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Nancy vs Parnu Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Projected 87-69
Projected total 155.9
Scheduled
Position#4
Record5-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game87.2
Allowed / game72.5
Nancy
Vs
92%
■ NAC 92%■ PAR 8%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Parnu
Position#39
Record2-6
FormLWLWL
Points / game71.4
Allowed / game79.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Palais des Sports Jean-Weille
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Nancy will host Parnu in the FIBA Europe Cup on 17 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Nancy the clear favourite with a 92% chance of victory, reflecting their 5-1 season record, 87.2 points scored and 72.5 allowed per game, and fourth place in the league, while Parnu sits 39th with a 2-6 record, 71.4 points scored and 79.0 allowed. Nancy's home form is flawless, 3-0 at home, averaging 83.7 points and 66.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 101-86 win over Vienna Basket away on 11 November, a 77-79 loss to Limoges at home on 7 November, and an 86-73 win over Keravnos at home on 3 November; Parnu has gone 0-3 on the road, 72.3 points scored and 83.3 allowed, and won two of their last five, with a 89-80 win over Ventspils at home on 7 November and a 65-86 loss to Keravnos at home on 12 November. In their only previous encounter Nancy defeated Parnu 84-61 on 13 October 2026. The Pythia projection puts Nancy 87-69, a total of 155.9 points, and assigns an 8% probability that Parnu will win; the model also gives Nancy a 92% chance to cover the home line, with an over probability of 2% for the total. Nancy's recent dominance and Parnu's road struggles make this a one-sided affair, with Nancy's 87-point output likely the final score.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nancy win
92.1%fair 1.09
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Parnu win
7.9%fair 12.65
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NancyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNancy
Date
Competition
Chalon/Saone
#6
L
67-108
67
108
-41
64avg 78
A10/10
LNB
Parnu
#39
W
84-61
84
61
+23
76avg 78
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Nanterre
#5
W
80-65
80
65
+15
72avg 78
H17/10
LNB
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
99-60
99
60
+39
97avg 78
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
L
74-78
74
78
-4
69avg 78
A25/10
LNB
Szczecin
#16
L
87-90
87
90
-3
74avg 78
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dijon
#2
W
108-94
108
94
+14
101avg 78
A30/10
LNB
Keravnos
#18
W
86-73
86
73
+13
no box
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Limoges
#11
L
77-79
77
79
-2
no box
H07/11
LNB
Vienna Basket
#32
W
101-86
101
86
+15
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
18-29
10-23
15-28
28-18
15-13
12-10
29-20
19-20
27-18
19-16
15-11
28-16
18-11
29-13
24-20
24-18
16-25
17-15
17-20
21-22
25-28
21-18
20-22
25-30
21-17
27-21
35-26
20-17
22-21
23-18
21-17
16-15
19-25
28-15
14-24
25-22
25-25
30-19
21-20
165.7Avg total
86.3Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.272.5159.7+14.783%
Season at home (3)83.766.0149.7+17.7100%
Season away (3)90.779.0169.7+11.767%
Last 10 (10)86.379.4165.7+6.960%
Last 5 (5)91.884.4176.2+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.389.5169.8-9.223%
vs Similar (9)85.683.0168.6+2.656%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)88.272.2160.5+16.075%
This opponent (Parnu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ParnuLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormParnu
Date
Competition
Keila KK
#9
L
70-75
70
75
-5
60avg 70
H10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Nancy
#4
L
61-84
61
84
-23
54avg 70
H13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#2
L
72-89
72
89
-17
63avg 70
A17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Vienna Basket
#32
W
86-69
86
69
+17
80avg 70
H22/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
91-77
91
77
+14
92avg 70
H25/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
L
80-82
80
82
-2
74avg 70
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
W
76-74
76
74
+2
73avg 70
H01/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Szczecin
#16
L
69-82
69
82
-13
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Ventspils
#4
W
89-80
89
80
+9
no box
H07/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Keravnos
#18
L
65-86
65
86
-21
no box
H12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
12-19
11-20
23-15
18-28
13-15
10-12
20-29
19-17
15-19
17-29
21-24
14-21
24-16
24-17
24-15
24-25
19-16
29-14
19-22
12-32
20-13
26-20
22-17
13-16
24-23
22-22
17-13
21-18
14-14
17-30
17-20
23-17
22-22
20-21
24-20
21-17
20-22
11-15
13-32
155.7Avg total
75.9Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)71.479.0150.4-7.625%
Season at home (5)70.876.4147.2-5.640%
Season away (3)72.383.3155.7-11.00%
Last 10 (10)75.979.8155.7-3.940%
Last 5 (5)75.880.8156.6-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)72.884.2157.0-11.413%
vs Similar (8)79.275.6154.9+3.650%
vs Weaker (7)84.675.0159.6+9.686%
This opponent (Nancy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1151%1202%1254%1306%1359%14010%14512%15012%15511%16010%1658%1705%1753%1802%1851%1901%195
1%1152%1256%13510%14512%15510%1655%1752%1851%195
Pythia expects about 156 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 155-159 (12%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
39.3%
Under 160
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
27.7%
Under 165
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
18.2%
Under 170
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Nancy total 80.5
Over 80.5
74.3%
Under 80.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy total 84.5
Over 84.5
60.6%
Under 84.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy total 88.5
Over 88.5
45.5%
Under 88.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parnu total 76.5
Over 76.5
21.9%
Under 76.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parnu total 80.5
Over 80.5
12.5%
Under 80.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parnu total 84.5
Over 84.5
6.5%
Under 84.5
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-151%-121%-92%-63%-32%+05%+36%+67%+98%+129%+1510%+189%+218%+247%+276%+304%+333%+362%+392%+421%+451%+480%+51
1%-122%-62%+06%+68%+1210%+188%+246%+303%+362%+421%+48
Margin from Nancy's side (positive = Nancy win). Pythia's expected margin is +18.7; Nancy win by 1+ in 90% of simulations.
