.565.6+4.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Mississippi St.4331781
SMU Mustangs39351387
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