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SMU Mustangs vs Murray State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 12 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 102-91
49-42 53-49
Position#129
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game67.0
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
vs
Murray State
USA
Position#102
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game96.5
Allowed / game68.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murray State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
81-77
81
77
+4
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
77-75
77
75
+2
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
L
69-76
69
76
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
73-53
73
53
+20
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
L
83-85
83
85
-2
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
96-76
96
76
+20
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
42-29
0-0
39-48
0-0
39-45
0-0
29-28
0-0
36-44
0-0
41-31
0-0
32-33
0-0
37-43
0-0
31-28
0-0
42-25
0-0
27-28
0-0
27-29
0-0
33-32
0-0
40-31
0-0
41-40
0-0
42-45
0-0
48-38
0-0
48-38
0-0
32-28
0-0
37-30
143.6Avg total
74.3Scored
69.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)82.567.0149.5+15.5100%
Season at home (2)82.567.0149.5+15.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.369.3143.6+5.060%
Last 5 (5)75.067.8142.8+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar ◀ (7)71.174.6145.7-3.429%
vs Weaker (21)81.568.6150.1+12.986%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H12/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
67-74
67
74
-7
H18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
62-60
62
60
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A22/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
60-70
60
70
-10
A02/03
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
74-53
74
53
+21
H07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
62-70
62
70
-8
A08/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
108-60
108
60
+48
H08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-20
32-33
34-37
33-37
33-24
29-36
39-36
36-39
39-40
46-35
22-41
38-29
35-29
39-24
28-27
34-43
34-31
51-46
47-23
61-37
142.6Avg total
74.9Scored
67.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)96.568.5165.0+28.0100%
Season at home (2)96.568.5165.0+28.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.967.7142.6+7.260%
Last 5 (5)77.866.0143.8+11.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)65.066.0131.0-1.033%
vs Similar ◀ (16)71.971.9143.8-0.150%
vs Weaker (8)75.168.4143.5+6.862%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +4.0+4.0
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +1.6+1.61st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +4.0+4.0
SMU MustangsMurray State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A27/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A01/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#177
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H07/11
NCAA
70.6Avg total
36.1Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.333.170.4+4.163%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.434.071.4+3.472%-
Last 30 away (12)37.031.868.8+5.250%-
Last 10 (10)36.134.570.6+1.660%-
Last 5 (5)36.233.269.4+3.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)32.335.467.7-3.143%-
vs Weaker (21)39.432.071.4+7.371%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
W
31-20
31
20
+11
H12/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H20/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
22-41
22
41
-19
A02/03
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H07/03
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
47-23
47
23
+24
H08/11
NCAA
65.0Avg total
34.2Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.432.163.5-0.853%-
Last 30 at home (17)32.532.064.5+0.547%-
Last 30 away (13)29.932.362.2-2.462%-
Last 10 (10)34.230.865.0+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)33.230.263.4+3.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)29.832.562.3-2.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)31.733.465.1-1.850%-
vs Weaker (8)31.929.261.1+2.675%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Murray State wins
DateGameScore
22/12/23Murray State v SMU Mustangs65-92
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/25HTexas A&M-CC69-58
04/11/25HTarleton96-76
23/03/25HOklahoma State83-85
20/03/25HNorthern Iowa73-63
14/03/25AClemson54-57
13/03/25HSyracuse73-53
08/03/25AFlorida State69-76
05/03/25HSyracuse77-75
01/03/25AStanford68-73
27/02/25ACalifornia81-77
Murray Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/25HMiss. Valley St.108-60
03/11/25HNebraska O.85-77
08/03/25ABradley62-70
07/03/25HEvansville74-53
02/03/25ABelmont60-70
26/02/25HIndiana State85-75
22/02/25ABradley83-85 OT
20/02/25HSouthern Illinois62-60
18/02/25HNorthern Iowa67-74
12/02/25HIllinois (Chi.)63-53

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game82.582.5-
Allowed / game67.067.0-
Point differential+15.5+15.5-
Avg total149.5149.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game96.596.5-
Allowed / game68.568.5-
Point differential+28.0+28.0-
Avg total165.0165.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%105.057.5+47.5
2 Syracuse220100%84.045.0+39.0
3 Clemson330100%89.351.0+38.3
4 Duke330100%94.757.7+37.0
5 NC State220100%104.068.0+36.0
6 Miami (FL)330100%96.363.7+32.7
7 Virginia220100%84.057.5+26.5
8 Notre Dame330100%89.765.0+24.7
9 North Carolina330100%90.067.3+22.7
10 California330100%85.764.0+21.7
11 Virginia Tech220100%102.584.0+18.5
12 Stanford220100%90.073.5+16.5
13 SMU Mustangs220100%82.567.0+15.5
14 Pittsburgh330100%76.761.7+15.0
15 Georgia Tech330100%66.752.3+14.3
16 Florida State32167%95.072.7+22.3
17 Wake Forest32167%84.374.7+9.7
18 Boston College31233%71.063.3+7.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Southern Illinois220100%92.060.0+32.0
2 Murray State220100%96.568.5+28.0
3 Northern Iowa220100%75.557.5+18.0
4 Drake32167%81.767.7+14.0
5 Evansville32167%73.059.7+13.3
6 Indiana State32167%81.373.3+8.0
7 Belmont32167%72.380.3-8.0
8 Bradley21150%74.061.5+12.5
9 Illinois (Chi.)21150%82.073.5+8.5
10 Illinois State21150%72.068.5+3.5
11 Valparaiso21150%62.585.0-22.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs4953102
Murray State424991
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