Parnu vs Ventspils Result & Analysis

Parnu and Ventspils will clash in the Latvia-Estonian League on 7 November 2026, a game where the balance is razor-thin as the model gives Ventspils a 54% chance of victory to Parnu's 46%, yet the spread of -1.5 and a 43% chance of the home side covering suggest a close contest. Parnu enters the match with a 3-3 record, averaging 77.2 points and conceding 77.8, while Ventspils sits at 6-2, 87.0 points for and 81.1 against, a stark difference that reflects Ventspils' stronger overall scoring. At home, Parnu has won 3 of 4, 78.2 points for and 74.8 against, but their last five include a 69-82 loss to Szczecin, a 76-74 win over Valmiera Glass Via, and an 80-82 defeat to Nitra Blue Wings. Ventspils, on the road, has won 4 of 5, 89.4 points for and 83.8 against, with recent wins over Viimsi and BK Ogre and a narrow 82-85 loss to Tal Tech. Historically, Ventspils leads the series 7-3 and last met Parnu on 27 January 2026, winning 80-71. The model projects a final score of 79-81, a total of 160.0 points, and a 49% chance of the over, with a 5% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Parnu winWon

45.2%fair 2.21

Best odds1.80

Implied52.8%

Edge-7.6pp

Ventspils winLost

54.8%fair 1.82

Best odds2.05

Implied47.2%

Edge+7.6pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ParnuLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormParnu

Date

Competition

BC Kalev/Cramo

78-79

-1

63avg 70

A03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keravnos

#20

70-88

-18

68avg 70

A07/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Keila KK

#11

70-75

-5

60avg 70

H10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Nancy

61-84

-23

54avg 70

H13/10

FIBA Europe Cup

VEF Riga

72-89

-17

63avg 70

A17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Vienna Basket

#31

86-69

+17

80avg 70

H22/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Latvijas Universitate

#14

91-77

+14

92avg 70

H25/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Nitra Blue Wings

#42

80-82

-2

74avg 70

A28/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Valmiera Glass Via

76-74

73avg 70

H01/11

Latvia-Estonian League

Szczecin

69-82

-13

no box

H04/11

FIBA Europe Cup

21-17

17-27

19-19

21-16

11-26

19-19

18-25

22-18

24-21

12-19

11-20

23-15

18-28

13-15

10-12

20-29

19-17

15-19

17-29

21-24

14-21

24-16

24-17

24-15

24-25

19-16

29-14

19-22

12-32

20-13

26-20

22-17

13-16

24-23

22-22

17-13

21-18

14-14

17-30

17-20

155.2Avg total

75.3Scored

79.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	77.2	77.8	155.0	-0.7	50%
Season at home (4)	78.2	74.8	153.0	+3.5	75%
Season away (2)	75.0	84.0	159.0	-9.0	0%
Last 10 (10)	75.3	79.9	155.2	-4.6	30%
Last 5 (5)	80.4	76.8	157.2	+3.6	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	73.4	84.1	157.4	-10.7	14%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	77.5	73.8	151.3	+3.7	50%
vs Weaker (10)	82.9	74.3	157.2	+8.6	80%

This opponent (Ventspils) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

VentspilsLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormVentspils

Date

Competition

VEF Riga

72-69

69avg 82

H22/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

71-90

-19

57avg 82

A24/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

76-98

-22

65avg 82

A25/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

108-92

108

+16

106avg 82

A28/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

92-85

87avg 82

H02/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

86-73

+13

83avg 82

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

85-68

+17

78avg 82

A11/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

82-85

-3

78avg 82

H16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BK Ogre

92-88

83avg 82

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

75-60

+15

65avg 82

H30/10

Latvia-Estonian League

23-18

11-24

23-15

15-12

23-29

27-19

5-19

16-23

20-29

21-23

19-24

16-22

27-24

26-19

34-22

21-27

25-23

27-32

20-13

20-17

14-24

26-18

24-18

22-13

28-13

15-16

27-21

15-18

17-17

22-16

17-28

26-24

23-29

29-22

23-19

17-18

20-12

21-14

15-13

19-21

164.7Avg total

83.9Scored

80.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (8)	87.0	81.1	168.1	+5.9	75%
Season at home (3)	83.0	76.7	159.7	+6.3	67%
Season away (5)	89.4	83.8	173.2	+5.6	80%
Last 10 (10)	83.9	80.8	164.7	+3.1	70%
Last 5 (5)	84.0	74.8	158.8	+9.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	76.7	89.8	166.4	-13.1	22%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	91.8	80.4	172.2	+11.4	80%
vs Weaker (15)	90.1	80.2	170.3	+9.9	80%

