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Murray State vs Bellarmine Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 81-68
47-34 34-34
Position#102
Record6-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game88.8
Allowed / game77.3
vs
Position#279
Record4-4
FormLLWWW
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game78.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Murray State v Bellarmine
06 Dec 2025
MURR81
BELL68
13 Nov 2021
MURR78
BELL59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bellarmine winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
L
62-70
62
70
-8
A08/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
108-60
108
60
+48
H08/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
91-102
91
102
-11
A12/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
99-79
99
79
+20
H15/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
89-68
89
68
+21
H19/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
87-90
87
90
-3
A24/11
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
60-73
60
73
-13
A25/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
96-95
96
95
+1
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
84-52
84
52
+32
H03/12
NCAA
1H
2H
28-27
34-43
34-31
51-46
47-23
61-37
42-49
49-53
48-39
51-40
43-23
46-45
40-43
47-47
17-40
43-33
45-43
51-52
33-28
51-24
162.7Avg total
86.1Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)88.877.3166.1+11.467%
Season at home (6)93.571.8165.3+21.7100%
Season away (3)79.388.3167.7-9.00%
Last 10 (10)86.176.6162.7+9.560%
Last 5 (5)83.275.6158.8+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)67.673.0140.6-5.429%
vs Similar (15)75.673.2148.8+2.453%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)79.567.4146.9+12.175%
This opponent (Bellarmine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BellarmineUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stetson
#341
L
67-69
67
69
-2
A25/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#153
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A27/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
59-104
59
104
-45
A04/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
71-98
71
98
-27
A09/11
NCAA
Hanover
#540
W
94-55
94
55
+39
H13/11
NCAA
Wofford
#126
L
86-94
86
94
-8
H15/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
79-86
79
86
-7
A20/11
NCAA
Citadel
#302
W
70-58
70
58
+12
A25/11
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
74-69
74
69
+5
H26/11
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
99-60
99
60
+39
H04/12
NCAA
1H
2H
32-31
35-38
34-40
27-40
29-49
30-55
30-46
41-52
41-25
53-30
38-51
48-43
30-37
49-49
35-31
35-27
35-38
39-31
45-30
54-30
153.3Avg total
76.0Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)79.078.0157.0+1.050%
Season at home (4)88.269.5157.8+18.875%
Season away (4)69.886.5156.2-16.825%
Last 10 (10)76.077.3153.3-1.340%
Last 5 (5)81.673.4155.0+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)71.683.2154.8-11.512%
vs Similar (10)71.979.9151.8-8.020%
vs Weaker (2)96.563.0159.5+33.5100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: -2.9-2.92nd half2nd half: +6.4+6.42nd half: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: -2.9-2.92nd half2nd half: +6.4+6.42nd half: +1.6+1.6
Murray StateBellarmine
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
47-23
47
23
+24
H08/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A12/11
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H15/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H19/11
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/11
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
17-40
17
40
-23
A25/11
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H26/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H03/12
NCAA
72.3Avg total
37.7Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.033.266.2-0.157%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.132.667.8+2.559%-
Last 30 away (13)30.333.864.2-3.554%-
Last 10 (10)37.734.672.3+3.170%-
Last 5 (5)35.635.471.0+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)29.735.064.7-5.343%-
vs Similar (15)33.334.567.7-1.247%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)35.529.164.6+6.488%-
This opponent (Bellarmine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BellarmineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stetson
#341
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A25/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#153
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A27/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
29-49
29
49
-20
A04/11
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A09/11
NCAA
Hanover
#540
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H13/11
NCAA
Wofford
#126
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H15/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
30-37
30
37
-7
A20/11
NCAA
Citadel
#302
W
35-31
35
31
+4
A25/11
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H26/11
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H04/12
NCAA
72.7Avg total
34.9Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.338.072.3-3.730%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.236.373.5+0.940%-
Last 30 away (15)31.439.771.1-8.320%-
Last 10 (10)34.937.872.7-2.940%-
Last 5 (5)36.637.474.0-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)33.839.172.9-5.212%-
vs Similar (10)33.239.272.4-6.040%-
vs Weaker (2)40.529.570.0+11.0100%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Murray State wins
1
Bellarmine wins
DateGameScore
10/12/22Bellarmine v Murray State69-58
14/11/21Murray State v Bellarmine78-59
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/25HMorehead State84-52
26/11/25HGeorge Washington96-95
25/11/25AMcNeese State60-73
24/11/25AMiddle Tenn. St.87-90
19/11/25HUALR89-68
15/11/25HNicholls State99-79
12/11/25ASMU Mustangs91-102
08/11/25HMiss. Valley St.108-60
03/11/25HNebraska O.85-77
08/03/25ABradley62-70
Bellarminelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25HMidway99-60
26/11/25HHouston Christian74-69
25/11/25ACitadel70-58
20/11/25ANotre Dame79-86
15/11/25HWofford86-94
13/11/25HHanover94-55
09/11/25AKansas State71-98
04/11/25AGeorgia59-104
27/02/25AFlorida Gulf Coast61-80
25/02/25AStetson67-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW67%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game88.893.579.3
Allowed / game77.371.888.3
Point differential+11.4+21.7-9.0
Avg total166.1165.3167.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bellarmine
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%75%25%
Points / game79.088.269.8
Allowed / game78.069.586.5
Point differential+1.0+18.8-16.8
Avg total157.0157.8156.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Northern Iowa87188%74.055.4+18.6
2 Belmont108280%82.470.4+12.0
3 Illinois State97278%80.067.3+12.7
4 Murray State96367%88.877.3+11.4
5 Valparaiso85362%70.469.0+1.4
6 Drake106460%79.665.4+14.2
7 Southern Illinois95456%80.073.4+6.6
8 Indiana State95456%75.870.7+5.1
9 Bradley95456%74.369.8+4.6
10 Illinois (Chi.)84450%78.672.4+6.2
11 Evansville94544%69.170.7-1.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
ASUN conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida Gulf Coast95456%86.982.8+4.1
2 Lipscomb95456%79.175.6+3.6
3 North Alabama95456%73.474.7-1.2
4 West Georgia95456%76.280.6-4.3
5 Austin Peay84450%79.669.2+10.4
6 Bellarmine84450%79.078.0+1.0
7 Central Arkansas94544%74.273.3+0.9
8 Queens Royals94544%83.783.8-0.1
9 Stetson113827%67.778.7-11.0
10 North Florida82625%83.684.0-0.4
11 Eastern Kentucky81712%81.285.1-3.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State473481
Bellarmine343468
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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