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Montecatini vs Pistoia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Projected 74-78
Projected total 152.3
Final 71-86
18-14 22-12 16-31 15-29
Position#20
Record1-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game68.6
Allowed / game82.1
Montecatini
Italy
Vs
35%
65%
■ MONT 35%■ PIS 65%
Pythia win probability
Pistoia 🏆
Italy
Position#9
Record3-4
FormLWWWL
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game69.3
ItalySerie A2Round 8· PalaTerme
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Montecatini will host Pistoia on 8 November 2026 in Serie A2, a clash that pits a team on a starkly different run against one with a more balanced season. Montecatini enters the game with a 1-6 record, averaging 68.6 points while conceding 82.1, and has gone 0-3 at home, allowing 85.7 points per game; their last five outings ended in five losses, including defeats to Basket Torino, Cento and Avellino Basket. In contrast, Pistoia sits 3-4, scoring 76.1 and allowing 69.3, and has posted a 2-2 road record with 75.8 points for and 66.2 against; their last five games included a win over JuVi Cremona and a decisive 96-52 victory over Cento. Pythia assigns a 35% chance to Montecatini and 65% to Pistoia, projecting a 74-78 scoreline and a total of 152.3 points. The home team faces a 5-point line and a 51% chance to cover, while the over on the 154-point line carries a 45% probability; a 5% chance of overtime is also noted. Pistoia's recent win over Cento suggests they may continue their upward trajectory into this encounter.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Montecatini winLost
34.5%fair 2.90
Best odds2.88
Implied32.9%
Edge+1.7pp
Pistoia winWon
65.5%fair 1.53
Best odds1.44
Implied67.1%
Edge-1.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MontecatiniItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMontecatini
Date
Competition
Rimini
#3
L
59-84
59
84
-25
46avg 53
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
81-72
81
72
+9
26avg 53
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#7
L
78-96
78
96
-18
68avg 53
H11/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
69-91
69
91
-22
36avg 53
A17/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
74-85
74
85
-11
76avg 53
A21/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
L
71-77
71
77
-6
64avg 53
H25/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#6
L
48-70
48
70
-22
no box
A04/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
18-14
13-28
7-22
28-16
19-15
15-20
19-21
19-18
16-31
18-28
25-19
20-20
20-27
10-25
19-19
11-24
21-21
16-19
26-21
25-14
17-12
13-26
16-25
15-19
12-23
10-13
11-15
150.7Avg total
68.6Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)68.682.1150.7-13.614%
Season at home (3)69.385.7155.0-16.30%
Season away (4)68.079.5147.5-11.525%
Last 10 (7)68.682.1150.7-13.614%
Last 5 (5)68.083.8151.8-15.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)68.283.0151.2-14.817%
vs Similar (1)71.077.0148.0-6.00%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
79-78
79
78
+1
63avg 67
H08/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
81-88 OT
81
88
-7
66avg 67
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
W
80-78
80
78
+2
72avg 67
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
62-63
62
63
-1
49avg 67
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#6
L
77-84
77
84
-7
28avg 67
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#5
L
70-78
70
78
-8
63avg 67
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
89-70
89
70
+19
84avg 67
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
96-52
96
52
+44
103avg 67
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
W
75-72
75
72
+3
70avg 67
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
64-66
64
66
-2
no box
H01/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-16
24-31
20-18
20-13
20-19
15-19
24-14
16-23
17-25
24-18
23-18
16-17
16-19
18-18
15-11
13-15
20-30
23-19
20-18
14-17
23-24
15-21
12-12
20-21
21-18
27-15
21-20
20-17
24-10
25-13
23-20
24-9
21-20
15-21
14-12
25-19
21-16
17-25
13-13
13-12
150.2Avg total
77.3Scored
72.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)76.169.3145.4+6.943%
Season at home (3)76.773.3150.0+3.333%
Season away (4)75.866.2142.0+9.550%
Last 10 (10)77.372.9150.2+4.450%
Last 5 (5)78.867.6146.4+11.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)73.882.5156.3-8.815%
vs Similar (12)79.884.2164.0-4.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)81.471.2152.6+10.260%
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
63.1%
@ 1.45+0.1pp
Under 146.5
36.9%
@ 2.47-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 151.75 · main lineActual: Over 151.75
Over 151.75
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under 151.75
no forecast
@ 1.82
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.82
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
39.3%
@ 2.30-3.9pp
Under 156.5
60.7%
@ 1.68+3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.21
WilliamHill
2.20
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
WilliamHill
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathon Be
1.58
Betano
1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Montecatini total 70Actual: Montecatini over 70
Over 70
64.9%
Under 70
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montecatini total 74 · main lineActual: Montecatini under 74
Over 74
49.1%
@ 1.84+0.5pp
Under 74
50.9%
@ 1.82-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.64
Montecatini total 78Actual: Montecatini under 78
Over 78
33.7%
Under 78
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pistoia total 74.5Actual: Pistoia over 74.5
Over 74.5
64.8%
@ 1.42+0.8pp
Under 74.5
35.2%
@ 2.60-0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.40
Pistoia total 78.5 · main lineActual: Pistoia over 78.5
Over 78.5
49.5%
@ 1.88-0.5pp
Under 78.5
50.5%
@ 1.85+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.72
Under
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.72
Pistoia total 82.5Actual: Pistoia over 82.5
Over 82.5
34.2%
@ 2.55-2.1pp
Under 82.5
65.8%
@ 1.44+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.39
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Montecatini +2Actual: Pistoia -2
MONT +2
38.9%
PIS -2
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
MONT
No market prices yet.