This opponent (Parnu) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 156Actual: Over 156

Over 156

59.5%

Under 156

40.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 161.25 · main lineActual: Over 161.25

Over 161.25

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under 161.25

no forecast

@ 1.82

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.80

Under

1xBet

1.82

Over/Under 166Actual: Over 166

Over 166

35.3%

Under 166

64.7%

@ 1.53

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

Marathon Be

1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Parnu total 76.5Actual: Parnu over 76.5

Over 76.5

60.8%

@ 1.40-4.6pp

Under 76.5

39.2%

@ 2.67+4.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.35

Under

Betano

2.67

1xBet

2.51

Parnu total 80.5 · main lineActual: Parnu over 80.5

Over 80.5

45.5%

@ 1.85-6.2pp

Under 80.5

54.5%

@ 1.91+6.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

WilliamHill

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.76

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.66

Under

Betano

1.91

Marathon Be

1.88

WilliamHill

1.85

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.79

Parnu total 84.5Actual: Parnu over 84.5

Over 84.5

30.9%

@ 2.45-7.1pp

Under 84.5

69.1%

@ 1.47+7.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.26

Under

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.42

Ventspils total 75.5Actual: Ventspils over 75.5

Over 75.5

69.5%

@ 1.42+3.8pp

Under 75.5

30.5%

@ 2.70-3.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.34

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.59

Ventspils total 79.5 · main lineActual: Ventspils over 79.5

Over 79.5

54.7%

@ 1.83+3.3pp

Under 79.5

45.3%

@ 1.91-3.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.81

WilliamHill

1.80

BetVictor

1.80

Betano

1.78

Under

WilliamHill

1.91

BetVictor

1.91

Betano

1.90

Marathon Be

1.85

1xBet

1.83

Ventspils total 83.5Actual: Ventspils under 83.5

Over 83.5

39.4%

@ 2.50+1.9pp

Under 83.5

60.6%

@ 1.50-1.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.50

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.20

Under

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Parnu -4.5Actual: Parnu -4.5

