The NCAA showdown on 2 November 2026 pits Nevada against Robert Morris in a contest that feels almost evenly matched, with neither side clearly ahead. Nevada enters the game with a 3-2 record in its last five outings, including a narrow 80-45 home win over Air Force, a 84-80 road victory over Grand Canyon and a 66-79 loss to Utah State, while Robert Morris boasts a 4-1 run in its most recent five, highlighted by a 68-53 home win over Youngstown State, an 83-64 triumph over Cleveland State and a 64-70 defeat at home to Detroit. The Pythia model gives Nevada a 54% chance of triumph and Robert Morris a 46% chance, projecting a tight 72-71 finish and a total of 142.6 points. The home team faces a -13.0 line, with only a 15% chance of covering, and the over/under at 144.5 carries a 45% probability of exceeding. With a 5% chance of overtime, the game could stretch into extra time, but the projected score suggests a close finish that may hinge on a single defensive stop.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nevada winWon
54.1%fair 1.85
Best odds1.12
Implied87.4%
Edge-33.2pp
Robert Morris winLost
45.9%fair 2.18
Best odds8.00
Implied12.6%
Edge+33.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Nevada total 78.5 · main lineActual: Nevada over 78.5
Over 78.5
25.9%
@ 1.91-23.7pp
Under 78.5
74.1%
@ 1.95+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Nevada total 82.5Actual: Nevada over 82.5
Over 82.5
15.0%
@ 2.60-22.0pp
Under 82.5
85.0%
@ 1.50+22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
Robert Morris total 62Actual: Robert Morris under 62
Over 62
80.9%
Under 62
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Robert Morris total 66 · main lineActual: Robert Morris under 66
Over 66
68.1%
@ 1.87+18.4pp
Under 66
31.9%
@ 1.85-18.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Robert Morris total 70Actual: Robert Morris under 70
Over 70
52.6%
Under 70
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Nevada -16Actual: Nevada -16
NEVA -16
9.5%
@ 2.30-30.7pp
ROBE +16
90.5%
@ 1.55+30.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Bet365
2.30
ROBE
Bet365
1.55
Spread Nevada -13 · main lineActual: Nevada -13
NEVA -13
14.5%
@ 1.96-34.6pp
ROBE +13
85.5%
@ 1.92+34.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
ROBE
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Nevada -10Actual: Nevada -10
NEVA -10
21.4%
@ 1.52-39.9pp
ROBE +10
78.6%
@ 2.40+39.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NEVA
Bet365
1.52
ROBE
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NevadaRobert Morris
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Robert Morris +8
72.9%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
Robert Morris +9
75.9%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+40.8pp
Lost
Robert Morris +10
78.6%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+39.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris +8.5
73.7%
2.70
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.67
-
-
-
+39.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris +7.5
70.7%
2.98
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Robert Morris +9.5
76.6%
2.48
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+39.1pp
Lost
Robert Morris +11
81.2%
2.24
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris +10.5
79.2%
2.27
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris +11.5
81.6%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.10
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Robert Morris +12
83.4%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
Robert Morris +12.5
83.8%
1.95
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
BetVictor
1.88
+35.5pp
Lost
Robert Morris +13
85.5%
1.88
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
+34.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris +13.5
85.8%
1.83
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
+32.4pp
Lost
Robert Morris +15.5
89.2%
1.61
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris +14
87.3%
1.73
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris +16
90.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris +14.5
87.6%
1.70
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris +16.5
90.6%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris +15
89.0%
1.62
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris +17
91.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Robert Morris +17.5
91.9%
1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris +18
92.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris +18.5
93.0%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Nevada under 79
76.5%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Nevada under 80.5
80.0%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Robert Morris +19.5
94.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Nevada under 79.5
77.2%
1.78
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Robert Morris +19
93.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Nevada under 78.5
74.1%
1.90
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
+23.7pp
Lost
Nevada under 77.5
70.9%
2.04
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
1.98
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Lost
Nevada under 81.5
82.6%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris +20.5
94.8%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Lost
Robert Morris +20
94.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Nevada under 82.5
85.0%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Nevada under 83.5
87.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Robert Morris +21
95.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Robert Morris +21.5
95.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 64.5
72.6%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Lost
Nevada under 84.5
89.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Nevada under 85.5
90.7%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 63.5
75.7%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Robert Morris +23.5
96.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 62.5
78.7%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
+16.2pp
Lost
Nevada under 86.5
92.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Robert Morris over 61.5
81.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
Nevada under 87.5
93.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Robert Morris over 60.5
83.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Nevada under 88.5
94.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Robert Morris over 59.5
86.2%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Nevada under 89.5
95.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Robert Morris over 58.5
88.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Nevada under 90.5
96.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Nevada under 91.5
97.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Robert Morris over 56.5
91.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 55.5
93.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Under 151.5
71.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 151
70.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 152
72.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 169.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 152.5
73.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.5pp
-
Under 164.5
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 154.5
76.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 159.5
84.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Over 119.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Over 124.5
86.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Robert Morris under 82.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
78.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Robert Morris under 80.5
82.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Nevada over 62.5
81.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Nevada over 63.5
79.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Robert Morris under 78.5
77.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Nevada over 64.5
76.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Won
Robert Morris under 76.5
71.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Won
Nevada over 65.5
73.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
Nevada +6.5
74.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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