PIS
No market prices yet.
Spread Montecatini +5 · main lineActual: Pistoia -5
MONT +5
50.7%
@ 1.94+1.5pp
PIS -5
49.3%
@ 1.88-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
MONT
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
PIS
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.80
SBO
1.78
Spread Montecatini +8Actual: Pistoia -8
MONT +8
62.3%
@ 1.57
PIS -8
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
MONT
Marathon Be
1.57
PIS
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -9.1-9.1Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +1.8+1.8
-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -9.1-9.1Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +1.8+1.8
MontecatiniPistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MontecatiniLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#3
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#7
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H11/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A17/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A21/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H25/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#6
L
27-42
27
42
-15
A04/11
Serie A2
76.6Avg total
37.4Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.75
Last 30 (7)37.439.176.6-1.743%57%
Last 30 at home (3)38.736.375.0+2.367%33%
Last 30 away (4)36.541.277.8-4.825%75%
Last 10 (7)37.439.176.6-1.743%57%
Last 5 (5)35.241.877.0-6.620%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)36.741.378.0-4.733%67%
vs Similar (1)42.026.068.0+16.0100%0%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pistoia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H08/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H10/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#16
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A13/05
Serie A2
Libertas Livorno
#1
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A27/09
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#6
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H04/10
Serie A2
Sebastiani Rieti
#5
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A11/10
Serie A2
Vigevano
#16
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H18/10
Serie A2
Cento
#17
W
49-23
49
23
+26
A21/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#18
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A25/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H01/11
Serie A2
79.8Avg total
40.1Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.75
Last 30 (30)39.541.981.4-2.427%70%
Last 30 at home (15)39.740.980.6-1.140%80%
Last 30 away (15)39.342.982.2-3.713%60%
Last 10 (10)40.139.779.8+0.420%70%
Last 5 (5)41.836.678.4+5.240%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)36.240.276.3-4.023%54%
vs Similar (12)41.845.387.1-3.625%83%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)42.838.281.0+4.640%80%
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Montecatini win
MONT win
no forecast
@ 2.60
PIS win
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Montecatini +2.5 · main lineActual: Montecatini +2.5
MONT +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.94
PIS -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 76.75 · main lineActual: Under 76.75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Montecatini 1st half total 37 · main lineActual: Montecatini over 37
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Pistoia 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Pistoia under 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.92
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Montecatini +1.5Actual: Montecatini +1.5
MONT +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
PIS -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Montecatini +3.5Actual: Montecatini +3.5
MONT +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
PIS -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Over/Under 74.25Actual: Under 74.25
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Montecatini +4.5Actual: Montecatini +4.5
MONT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
PIS -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Montecatini +5.5Actual: Montecatini +5.5
MONT +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
PIS -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Montecatini -1.5Actual: Montecatini -1.5
MONT -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.44
PIS +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
1st half Spread Montecatini +6.5Actual: Montecatini +6.5
MONT +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
PIS -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.49
1st half Spread Montecatini -2.5Actual: Montecatini -2.5