PAR -4.5

31.5%

@ 2.32-10.9pp

VET +4.5

68.5%

@ 1.61+10.9pp

Best 5 market prices

PAR

1xBet

2.32

Betano

2.30

Bet365

2.20

Pinnacle

2.18

VET

Pinnacle

1.61

Bet365

1.60

Betano

1.53

Marathon Be

1.48

1xBet

1.43

Spread Parnu -1.5 · main lineActual: Parnu -1.5

PAR -1.5

42.4%

@ 1.91-8.1pp

VET +1.5

57.6%

@ 1.88+8.1pp

Best 5 market prices

PAR

Betfair

1.91

Marathon Be

1.88

Pinnacle

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.83

VET

Pinnacle

1.88

Bet365

1.86

Betano

1.85

BetVictor

1.83

Betfair

1.80

Spread Parnu +1.5Actual: Parnu +1.5

PAR +1.5

48.0%

@ 1.66-8.0pp

VET -1.5

52.0%

@ 2.20+8.0pp

Best 5 market prices

PAR

Pinnacle

1.66

Marathon Be

1.63

Betano

1.62

Bet365

1.60

1xBet

1.53

VET

Bet365

2.20

Betano

2.12

Pinnacle

2.12

1xBet

2.09

Marathon Be

2.03

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

ParnuVentspils

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	19.4	19.7	39.2	-0.3	53%	30%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.1	19.1	39.2	+1.1	50%	33%
Last 30 away (12)	18.4	20.8	39.2	-2.3	58%	25%
Last 10 (10)	17.7	22.1	39.8	-4.4	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	16.8	22.4	39.2	-5.6	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	18.4	20.7	39.1	-2.3	43%	29%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	17.2	18.5	35.7	-1.3	33%	0%
vs Weaker (10)	22.2	19.1	41.3	+3.1	80%	50%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	23.7	21.9	45.6	+1.8	57%	70%
Last 30 at home (14)	23.9	21.9	45.8	+1.9	57%	79%
Last 30 away (16)	23.6	21.9	45.5	+1.8	56%	62%
Last 10 (10)	22.0	21.8	43.8	+0.2	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	19.0	39.4	+1.4	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	22.2	24.3	46.6	-2.1	33%	78%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	23.6	24.0	47.6	-0.4	60%	80%
vs Weaker (15)	24.1	20.4	44.5	+3.7	67%	60%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.25
Last 30 (30)	18.7	20.0	38.7	-1.2	40%	57%
Last 30 at home (18)	19.0	19.9	38.9	-0.9	44%	61%
Last 30 away (12)	18.3	20.0	38.3	-1.7	33%	50%
Last 10 (10)	17.7	18.1	35.8	-0.4	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	16.4	36.6	+3.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	17.5	19.3	36.8	-1.8	29%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	19.8	20.8	40.7	-1.0	50%	67%
vs Weaker (10)	19.8	20.4	40.2	-0.6	50%	60%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 39.25
Last 30 (30)	22.0	19.9	41.9	+2.2	67%	57%
Last 30 at home (14)	19.9	19.1	39.1	+0.8	64%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	23.9	20.5	44.4	+3.4	69%	75%
Last 10 (10)	22.5	20.3	42.8	+2.2	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.6	17.2	39.8	+5.4	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	18.7	21.7	40.3	-3.0	33%	44%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	25.6	22.4	48.0	+3.2	80%	100%
vs Weaker (15)	21.9	18.1	40.0	+3.9	80%	47%

ParnuLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

BC Kalev/Cramo

38-44

-6

A03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keravnos

#20

30-45

-15

A07/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Keila KK

#11

36-40

-4

H10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Nancy

31-43

-12

H13/10

FIBA Europe Cup

VEF Riga

34-36

-2

A17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Vienna Basket

#31

38-37

H22/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Latvijas Universitate

#14

43-41

H25/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Nitra Blue Wings

#42

32-45

-13

A28/10

FIBA Europe Cup

Valmiera Glass Via

37-39

-2

H01/11

Latvia-Estonian League

Szczecin

35-32

H04/11

FIBA Europe Cup

75.6Avg total

35.4Scored

40.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80.25
Last 30 (30)	38.2	39.7	77.9	-1.5	47%	23%
Last 30 at home (18)	39.1	39.0	78.1	+0.1	61%	28%
Last 30 away (12)	36.8	40.8	77.5	-4.0	25%	17%
Last 10 (10)	35.4	40.2	75.6	-4.8	30%	20%
Last 5 (5)	37.0	38.8	75.8	-1.8	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	35.9	40.0	75.9	-4.1	29%	14%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	37.0	39.3	76.3	-2.3	50%	17%
vs Weaker (10)	42.0	39.5	81.5	+2.5	70%	40%

This opponent (Ventspils) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

VentspilsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

VEF Riga

34-42

-8

H22/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

50-48

A24/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

41-52

-11

A25/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

53-43

+10

A28/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

52-55

-3

H02/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

40-42

-2

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

43-29

+14

A11/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

39-33

H16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BK Ogre

52-51

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

41-26

+15

H30/10

Latvia-Estonian League

86.6Avg total

44.5Scored

42.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 80.25
Last 30 (30)	45.8	41.8	87.5	+4.0	63%	67%
Last 30 at home (14)	43.8	41.1	84.9	+2.7	50%	57%
Last 30 away (16)	47.5	42.4	89.9	+5.1	75%	75%
Last 10 (10)	44.5	42.1	86.6	+2.4	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	43.0	36.2	79.2	+6.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	40.9	46.0	86.9	-5.1	22%	56%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	49.2	46.4	95.6	+2.8	60%	100%
vs Weaker (15)	46.1	38.5	84.5	+7.6	87%	60%

This opponent (Parnu) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Parnu win

PAR win

no forecast

@ 1.83

VET win

no forecast

@ 1.98

1st half Spread Parnu +0.5 · main lineActual: Parnu +0.5

PAR +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

VET -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 80.25 · main lineActual: Over 80.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

Parnu 1st half total 40 · main lineActual: Parnu over 40

Over

no forecast

@ 1.82

Under

no forecast

@ 1.84

Ventspils 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Ventspils under 39.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.86

Under

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half: PAR + total 79.5

PAR & over

no forecast

@ 3.65

PAR & under

no forecast

@ 3.65

1st half: Draw + total 79.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 26.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 26.00

