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Virginia vs NC State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 90-61
0-0 32-19 0-0 58-42
Position#19
Record24-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game69.4
Virginia 🏆
USA
vs
NC State
USA
Position#128
Record19-8
FormWWLLW
Points / game84.9
Allowed / game73.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Virginia v NC State
12 Mar 2026
VIRG81
NC S74
24 Feb 2026
VIRG90
NC S61
31 Dec 2024
VIRG70
NC S67
15 Mar 2024
VIRG65
NC S73
24 Jan 2024
VIRG59
NC S53
07 Feb 2023
VIRG63
NC S50
24 Feb 2021
VIRG61
NC S68
20 Jan 2020
VIRG51
NC S53
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
80-85
80
85
-5
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
40-37
0-0
32-31
0-0
43-34
0-0
37-51
0-0
35-44
0-0
38-29
0-0
27-32
0-0
46-34
0-0
33-20
0-0
34-27
0-0
38-35
0-0
34-24
0-0
32-32
0-0
29-26
0-0
37-37
0-0
33-29
0-0
59-27
0-0
35-41
0-0
39-44
0-0
47-39
147.2Avg total
77.5Scored
69.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)81.069.4150.4+11.786%
Season at home (17)83.465.8149.1+17.688%
Season away (11)77.574.9152.4+2.582%
Last 10 (10)77.569.7147.2+7.890%
Last 5 (5)76.666.8143.4+9.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)75.772.4148.1+3.267%
vs Weaker (21)81.868.6150.4+13.286%
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
77-118
77
118
-41
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
82-58
82
58
+24
H18/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-34
0-0
39-44
0-0
38-33
0-0
31-36
0-0
34-33
0-0
47-39
0-0
41-37
0-0
47-31
0-0
49-31
0-0
47-47
0-0
34-42
0-0
50-41
0-0
36-24
0-0
46-49
0-0
36-56
0-0
41-62
0-0
42-37
0-0
34-40
0-0
42-26
0-0
40-32
160.1Avg total
82.0Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)84.973.8158.6+11.170%
Season at home (17)84.168.8152.9+15.371%
Season away (10)86.182.2168.3+3.970%
Last 10 (10)82.078.1160.1+3.970%
Last 5 (5)80.281.8162.0-1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)74.090.5164.5-16.550%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.576.1155.5+3.453%
vs Weaker (13)88.868.6157.4+20.285%
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
VirginiaNC State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H24/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
33-20
33
20
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/02
NCAA
72.5Avg total
38.3Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.931.470.3+7.570%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.731.072.7+10.788%-
Last 30 away (13)35.331.967.2+3.446%-
Last 10 (10)38.334.272.5+4.150%-
Last 5 (5)41.035.076.0+6.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (9)36.632.869.3+3.856%-
vs Weaker (21)40.030.870.8+9.176%-
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H18/02
NCAA
74.0Avg total
38.7Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.033.672.6+5.473%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.231.270.4+8.083%-
Last 30 away (12)38.737.275.8+1.558%-
Last 10 (10)38.735.374.0+3.480%-
Last 5 (5)38.037.075.0+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.043.078.0-8.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)35.734.169.8+1.753%-
vs Weaker (13)43.431.675.0+11.8100%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Virginia wins
5
NC State wins
DateGameScore
03/01/26NC State v Virginia61-76
31/12/24Virginia v NC State70-67
16/03/24Virginia v NC State65-73 OT
25/01/24Virginia v NC State59-53 OT
06/01/24NC State v Virginia76-60
08/02/23Virginia v NC State63-50
22/01/22NC State v Virginia77-63
24/02/21Virginia v NC State61-68
04/02/21NC State v Virginia57-64
21/01/20Virginia v NC State51-53
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HMiami (FL)86-83
19/02/26AGeorgia Tech94-68
15/02/26AOhio State70-66
11/02/26AFlorida State61-58
07/02/26HSyracuse72-59
04/02/26HPittsburgh67-47
31/01/26ABoston College73-66
28/01/26ANotre Dame100-97 OT
24/01/26HNorth Carolina80-85
17/01/26ASMU Mustangs72-68
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/26HNorth Carolina82-58
14/02/26HMiami (FL)76-77
10/02/26ALouisville77-118
07/02/26HVirginia Tech82-73
04/02/26ASMU Mustangs84-83
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
21/01/26AClemson80-76 OT
17/01/26HGeorgia Tech74-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWWW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %86%88%82%
Points / game81.083.477.5
Allowed / game69.465.874.9
Point differential+11.7+17.6+2.5
Avg total150.4149.1152.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%71%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)67% (3)100% (4)
Overtime %7%0%18%
NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW70%
HomeLWWLW71%
AwayWWWWL70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271710
Win %70%71%70%
Points / game84.984.186.1
Allowed / game73.868.882.2
Point differential+11.1+15.3+3.9
Avg total158.6152.9168.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%59%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %7%6%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2725293%82.463.1+19.3
2 Virginia2824486%81.069.4+11.7
3 North Carolina2822679%80.670.8+9.9
4 Miami (FL)2721678%82.970.5+12.4
5 Louisville2820871%86.472.0+14.4
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 NC State2719870%84.973.8+11.1
8 SMU Mustangs2719870%86.877.6+9.3
9 California2719870%78.772.7+6.0
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford27161159%75.172.5+2.6
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Florida State27141352%80.077.7+2.3
14 Wake Forest27141352%79.377.2+2.1
15 Notre Dame27121544%74.473.4+1.0
16 Georgia Tech28111739%74.177.3-3.2
17 Pittsburgh27101737%70.071.6-1.6
18 Boston College2791833%67.770.6-2.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Virginia03205890
NC State01904261
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