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NC State vs Troy Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 84-64
Projected total 148.3
Final 81-62
36-27 45-35
Position#46
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game62.3
NC State 🏆
USA
Vs
95%
■ NC S 95%■ TROY 5%
Pythia win probability
Troy
USA
Position#325
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game67.3
Allowed / game77.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

NC State will host Troy on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Wolfpack as the clear favourite, assigning them a 95% chance to win because of their undefeated 3-0 record, 84.7 points scored per game and only 62.3 points allowed, placing them 51st in the league; Troy, meanwhile, sits 295th with a 1-2 record, 67.3 points per game and 77.0 points allowed. NC State has won all three of its games, all at home, and has won three of its last five, including a 94-60 victory over Presbyterian, a 77-63 win over East Tennessee State and an 83-64 win over Campbell. Troy's season shows one win and two losses, with a road record of 0-1 and a 68-91 loss to Florida State, and they have won two of their last five, including a 74-69 win over Loyola Marymount. The Pythia model projects a 84-64 score for the game, with a total of 148.3 points; the home team's line is -22.5 and the model gives a 39% chance that NC State will cover, while the total line is 148.5 with a 49% chance of the over, and a 1% chance of overtime. The last meeting between the teams ended with NC State winning 84-64.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NC State winWon
95.1%fair 1.05
Best odds1.02
Implied94.4%
Edge+0.7pp
Troy winLost
4.9%fair 20.45
Best odds26.00
Implied5.6%
Edge-0.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
L
61-90
61
90
-29
A25/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
64-93
64
93
-29
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
98-88
98
88
+10
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
74-81
74
81
-7
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
83-64
83
64
+19
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#283
W
77-63
77
63
+14
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
94-60
94
60
+34
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
19-32
42-58
44-38
37-43
30-47
34-46
34-37
50-48
51-50
47-38
32-33
42-48
29-30
37-38
41-19
42-45
35-36
42-27
46-19
48-41
157.9Avg total
79.1Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.762.3147.0+22.3100%
Season at home (3)84.762.3147.0+22.3100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.178.8157.9+0.340%
Last 5 (5)78.867.2146.0+11.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.5105.5176.0-35.00%
vs Similar (13)75.774.8150.5+0.938%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)86.870.7157.5+16.187%
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
77-76
77
76
+1
A19/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
54-65
54
65
-11
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
78-59
78
59
+19
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
47-76
47
76
-29
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
L
68-91
68
91
-23
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#298
W
74-69 OT
74
69
+5
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-37
42-39
26-33
28-32
27-23
51-36
37-29
43-36
41-28
37-42
38-25
39-36
25-41
22-35
28-38
32-33
26-37
42-54
29-37
36-28
139.6Avg total
69.3Scored
70.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)67.377.0144.3-9.733%
Season at home (2)67.070.0137.0-3.050%
Season away (1)68.091.0159.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)69.370.3139.6-1.060%
Last 5 (5)65.273.6138.8-8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)65.675.2140.8-9.640%
vs Similar (10)71.671.7143.3-0.150%
vs Weaker (15)80.368.7148.9+11.680%
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144Actual: Under 144
Over 144
60.6%
@ 1.50-1.9pp
Under 144
39.4%
@ 2.50+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 149 · main lineActual: Under 149
Over 149
48.0%
@ 1.95-2.3pp
Under 149
52.0%
@ 1.91+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Over/Under 154Actual: Under 154
Over 154
35.7%
@ 2.65+0.6pp
Under 154
64.3%
@ 1.43-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43