1st half: VET + total 79.5

VET & over

no forecast

@ 3.80

VET & under

no forecast

@ 3.75

1st half Over/Under 79Actual: Over 79

Over

no forecast

@ 1.72

Under

no forecast

@ 2.03

1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.15

Under

no forecast

@ 1.75

1st half Spread Parnu -0.5Actual: Parnu -0.5

PAR -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.88

VET +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.91

1st half Spread Parnu +1.5Actual: Parnu +1.5

PAR +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

VET -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.25

1st half Over/Under 82.75Actual: Over 82.75

Over

no forecast

@ 1.90

Under

no forecast

@ 1.73

1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.62

Under

no forecast

@ 2.25

1st half Spread Parnu -1.5Actual: Parnu -1.5

PAR -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.02

VET +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Parnu (regulation)

PAR

no forecast

@ 1.86

Draw

no forecast

@ 19.00

VET

no forecast

@ 2.02

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	19.2	19.3	38.5	-0.1	47%	50%
Last 30 at home (18)	18.3	18.7	37.0	-0.4	44%	44%
Last 30 away (12)	20.6	20.1	40.7	+0.5	50%	58%
Last 10 (10)	19.3	20.8	40.1	-1.5	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	23.6	20.6	44.2	+3.0	60%	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	18.9	21.9	40.7	-3.0	21%	64%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	19.2	18.2	37.3	+1.0	67%	33%
vs Weaker (10)	19.7	16.3	36.0	+3.4	70%	40%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	20.6	21.1	41.6	-0.5	53%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	18.9	21.1	39.9	-2.2	43%	36%
Last 30 away (16)	22.1	21.1	43.1	+1.0	62%	69%
Last 10 (10)	20.7	19.2	39.9	+1.5	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	21.2	19.8	41.0	+1.4	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	16.2	20.9	37.1	-4.7	22%	33%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	21.4	18.0	39.4	+3.4	80%	60%
vs Weaker (15)	22.4	22.1	44.5	+0.3	60%	60%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	19.5	19.3	38.8	+0.2	40%	33%
Last 30 at home (18)	19.7	17.6	37.3	+2.2	44%	28%
Last 30 away (12)	19.2	21.9	41.2	-2.7	33%	42%
Last 10 (10)	20.6	18.9	39.5	+1.7	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	19.8	17.4	37.2	+2.4	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	17.6	21.1	38.7	-3.6	14%	36%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	21.3	16.3	37.7	+5.0	67%	17%
vs Weaker (10)	21.2	18.5	39.7	+2.7	60%	40%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40
Last 30 (30)	20.5	20.0	40.6	+0.5	43%	50%
Last 30 at home (14)	21.9	20.9	42.8	+1.1	50%	64%
Last 30 away (16)	19.3	19.3	38.6	+0.0	38%	38%
Last 10 (10)	18.7	19.5	38.2	-0.8	40%	20%
Last 5 (5)	19.8	18.8	38.6	+1.0	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	19.6	22.9	42.4	-3.3	22%	56%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	21.2	16.0	37.2	+5.2	60%	20%
vs Weaker (15)	21.6	19.7	41.3	+1.9	53%	60%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 79
Last 30 (30)	38.7	38.6	77.3	+0.2	47%	40%
Last 30 at home (18)	38.0	36.3	74.3	+1.7	50%	33%
Last 30 away (12)	39.8	42.0	81.8	-2.2	42%	50%
Last 10 (10)	39.9	39.7	79.6	+0.2	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	43.4	38.0	81.4	+5.4	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	36.4	43.0	79.4	-6.6	14%	43%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	40.5	34.5	75.0	+6.0	67%	33%
vs Weaker (10)	40.9	34.8	75.7	+6.1	80%	40%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 79
Last 30 (30)	41.1	41.1	82.2	+0.0	50%	53%
Last 30 at home (14)	40.8	41.9	82.7	-1.1	43%	50%
Last 30 away (16)	41.4	40.4	81.8	+1.0	56%	56%
Last 10 (10)	39.4	38.7	78.1	+0.7	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	41.0	38.6	79.6	+2.4	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	35.8	43.8	79.6	-8.0	22%	56%
vs Similar ◀ (5)	42.6	34.0	76.6	+8.6	80%	20%
vs Weaker (15)	44.0	41.7	85.7	+2.3	60%	60%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

