PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's hosts Lehigh on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Mount St. Mary's as the favourite, assigning it an 80% chance to win versus 20% for Lehigh, a reflection of their 1-1 season record, 60.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, compared with Lehigh's 1-2 record, 64.3 points per game and 73.7 allowed. Mount St. Mary's have won their sole home game 68-57 against Loyola Maryland, while Lehigh's only road outing ended in a 67-92 loss to St. Louis Billikens. The last five games for each side show identical 2-3 records, with Mount St. Mary's recent win over Loyola Maryland and Lehigh's victory over Cornell. The projected score is 76-66 in favour of Mount St. Mary's, with a projected total of 142.2 points, and the model gives a 4% chance of overtime. The home team line is not listed, so no cover probability is provided. The game ends with Mount St. Mary's securing a win, as the model's 80% probability suggests.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 60.0 | 77.0 | 137.0 | -17.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 68.0 | 57.0 | 125.0 | +11.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 52.0 | 97.0 | 149.0 | -45.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 67.8 | 66.9 | 134.7 | +0.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 63.2 | 68.2 | 131.4 | -5.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 63.3 | 73.8 | 137.1 | -10.5 | 29% |
| vs Similar (8) | 72.2 | 74.4 | 146.6 | -2.1 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 73.6 | 61.1 | 134.8 | +12.5 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 64.3 | 73.7 | 138.0 | -9.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 63.0 | 64.5 | 127.5 | -1.5 | 50% |
| Season away (1) | 67.0 | 92.0 | 159.0 | -25.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.4 | 70.2 | 140.6 | +0.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.4 | 69.6 | 134.0 | -5.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 69.9 | 75.7 | 145.6 | -5.9 | 43% |
| vs Similar (14) | 75.6 | 74.4 | 150.1 | +1.2 | 71% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 71.1 | 72.9 | 144.0 | -1.8 | 38% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.6 | 34.2 | 65.8 | -2.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 33.2 | 33.2 | 66.5 | +0.0 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 30.4 | 34.9 | 65.2 | -4.5 | 41% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.5 | 31.3 | 60.8 | -1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 27.4 | 32.8 | 60.2 | -5.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 29.9 | 35.2 | 65.1 | -5.3 | 43% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 35.4 | 36.1 | 71.5 | -0.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | 30.8 | 30.4 | 61.1 | +0.4 | 25% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.5 | 32.8 | 67.3 | +1.6 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.6 | 31.5 | 67.1 | +4.2 | 71% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 32.9 | 34.6 | 67.5 | -1.7 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.8 | 31.8 | 65.6 | +2.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 32.8 | 65.8 | +0.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 31.6 | 32.9 | 64.4 | -1.3 | 43% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 34.9 | 33.0 | 67.9 | +1.9 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 34.4 | 32.2 | 66.6 | +2.1 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Loyola Maryland | 68-57 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Xavier | 52-97 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Siena | 58-63 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Fairfield | 69-47 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Sacred Heart | 69-77 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Canisius | 68-47 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Niagara | 76-63 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Rider | 65-55 |
| 08/02/26 | A | Iona | 83-76 |
| 06/02/26 | H | Merrimack Warriors | 70-87 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Brown | 55-65 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Cornell | 71-64 |
| 03/11/26 | A | St. Louis Billikens | 67-92 |
| 18/03/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 55-67 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Boston University | 74-60 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Colgate | 76-69 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Holy Cross | 69-66 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Bucknell | 89-79 |
| 26/02/26 | A | American University | 78-73 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Boston University | 70-67 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 60.0 | 68.0 | 52.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.0 | 57.0 | 97.0 |
| Point differential | -17.0 | +11.0 | -45.0 |
| Avg total | 137.0 | 125.0 | 149.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 64.3 | 63.0 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 73.7 | 64.5 | 92.0 |
| Point differential | -9.3 | -1.5 | -25.0 |
| Avg total | 138.0 | 127.5 | 159.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sacred Heart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.0 | 64.7 | +23.3 |
| 2 |  Siena | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 79.0 | +6.3 |
| 3 |  Merrimack Warriors | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 65.7 | 60.0 | +5.7 |
| 4 |  Quinnipiac | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 68.0 | 76.0 | -8.0 |
| 5 |  Iona | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 66.2 | 71.5 | -5.2 |
| 6 | Mount St. Mary's | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 60.0 | 77.0 | -17.0 |
| 7 |  Marist | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 70.7 | -0.3 |
| 8 |  Canisius | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 81.7 | -7.3 |
| 9 |  Manhattan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.0 | -8.7 |
| 10 |  Fairfield | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 75.7 | -16.7 |
| 11 |  Rider | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.5 | 72.2 | -7.8 |
| 12 |  St. Peters | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 47.5 | 63.8 | -16.2 |
| 13 |  Niagara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 56.5 | 82.0 | -25.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Navy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 72.0 | 68.2 | +3.8 |
| 2 |  Boston University | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.3 | 74.7 | -1.3 |
| 3 |  Lafayette | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.8 | 64.4 | +15.4 |
| 4 |  Army | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 74.3 | 62.7 | +11.7 |
| 5 |  Loyola Maryland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 70.7 | +3.0 |
| 6 | Lehigh | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 73.7 | -9.3 |
| 7 |  American University | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.0 | 75.0 | -11.0 |
| 8 |  Colgate | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 69.7 | 85.7 | -16.0 |
| 9 |  Bucknell | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 63.3 | 91.0 | -27.7 |
| 10 |  Holy Cross | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 64.0 | 92.7 | -28.7 |
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