📊 3. Team Totals

NC State total 81Push
Over 81
61.9%
Under 81
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC State total 85 · main lineActual: NC State under 85
Over 85
45.2%
@ 1.85-5.2pp
Under 85
54.8%
@ 1.88+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
NC State total 89Actual: NC State under 89
Over 89
29.4%
Under 89
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Troy total 59Actual: Troy over 59
Over 59
71.1%
Under 59
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Troy total 63 · main lineActual: Troy under 63
Over 63
55.6%
@ 1.86+5.7pp
Under 63
44.4%
@ 1.85-5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Troy total 67Actual: Troy under 67
Over 67
39.1%
Under 67
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread NC State -25.5Actual: Troy +25.5
NC S -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
TROY +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
TROY
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Spread NC State -22.5 · main lineActual: Troy +22.5
NC S -22.5
39.1%
@ 1.94-10.5pp
TROY +22.5
60.9%
@ 1.91+10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
TROY
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Spread NC State -19.5Actual: Troy +19.5
NC S -19.5
49.6%
@ 1.55-9.9pp
TROY +19.5
50.4%
@ 2.30+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NC S
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
TROY
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -1.6-1.62nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +0.1+0.1
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +2.0+2.01st half: -1.6-1.62nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +0.1+0.1
NC StateTroy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
L
19-32
19
32
-13
A25/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
30-47
30
47
-17
H03/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H11/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A12/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H18/03
NCAA
Campbell
#316
W
41-19
41
19
+22
H03/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#283
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H07/11
NCAA
Presbyterian
#379
W
46-19
46
19
+27
H11/11
NCAA
70.2Avg total
36.1Scored
34.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)38.033.571.6+4.563%53%
Last 30 at home (19)38.131.869.9+6.368%42%
Last 30 away (11)37.936.574.5+1.455%73%
Last 10 (10)36.134.170.2+2.040%50%
Last 5 (5)36.627.464.0+9.240%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.051.584.5-18.50%100%
vs Similar (13)33.532.666.2+0.938%38%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)42.631.974.5+10.793%60%
This opponent (Troy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Monroe
#369
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A19/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A21/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
27-23
27
23
+4
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H28/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H08/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H09/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A19/03
NCAA
UMass
#168
L
28-38
28
38
-10
H03/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#298
L
29-37
29
37
-8
H11/11
NCAA
64.0Avg total
31.2Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)34.432.166.5+2.450%27%
Last 30 at home (17)35.829.465.1+6.476%18%
Last 30 away (13)32.735.668.3-2.915%38%
Last 10 (10)31.232.864.0-1.640%10%
Last 5 (5)29.235.664.8-6.420%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)28.636.465.0-7.820%0%
vs Similar (10)33.734.267.9-0.550%40%
vs Weaker (15)36.929.266.1+7.760%27%
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: NC State win
NC S win
no forecast
@ 1.07
TROY win
no forecast
@ 8.75
1st half Spread NC State -13 · main lineActual: Troy +13
NC S -13
no forecast
@ 1.85
TROY +13
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
NC State 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: NC State under 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Troy 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Troy under 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread NC State -14.5Actual: Troy +14.5
NC S -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
TROY +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread NC State -11.5Actual: Troy +11.5
NC S -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
TROY +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread NC State -15.5Actual: Troy +15.5
NC S -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
TROY +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread NC State -10.5Actual: Troy +10.5
NC S -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
TROY +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Spread NC State -16.5Actual: Troy +16.5
NC S -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
TROY +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread NC State -9.5Actual: Troy +9.5
NC S -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
TROY +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: NC State (regulation)
NC S
no forecast
@ 1.08
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
TROY
no forecast
@ 12.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NC S win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
TROY win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NC S leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TROY leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
NC State under 89.571.7%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+7.9ppWon
NC State under 90.575.0%1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35		---+7.5ppWon
NC State under 94.585.9%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+6.4ppWon
NC State under 92.580.9%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+6.2ppWon
NC State (regulation)94.3%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+5.7ppWon
Troy over 58.572.1%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+5.6ppWon
NC State under 96.589.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+5.5ppWon
NC State under 98.593.0%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+5.0ppWon
Troy over 57.575.4%1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27		---+4.1ppWon
Troy over 55.581.3%1.18
Bet365
1.18		----+2.4ppWon
Troy over 56.578.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.3ppWon
Troy over 51.590.1%1.06
Bet365
1.06		----+1.8ppWon
Troy over 54.583.9%1.13
Bet365
1.13		----+1.6ppWon
NC State over 70.591.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+1.5ppWon
Under 173.594.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.2ppWon
Troy over 53.586.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+1.2ppWon
Troy over 52.588.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+1.1ppWon
Over 123.593.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.0ppWon
NC State win95.1%1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01		---+0.7ppWon
Under 168.589.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.2ppWon
NC State over 72.587.5%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----0.5ppWon
Troy under 79.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.6ppWon
Over 128.589.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.6ppWon
Troy under 77.590.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----1.2ppWon
NC State over 74.582.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.2ppWon
NC State over 76.577.2%1.16
Bet365
1.16		-----2.3ppWon
Under 158.573.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----2.4ppWon
Under 163.582.8%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.8ppWon
Troy under 75.586.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.8ppWon
Over 138.572.7%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----3.5ppWon
Over 133.582.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----3.5ppWon
NC State over 78.570.7%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----4.1ppWon
Troy under 73.581.9%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----5.3ppWon
Troy under 71.576.3%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----6.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
NC State wins
0
Troy wins
No previous meetings.
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HPresbyterian94-60
07/11/26HEast Tennessee St77-63
03/11/26HCampbell83-64
18/03/26HTexas66-68
12/03/26AVirginia74-81
11/03/26HPittsburgh98-88
07/03/26HStanford84-85
03/03/26HDuke64-93
28/02/26ANotre Dame90-96 OT
25/02/26AVirginia61-90
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HLoyola Marymount74-69 OT
07/11/26AFlorida State68-91
03/11/26HUMass60-71
19/03/26ANebraska47-76
09/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-61
08/03/26HSouthern Miss78-70
28/02/26HLouisiana Monroe80-65
25/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette78-59
21/02/26ASouth Alabama54-65
19/02/26ALouisiana Monroe77-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NC State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game84.784.7-
Allowed / game62.362.3-
Point differential+22.3+22.3-
Avg total147.0147.0-
Over 14933%33%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Troy
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game67.367.068.0
Allowed / game77.070.091.0
Point differential-9.7-3.0-23.0
Avg total144.3137.0159.0
Over 14933%0%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %33%50%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 Virginia440100%93.066.2+26.8
3 SMU Mustangs330100%92.768.3+24.3
4 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
5 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
6 Virginia Tech330100%92.369.7+22.7
7 NC State330100%84.762.3+22.3
8 North Carolina330100%88.368.3+20.0
9 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
10 Georgia Tech330100%85.069.7+15.3
11 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 California43175%87.575.2+12.2
14 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
15 Duke32167%90.060.3+29.7
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Wake Forest32167%72.066.7+5.3
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State330100%91.362.0+29.3
2 Old Dominion440100%76.254.5+21.8
3 Southern Miss32167%74.366.0+8.3
4 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
5 South Alabama42250%77.078.5-1.5
6 Appalachian State31233%70.060.3+9.7
7 Marshall31233%80.776.7+4.0
8 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
9 Georgia Southern31233%80.382.3-2.0
10 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
11 Troy31233%67.377.0-9.7
12 Arkansas State31233%74.084.3-10.3
13 Georgia State41325%85.877.2+8.5
14 Louisiana Monroe41325%84.086.5-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
NC State364581
Troy273562
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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