MONT -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.70
PIS +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.32
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Pistoia (regulation)
MONT
no forecast
@ 2.50
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
PIS
no forecast
@ 1.60

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MONT win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
PIS win + total 152.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MONT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PIS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 161.571.6%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+5.6ppWon
Overtime: no95.0%1.04
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.03		---+4.1pp-
Montecatini +12.576.1%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+3.8ppLost
Montecatini +11.573.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+3.8ppLost
Montecatini over 67.573.0%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+3.5ppWon
Pistoia under 84.572.7%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+3.1ppLost
Montecatini +10.570.2%1.33
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.30		---+2.6ppLost
Pistoia over 72.571.8%1.27
1xBet
1.27		----+1.8ppWon
Pistoia +2.571.7%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+1.8ppWon
Pistoia +3.574.4%1.26
Betano
1.26		----+1.7ppWon
Montecatini under 79.570.9%1.27
1xBet
1.27		----+0.9ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Montecatinitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Montecatini: 56.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers23.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers24.011.5
47.9%
51.5%23.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.27.3
31.7%
34.5%22.0
🏀 Free throws16.811.8
70.3%
70.9%11.8
They take 47.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.217.9
50.9%
51.5%35.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.8
32.5%
34.5%23.4
🏀 Free throws22.116.9
76.5%
70.9%16.9
They take 59.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Montecatini
LLLLLWL
Pistoia
LWWWLLLWLW
#20
League position
#9
-21.7
Net rating
+13.6
81.3
Offensive rating
99.8
103.0
Defensive rating
86.2
47.7%
Effective FG%
50.0%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
13.5%
Turnover %
10.2%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.37
31.7%
3-point %
32.5%
61.1%
Assist %
54.1%
14%
Form (last 7/10)
50%

Profile

Offence81.3 · 99.8Defence103.0 · 86.2Shooting47.7% · 50.0%3-point %31.7% · 32.5%Ball care13.5% · 10.2%Free throws0.36 · 0.37Form (last 7/10)14% · 50%
■ Montecatini   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Montecatini wins
0
Pistoia wins
No previous meetings.
Montecatinilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26ABasket Torino48-70
25/10/26HCento71-77
21/10/26AAvellino Basket74-85
17/10/26AFortitudo Bologna69-91
11/10/26HBrindisi78-96
04/10/26ASassari81-72
27/09/26HRimini59-84
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HFortitudo Bologna64-66
25/10/26AJuVi Cremona75-72
21/10/26ACento96-52
18/10/26HVigevano89-70
11/10/26ASebastiani Rieti70-78
04/10/26HBasket Torino77-84
27/09/26ALibertas Livorno62-63
13/05/26ARuvo Di Puglia80-78
10/05/26HRuvo Di Puglia81-88 OT
08/05/26HRuvo Di Puglia79-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Montecatini
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Losses (last 7)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL14%
HomeLLL0%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %14%0%25%
Points / game68.669.368.0
Allowed / game82.185.779.5
Point differential-13.6-16.3-11.5
Avg total150.7155.0147.5
Over 151.7557%33%75%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pistoia
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL43%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%33%50%
Points / game76.176.775.8
Allowed / game69.373.366.2
Point differential+6.9+3.3+9.5
Avg total145.4150.0142.0
Over 151.7529%67%0%
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno880100%81.668.2+13.4
2 Avellino Basket87188%80.973.4+7.5
3 Rimini86275%81.870.6+11.1
4 Fortitudo Bologna86275%79.674.2+5.4
5 Sebastiani Rieti86275%74.173.4+0.8
6 Basket Torino75271%72.471.4+1.0
7 Brindisi85362%77.073.4+3.6
8 Pesaro85362%80.277.9+2.4
9 Forli84450%82.578.5+4.0
10 Sassari84450%74.975.1-0.2
11 Mestre84450%74.575.9-1.4
12 Cividale84450%70.673.5-2.9
13 Pistoia73443%76.169.3+6.9
14 Caserta72529%79.383.3-4.0
15 Ruvo Di Puglia82625%76.182.5-6.4
16 Vigevano82625%76.584.4-7.9
17 Cento82625%72.282.6-10.4
18 Montecatini71614%68.682.1-13.6
19 JuVi Cremona81712%74.978.0-3.1
20 Urania Milano81712%74.581.9-7.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Montecatini1822161571
Pistoia1412312986
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