PAR win + total 160.5

🔒 Pro

VET win + total 160.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: PAR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: VET leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (PAR:VET): PAR wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Ventspils +5	70.8%	1.56	Pinnacle 1.57	Marathon Bet 1.55	Bet365 1.55	-	-	+11.8pp	Lost
Ventspils +5.5	71.7%	1.48	Bet365 1.54	Pinnacle 1.53	Marathon Bet 1.52	Betano 1.45	1xBet 1.36	+11.2pp	Lost
Ventspils +9.5	82.6%	1.26	Betano 1.26	-	-	-	-	+9.6pp	Won
Ventspils +7.5	77.6%	1.33	Betano 1.33	-	-	-	-	+8.7pp	Lost
Ventspils +10.5	84.7%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Won
Ventspils +8.5	80.2%	1.28	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	-	+8.5pp	Lost
Parnu under 86.5	75.4%	1.31	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Lost
Ventspils +6.5	74.8%	1.35	Betano 1.38	Bet365 1.38	1xBet 1.30	-	-	+7.8pp	Lost
Ventspils +20.5	96.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Ventspils +15.5	92.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Parnu under 85.5	72.3%	1.38	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.39	1xBet 1.36	-	-	+6.6pp	Lost
Parnu under 91.5	87.7%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Won
Parnu under 90.5	85.7%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Ventspils over 68.5	88.3%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Parnu under 97.5	95.7%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Parnu under 87.5	78.3%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Lost
Parnu under 89.5	83.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Ventspils over 66.5	91.7%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Parnu under 95.5	93.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Ventspils over 71.5	81.6%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Ventspils over 70.5	84.0%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+5.2pp	Won
Parnu under 93.5	91.1%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Parnu +24.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Ventspils over 69.5	86.3%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Ventspils over 65.5	93.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+4.8pp	Won
Ventspils over 67.5	90.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Ventspils over 73.5	75.9%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Parnu +19.5	93.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Overtime: no	94.6%	1.04	WilliamHill 1.05	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	+4.3pp	-
Ventspils over 74.5	72.8%	1.28	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
Under 185.5	93.1%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Under 175.5	82.3%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Over 135.5	93.2%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Ventspils under 93.5	89.1%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Ventspils under 90.5	82.7%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Parnu +14.5	87.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Under 180.5	88.7%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+2.1pp	Won
Ventspils under 91.5	85.1%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
Under 170.5	73.8%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
Ventspils under 86.5	71.2%	1.28	1xBet 1.28	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
Ventspils under 89.5	80.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Over 140.5	88.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Won
Parnu over 69.5	83.0%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Won
Over 145.5	81.0%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+0.4pp	Won
Ventspils under 87.5	74.4%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Parnu over 68.5	85.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
Parnu +9.5	76.0%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
Parnu over 71.5	77.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
Over 150.5	71.5%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Won
Parnu over 70.5	80.5%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-1.0pp	Won
Parnu over 73.5	71.4%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	-1.4pp	Won
Parnu +7.5	70.1%	1.24	Betano 1.24	-	-	-	-	-4.0pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Parnutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Parnu: 75.7 points a game scored

🏀🏀58%

🏀🏀🏀29%

🏀13%

🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 58% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 29% of the points

🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 13% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.1	21.8	50.6%	52.5%	43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.4	7.3	27.7%	31.4%	21.9
🏀 Free throws	15.1	10.2	67.5%	68.3%	10.2

They take 69.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Ventspilstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ventspils: 83.6 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀34%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 34% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.2	19.2	53.0%	52.5%	38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.1	9.5	31.6%	31.4%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	22.8	16.7	73.2%	68.3%	16.7

They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.6	18.7	51.1%	52.5%	37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	9.4	37.0%	31.4%	28.2
🏀 Free throws	18.7	12.2	65.2%	68.3%	12.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.6	23.9	54.8%	52.5%	47.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	22.0	6.2	28.2%	31.4%	18.6
🏀 Free throws	22.0	14.2	64.5%	68.3%	14.2

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.8	20.5	50.3%	52.5%	41.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.5	8.3	30.2%	31.4%	24.9
🏀 Free throws	18.0	11.7	65.0%	68.3%	11.7

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.5	20.7	55.3%	52.5%	41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.3	9.6	29.7%	31.4%	28.8
🏀 Free throws	23.0	16.8	73.1%	68.3%	16.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	19.4	50.2%	52.5%	38.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	8.2	32.1%	31.4%	24.5
🏀 Free throws	21.5	15.0	69.7%	68.3%	15.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.7	22.3	52.3%	52.5%	44.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.8	7.2	30.3%	31.4%	21.7
🏀 Free throws	23.3	15.6	66.9%	68.3%	15.6

