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Missouri State vs New Mexico State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 89-82
53-41 36-41
Position#223
Record8-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game68.5
vs
Position#178
Record9-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game67.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
New Mexico State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#150
L
49-67
49
67
-18
A15/11
NCAA
Rio Grande Redmen
#199
W
74-67
74
67
+7
H22/11
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
61-75
61
75
-14
H25/11
NCAA
Northeastern State
#422
W
92-71
92
71
+21
H30/11
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
74-98
74
98
-24
A06/12
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
57-75
57
75
-18
A13/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H17/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
W
70-65
70
65
+5
H23/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
61-43
61
43
+18
A29/12
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
79-55
79
55
+24
H03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
25-34
24-33
28-30
46-37
40-35
21-40
60-33
32-38
32-48
42-50
28-31
29-44
30-24
33-38
34-22
36-43
27-17
34-26
49-23
30-32
135.8Avg total
68.0Scored
67.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)73.868.5142.3+5.262%
Season at home (9)79.867.6147.3+12.278%
Season away (4)60.270.8131.0-10.525%
Last 10 (10)68.067.8135.8+0.260%
Last 5 (5)66.060.0126.0+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)67.073.7140.7-6.713%
vs Similar ◀ (9)63.170.6133.7-7.422%
vs Weaker (3)67.753.3121.0+14.3100%
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
W
76-68
76
68
+8
H16/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
81-72
81
72
+9
H22/11
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A26/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H26/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
77-75
77
75
+2
A03/12
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A06/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
70-83
70
83
-13
H13/12
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H21/12
NCAA
Southwest Mustangs
#706
W
104-33
104
33
+71
H28/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
74-89
74
89
-15
A02/01
NCAA
1H
2H
27-27
49-41
40-32
41-40
26-20
31-25
37-28
40-30
32-36
45-39
27-35
42-42
27-49
43-34
48-28
39-50
52-17
52-16
39-44
35-45
145.0Avg total
77.2Scored
67.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)77.467.3144.8+10.175%
Season at home (8)81.565.2146.8+16.288%
Season away (4)69.271.5140.8-2.250%
Last 10 (10)77.267.8145.0+9.470%
Last 5 (5)80.872.0152.8+8.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)67.367.7135.0-0.350%
vs Similar ◀ (16)68.765.8134.5+2.956%
vs Weaker (6)70.761.5132.2+9.267%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.6+5.61st half: +3.9+3.92nd half2nd half: -5.4-5.42nd half: +5.5+5.5
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.6+5.61st half: +3.9+3.92nd half2nd half: -5.4-5.42nd half: +5.5+5.5
Missouri StateNew Mexico State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#150
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A15/11
NCAA
Rio Grande Redmen
#199
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H22/11
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H25/11
NCAA
Northeastern State
#422
W
60-33
60
33
+27
H30/11
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A06/12
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A13/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H17/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#162
W
34-22
34
22
+12
H23/12
NCAA
Delaware
#326
W
27-17
27
17
+10
A29/12
NCAA
UTEP
#307
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H03/01
NCAA
65.0Avg total
35.3Scored
29.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.631.465.1+2.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.330.566.8+5.853%-
Last 30 away (13)30.232.762.8-2.531%-
Last 10 (10)35.329.765.0+5.660%-
Last 5 (5)33.623.457.0+10.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)31.634.265.8-2.620%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)30.429.960.3+0.656%-
vs Weaker (3)35.321.356.7+14.0100%-
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H16/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H22/11
NCAA
UC Irvine
#60
W
26-20
26
20
+6
A26/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H26/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A03/12
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A06/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
27-49
27
49
-22
H13/12
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
48-28
48
28
+20
H21/12
NCAA
Southwest Mustangs
#706
W
52-17
52
17
+35
H28/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A02/01
NCAA
67.1Avg total
35.5Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.828.962.7+4.963%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.127.462.5+7.875%-
Last 30 away (14)32.330.763.0+1.650%-
Last 10 (10)35.531.667.1+3.950%-
Last 5 (5)38.634.673.2+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)31.330.361.7+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)33.428.161.5+5.462%-
vs Weaker (6)32.730.763.3+2.067%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Missouri State wins
0
New Mexico State wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26HUTEP79-55
29/12/25ADelaware61-43
23/12/25HLindenwood70-65
17/12/25HOral Roberts63-62
13/12/25AXavier57-75
06/12/25ATulsa74-98
30/11/25HNortheastern State92-71
25/11/25HLIU Sharks61-75
22/11/25HRio Grande Redmen74-67
15/11/25AUT Arlington49-67
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26AFlorida International74-89
28/12/25HSouthwest Mustangs104-33
21/12/25HSam Houston St.87-78
13/12/25HTulsa70-83
06/12/25AAbilene Christian69-77
03/12/25ASouth Alabama77-75
26/11/25HGeorgia State77-58
26/11/25AUC Irvine57-45
22/11/25HSamford81-72
16/11/25HNew Mexico76-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW62%
HomeLWWWW78%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %62%78%25%
Points / game73.879.860.2
Allowed / game68.567.670.8
Point differential+5.2+12.2-10.5
Avg total142.3147.3131.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%44%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)67% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
New Mexico State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL75%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1284
Win %75%88%50%
Points / game77.481.569.2
Allowed / game67.365.271.5
Point differential+10.1+16.2-2.2
Avg total144.8146.8140.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty1411379%81.368.1+13.1
2 New Mexico State129375%77.467.3+10.1
3 Middle Tenn. St.149564%76.769.4+7.3
4 Louisiana Tech138562%70.258.5+11.6
5 Florida International138562%88.279.2+8.9
6 Western Kentucky138562%84.578.0+6.5
7 Missouri State138562%73.868.5+5.2
8 Kennesaw State148657%88.975.8+13.1
9 Sam Houston St.148657%86.876.2+10.6
10 Jacksonville State147750%73.964.6+9.3
11 Delaware145936%66.170.7-4.6
12 UTEP134931%70.372.1-1.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State533689
New Mexico State414182
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