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Notre Dame vs NC State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 96-90 (OT)
38-44 43-37 15-9
Position#269
Record12-16
FormLLWLL
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game74.4
Notre Dame 🏆
USA
vs
NC State
USA
Position#128
Record19-9
FormWLLWL
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game74.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Notre Dame v NC State
28 Feb 2026
NOTR96
NC S90
03 Jan 2024
NOTR52
NC S54
26 Jan 2022
NOTR73
NC S65
03 Mar 2021
NOTR69
NC S80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Notre Dame winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
97-100 OT
97
100
-3
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
79-82
79
82
-3
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
81-89
81
89
-8
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
89-74
89
74
+15
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
56-100
56
100
-44
H25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
33-42
36-49
24-35
44-29
44-35
29-38
31-40
41-46
32-38
33-38
32-41
47-41
37-43
44-46
45-33
44-41
20-23
48-50
22-54
34-46
157.9Avg total
74.4Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)73.874.4148.1-0.643%
Season at home (16)78.173.8151.8+4.362%
Season away (12)68.075.2143.2-7.217%
Last 10 (10)74.483.5157.9-9.120%
Last 5 (5)74.683.6158.2-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)68.175.9144.0-7.828%
vs Similar (11)78.971.6150.5+7.364%
vs Weaker (1)82.058.0140.0+24.0100%
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
77-118
77
118
-41
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
82-58
82
58
+24
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
61-90
61
90
-29
A25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-33
31-36
34-33
47-39
41-37
47-31
49-31
47-47
34-42
50-41
36-24
46-49
36-56
41-62
42-37
34-40
42-26
40-32
19-32
42-58
160.0Avg total
80.7Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)84.074.4158.4+9.668%
Season at home (17)84.168.8152.9+15.371%
Season away (11)83.882.9166.7+0.964%
Last 10 (10)80.779.3160.0+1.470%
Last 5 (5)75.683.2158.8-7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)74.090.5164.5-16.550%
vs Similar (15)79.476.3155.7+3.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)88.868.6157.4+20.285%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.4-6.41st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -2.4-2.42nd half: -1.0-1.0
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -6.4-6.41st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: -2.4-2.42nd half: -1.0-1.0
Notre DameNC State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
20-23
20
23
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
22-54
22
54
-32
H25/02
NCAA
70.4Avg total
32.0Scored
38.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.734.667.2-1.940%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.433.267.6+1.153%-
Last 30 away (13)30.536.366.8-5.823%-
Last 10 (10)32.038.470.4-6.420%-
Last 5 (5)31.238.870.0-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)31.937.369.2-5.328%-
vs Similar (11)33.130.663.7+2.555%-
vs Weaker (1)41.029.070.0+12.0100%-
This opponent (NC State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
19-32
19
32
-13
A25/02
NCAA
72.2Avg total
37.1Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.633.371.9+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.231.270.4+8.083%-
Last 30 away (12)37.836.474.2+1.358%-
Last 10 (10)37.135.172.2+2.070%-
Last 5 (5)35.035.070.0+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.043.078.0-8.050%-
vs Similar (15)35.033.568.5+1.553%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)43.431.675.0+11.8100%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Notre Dame wins
5
NC State wins
DateGameScore
09/01/25NC State v Notre Dame66-65
04/01/24Notre Dame v NC State52-54
25/01/23NC State v Notre Dame85-82
05/02/22NC State v Notre Dame57-69
27/01/22Notre Dame v NC State73-65
04/03/21Notre Dame v NC State69-80
09/01/20NC State v Notre Dame73-68
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HDuke56-100
21/02/26APittsburgh68-73
14/02/26HGeorgia Tech89-74
11/02/26ASMU Mustangs81-89
07/02/26HFlorida State79-82
05/02/26ALouisville65-76
31/01/26ASyracuse72-86
28/01/26HVirginia97-100 OT
24/01/26HBoston College68-64
22/01/26ANorth Carolina69-91
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26AVirginia61-90
18/02/26HNorth Carolina82-58
14/02/26HMiami (FL)76-77
10/02/26ALouisville77-118
07/02/26HVirginia Tech82-73
04/02/26ASMU Mustangs84-83
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
21/01/26AClemson80-76 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL43%
HomeWLLWL62%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281612
Win %43%62%17%
Points / game73.878.168.0
Allowed / game74.473.875.2
Point differential-0.6+4.3-7.2
Avg total148.1151.8143.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)50% (6)25% (4)
Overtime %7%6%8%
NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL68%
HomeLWWLW71%
AwayWWWLL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %68%71%64%
Points / game84.084.183.8
Allowed / game74.468.882.9
Point differential+9.6+15.3+0.9
Avg total158.4152.9166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%59%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %7%6%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2826293%83.062.9+20.1
2 Virginia2925486%81.369.1+12.3
3 Miami (FL)2822679%82.970.6+12.3
4 North Carolina2822679%80.670.8+9.9
5 Louisville2820871%86.472.0+14.4
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 California2820871%78.572.6+5.9
8 NC State2819968%84.074.4+9.6
9 SMU Mustangs2819968%86.277.4+8.8
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford28171161%75.172.3+2.8
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Wake Forest28141450%78.876.9+2.0
14 Florida State28141450%79.777.9+1.9
15 Notre Dame28121643%73.874.4-0.6
16 Georgia Tech28111739%74.177.3-3.2
17 Pittsburgh28101836%69.971.8-1.8
18 Boston College28101836%67.770.5-2.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Notre Dame38431596
NC State4437990
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