Xavier hosts Mount St. Mary's on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model favouring Xavier at 60% to 40%. The projected score is 76-73, giving a total of 149.6 points, which falls short of the 155.5-point line and yields a 35% chance of the over; an overtime is unlikely at only 5%. In recent form Xavier lost to Uconn 68-93 away on 12 March 2026, beat Marquette 89-87 away on 11 March 2026, and lost to Villanova 78-91 away on 7 March 2026, while Mount St. Mary's lost to Siena 58-63 away on 7 March 2026, beat Fairfield 69-47 away on 1 March 2026, and lost to Sacred Heart 69-77 away on 27 February 2026. The matchup sees Xavier as the Pythia favourite, and the model projects a modest edge for the home team, with a 60% probability of winning and a 40% probability for the visitors, while the over-line remains a 35% prospect. The game will hinge on whether Xavier can convert its recent narrow victory over Marquette into a decisive advantage.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Xavier winWon
60.1%fair 1.66
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge-34.4pp
Mount St. Mary's winLost
39.9%fair 2.51
Best odds34.00
Implied5.5%
Edge+34.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Xavier total 91.5 · main lineActual: Xavier over 91.5
Over 91.5
6.8%
@ 1.91-43.2pp
Under 91.5
93.2%
@ 1.86+43.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Xavier total 95.5Actual: Xavier over 95.5
Over 95.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
Under 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Mount St. Mary's total 61Actual: Mount St. Mary's under 61
Over 61
89.2%
Under 61
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mount St. Mary's total 65 · main lineActual: Mount St. Mary's under 65
Over 65
79.8%
@ 1.85+29.8pp
Under 65
20.2%
@ 1.85-29.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Mount St. Mary's total 69Actual: Mount St. Mary's under 69
Over 69
66.6%
Under 69
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Xavier -28.5Actual: Xavier -28.5
XAVI -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
MOUN +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.00
MOUN
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
Spread Xavier -25.5 · main lineActual: Xavier -25.5
XAVI -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
MOUN +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.75
Bet365
1.74
MOUN
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Spread Xavier -22.5Actual: Xavier -22.5
XAVI -22.5
4.9%
@ 1.52-56.3pp
MOUN +22.5
95.1%
@ 2.40+56.3pp
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
MOUN
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
XavierMount St. Mary's
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mount St. Mary's +16.5
88.1%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+67.6pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +11.5
77.5%
8.50
Bet365
8.50
-
-
-
-
+66.5pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +19
92.1%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+64.9pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +18.5
91.0%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+64.8pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +17.5
89.6%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+64.1pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +18
90.9%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+64.0pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +20
93.2%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+63.2pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +19.5
92.2%
3.10
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+62.4pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +21
94.2%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+61.2pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +20.5
93.3%
2.81
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.77
-
-
-
+60.5pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +21.5
94.3%
2.58
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+58.5pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +22
95.0%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+58.5pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +22.5
95.1%
2.38
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+56.3pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +23
95.8%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+56.2pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +23.5
95.8%
2.22
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
+54.3pp
Lost
Xavier under 84.5
79.1%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+53.6pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +24
96.4%
2.15
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
-
+53.4pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +24.5
96.4%
2.08
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+52.0pp
Lost
Xavier under 82.5
73.1%
4.40
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
-
+51.9pp
Lost
Xavier under 86.5
84.2%
2.80
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
+51.6pp
Lost
Xavier under 83.5
76.2%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+51.5pp
Lost
Xavier under 85.5
81.8%
3.05
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
-
+51.3pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's +25
96.9%
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
-
+50.8pp
Lost
Xavier under 87.5
86.5%
2.52
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
+50.1pp
Lost
Xavier under 88.5
88.5%
2.33
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+49.2pp
Lost
Xavier under 89.5
90.2%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+47.0pp
Lost
Xavier under 90.5
91.8%
1.92
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+43.7pp
Lost
Xavier under 91.5
93.2%
1.84
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+43.2pp
Lost
Xavier under 91
93.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+43.1pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 67.5
71.2%
2.38
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 66.5
74.5%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+30.5pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 64.5
80.3%
1.82
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 65
79.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 63.5
82.9%
1.71
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+29.3pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 65.5
77.5%
1.90
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+28.9pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 62.5
85.3%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 61.5
87.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 60.5
89.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 59.5
91.1%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Mount St. Mary's over 58.5
92.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Under 158.5
71.0%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Under 158
70.4%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Under 159
72.5%
1.63
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.0%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's over 57.5
93.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Under 160
74.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 160.5
74.9%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 161
76.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's over 56.5
94.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Lost
Under 161.5
76.8%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 162
78.2%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Under 162.5
78.5%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Under 163
79.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.2%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Under 164
81.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
81.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's over 55.5
95.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Lost
Under 166.5
84.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 165.5
83.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
89.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 176.5
94.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 175.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 130.5
87.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
78.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's under 82.5
81.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.5pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's under 81.5
78.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.1pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's under 80.5
75.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.6pp
Won
Mount St. Mary's under 79.5
72.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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