Spread Nancy -3
NAC -3
89.5%
PAR +3
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
PAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Nancy 0
NAC 0
92.1%
PAR 0
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
PAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Nancy +3
NAC +3
94.5%
PAR -3
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
NAC
No market prices yet.
PAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -0.7-0.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -0.7-0.7
NancyParnu
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NancyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chalon/Saone
#6
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A10/10
LNB
Parnu
#39
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Nanterre
#5
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H17/10
LNB
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#4
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A25/10
LNB
Szczecin
#16
L
46-50
46
50
-4
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dijon
#2
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A30/10
LNB
Keravnos
#18
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Limoges
#11
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H07/11
LNB
Vienna Basket
#32
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
85.4Avg total
43.6Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.341.484.7+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.038.183.1+6.969%-
Last 30 away (14)41.445.186.5-3.636%-
Last 10 (10)43.641.885.4+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)43.844.488.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)41.143.284.2-2.131%-
vs Similar (9)44.241.886.0+2.467%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)46.038.084.0+8.075%-
This opponent (Parnu) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ParnuLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keila KK
#9
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Nancy
#4
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H13/10
FIBA Europe Cup
VEF Riga
#2
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A17/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Vienna Basket
#32
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H22/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H25/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Valmiera Glass Via
#3
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H01/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Szczecin
#16
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Ventspils
#4
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H07/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Keravnos
#18
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
76.3Avg total
37.2Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.139.978.0-1.750%-
Last 30 at home (19)39.438.978.3+0.568%-
Last 30 away (11)35.941.577.5-5.618%-
Last 10 (10)37.239.176.3-1.950%-
Last 5 (5)38.038.876.8-0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)36.339.976.2-3.733%-
vs Similar (8)37.440.077.4-2.650%-
vs Weaker (7)43.039.682.6+3.486%-
This opponent (Nancy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nancytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nancy: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.018.8
49.5%
53.4%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.79.0
36.4%
32.5%27.0
🏀 Free throws22.417.0
75.9%
72.8%17.0
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Parnutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Parnu: 75.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.121.8
50.6%
53.4%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.47.3
27.7%
32.5%21.9
🏀 Free throws15.110.2
67.5%
72.8%10.2
They take 69.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nancy
WLWWLLWWWL
Parnu
LWLWLWWLLL
#4
League position
#39
+4.6
Net rating
-2.4
93.6
Offensive rating
86.7
89.0
Defensive rating
89.1
51.5%
Effective FG%
47.1%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
16.3%
Turnover %
15.2%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.22
36.4%
3-point %
27.7%
55.4%
Assist %
70.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence93.6 · 86.7Defence89.0 · 89.1Shooting51.5% · 47.1%3-point %36.4% · 27.7%Ball care16.3% · 15.2%Free throws0.36 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Nancy   ■ Parnu
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nancy wins
0
Parnu wins
DateGameScore
13/10/26Parnu v Nancy61-84
Nancylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AVienna Basket101-86
07/11/26HLimoges77-79
03/11/26HKeravnos86-73
30/10/26ADijon108-94
28/10/26ASzczecin87-90
25/10/26ALyon-Villeurbanne74-78
20/10/26HNitra Blue Wings99-60
17/10/26HNanterre80-65
13/10/26AParnu84-61
10/10/26AChalon/Saone67-108
Parnulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HKeravnos65-86
07/11/26HVentspils89-80
04/11/26HSzczecin69-82
01/11/26HValmiera Glass Via76-74
28/10/26ANitra Blue Wings80-82
25/10/26HLatvijas Universitate91-77
22/10/26HVienna Basket86-69
17/10/26AVEF Riga72-89
13/10/26HNancy61-84
10/10/26HKeila KK70-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nancy
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game87.283.790.7
Allowed / game72.566.079.0
Point differential+14.7+17.7+11.7
Avg total159.7149.7169.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Parnu
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL25%
HomeWLWLL40%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %25%40%0%
Points / game71.470.872.3
Allowed / game79.076.483.3
Point differential-7.6-5.6-11.0
Avg total150.4147.2155.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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