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Parnu

LWLWWLLLLL

Ventspils

WWLWWWWLLW

League position

-2.4

Net rating

+3.4

86.7

Offensive rating

93.8

89.1

Defensive rating

90.5

47.1%

Effective FG%

50.5%

52.9%

Opp. effective FG%

50.6%

15.2%

Turnover %

15.7%

0.22

Free-throw rate

0.34

27.7%

3-point %

31.6%

70.8%

Assist %

62.7%

30%

Form (last 10/10)

70%

Profile

■ Parnu ■ Ventspils

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Parnu wins

Ventspils wins

Date	Game	Score
27/01/26	Ventspils v Parnu	80-71
17/12/25	Parnu v Ventspils	73-82
01/02/25	Parnu v Ventspils	100-90
10/12/24	Ventspils v Parnu	95-92 OT
19/12/23	Ventspils v Parnu	91-84
02/12/23	Parnu v Ventspils	77-80
08/03/23	Ventspils v Parnu	91-84
03/12/22	Parnu v Ventspils	81-75
09/02/22	Parnu v Ventspils	94-79
11/12/21	Ventspils v Parnu	81-72

Parnulast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Szczecin	69-82
01/11/26	H	Valmiera Glass Via	76-74
28/10/26	A	Nitra Blue Wings	80-82
25/10/26	H	Latvijas Universitate	91-77
22/10/26	H	Vienna Basket	86-69
17/10/26	A	VEF Riga	72-89
13/10/26	H	Nancy	61-84
10/10/26	H	Keila KK	70-75
07/10/26	A	Keravnos	70-88
03/10/26	A	BC Kalev/Cramo	78-79

Ventspilslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
30/10/26	H	Viimsi	75-60
24/10/26	A	BK Ogre	92-88
16/10/26	H	Tal Tech	82-85
11/10/26	A	Keila Coolbet	85-68
10/10/26	A	BC Kalev/Cramo	86-73
02/10/26	H	Tartu Ulikool	92-85
28/09/26	A	Latvijas Universitate	108-92
25/09/26	A	Valmiera Glass Via	76-98
24/03/26	A	VEF Riga	71-90
22/03/26	H	VEF Riga	72-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Parnu

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLWW	50%
Home	WLWW	75%
Away	LL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	4	2
Win %	50%	75%	0%
Points / game	77.2	78.2	75.0
Allowed / game	77.8	74.8	84.0
Point differential	-0.7	+3.5	-9.0
Avg total	155.0	153.0	159.0
Over 161.25	17%	25%	0%
Win by 10+	17%	25%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (4)	67% (3)	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Ventspils

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWW	75%
Home	WLW	67%
Away	LWWWW	80%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	8	3	5
Win %	75%	67%	80%
Points / game	87.0	83.0	89.4
Allowed / game	81.1	76.7	83.8
Point differential	+5.9	+6.3	+5.6
Avg total	168.1	159.7	173.2
Over 161.25	62%	67%	60%
Win by 10+	50%	33%	60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	0% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Rigas Zelli	7	7	0	100%	94.0	75.6	+18.4
2	VEF Riga	8	7	1	88%	89.8	71.4	+18.4
3	Valmiera Glass Via	8	6	2	75%	89.5	75.8	+13.8
4	Ventspils	8	6	2	75%	87.0	81.1	+5.9
5	Tartu Ulikool	7	5	2	71%	82.3	74.0	+8.3
6	Tal Tech	9	6	3	67%	74.6	71.8	+2.8
7	BC Kalev/Cramo	8	4	4	50%	84.6	82.6	+2.0
8	BK Ogre	8	4	4	50%	87.4	86.4	+1.0
9	Parnu	6	3	3	50%	77.2	77.8	-0.7
10	BK Liepaja	9	4	5	44%	83.6	76.0	+7.6
11	Keila KK	9	4	5	44%	72.7	81.7	-9.0
12	Rigas Juniori	8	3	5	38%	80.0	88.5	-8.5
13	Viimsi	9	1	8	11%	71.2	86.0	-14.8
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	11%	76.9	91.9	-15.0
15	Keila Coolbet	9	0	9	0%	70.3	91.1	-20.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Parnu	23	22	20	24	89
Ventspils	17	22	21	20	80

← all games of the day

Parnu vs Ventspils Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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