The NCAA contest on 7 November 2026 pits Niagara against Morgan State in a game the model predicts will be low-scoring, with both teams' defenses and a slow pace keeping points down. Niagara enters the matchup after a single loss, 0-1, having averaged 46.0 points and allowed 91.0 per game, while Morgan State is undefeated 2-0, averaging 99.0 points and conceding only 55.0, a stark contrast that hints at a defensive battle. Niagara's recent form shows one win and four losses in its last five, including a 46-91 loss to West Virginia, whereas Morgan State has won four of its last five, highlighted by a 95-58 win over Virginia-Lynchburg. The only previous meeting ended with Morgan State defeating Niagara 81-73 on 13 December 2025, a reminder of the home-team advantage. Pythia favours Niagara with a 73% chance of victory versus 27% for Morgan State, projecting a 75-68 score and a total of 143.7 points. The home line of -3.5 carries a 63% probability of covering, while the over on 150.5 carries a 33% chance, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Niagara winLost
72.5%fair 1.38
Best odds1.64
Implied58.7%
Edge+13.8pp
Morgan State winWon
27.5%fair 3.64
Best odds2.40
Implied41.3%
Edge-13.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Niagara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144Actual: Under 144
Over 144
48.6%
@ 1.50-13.9pp
Under 144
51.4%
@ 2.50+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 149 · main lineActual: Under 149
Over 149
36.4%
@ 1.95-13.0pp
Under 149
63.6%
@ 1.95+13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.76
Under
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 154Actual: Under 154
Over 154
25.7%
@ 2.62-9.8pp
Under 154
74.3%
@ 1.44+9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Niagara total 72.5Actual: Niagara under 72.5
Over 72.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under 72.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.40
Niagara total 77 · main lineActual: Niagara under 77
Over 77
42.7%
@ 1.87-7.3pp
Under 77
57.3%
@ 1.85+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Niagara total 81Actual: Niagara under 81
Over 81
27.5%
Under 81
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 69Actual: Morgan State over 69
Over 69
47.3%
Under 69
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 73 · main linePush
Over 73
31.9%
@ 1.84-18.3pp
Under 73
68.1%
@ 1.86+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Morgan State total 77Actual: Morgan State under 77
Over 77
19.5%
Under 77
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Niagara -6.5Actual: Morgan State +6.5
NIAG -6.5
51.5%
@ 2.30+11.0pp
MORG +6.5
48.5%
@ 1.55-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NIAG
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
MORG
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Spread Niagara -3.5 · main lineActual: Morgan State +3.5
NIAG -3.5
62.9%
@ 1.96+14.0pp
MORG +3.5
37.1%
@ 1.90-14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
NIAG
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
MORG
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Niagara -0.5Actual: Morgan State +0.5
NIAG -0.5
72.5%
MORG +0.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
NIAG
No market prices yet.
MORG
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
NiagaraMorgan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morgan StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H07/02
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A17/02
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H21/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
L
45-55
45
55
-10
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#415
W
53-27
53
27
+26
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#425
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H05/11
NCAA
82.1Avg total
44.6Scored
37.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 78.5
Last 30 (30)
41.3
38.9
80.2
+2.4
60%
53%
Last 30 at home (17)
44.1
37.1
81.2
+7.1
76%
59%
Last 30 away (13)
37.5
41.3
78.8
-3.8
38%
46%
Last 10 (10)
44.6
37.5
82.1
+7.1
80%
60%
Last 5 (5)
45.4
36.2
81.6
+9.2
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)
40.0
44.4
84.4
-4.4
40%
70%
vs Similar (8)
36.0
38.2
74.2
-2.2
50%
25%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)
45.8
34.8
80.6
+11.1
83%
58%
This opponent (Niagara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Niagara win
NIAG win
no forecast
@ 1.72
MORG win
no forecast
@ 2.15
2nd half Spread Niagara -1.5 · main lineActual: Niagara -1.5
NIAG -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
MORG +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Morgan State (regulation)
NIAG
no forecast
@ 1.75
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
MORG
no forecast
@ 2.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Morgan State under 74
71.5%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Morgan State under 74.5
72.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Morgan State under 76.5
78.4%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Morgan State under 75.5
75.5%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
Niagara win
72.5%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.59
SBO
1.58
+13.8pp
Lost
Morgan State under 77.5
81.0%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Niagara -1
71.8%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Under 152
70.2%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Niagara +1
74.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Lost
Niagara -1.5
70.1%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
+12.4pp
Lost
Niagara +2.5
78.0%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Niagara +5.5
84.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Niagara +1.5
74.8%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Niagara +2
77.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Niagara +3
79.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Niagara +3.5
80.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Niagara +4.5
82.7%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Niagara +4
82.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Niagara +6.5
86.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Under 152.5
70.9%
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.66
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 158
81.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 157.5
80.2%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 153.5
72.9%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
81.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 154.5
74.8%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 153
72.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 154
74.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
76.7%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 155
76.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Under 156.5
78.5%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 157
79.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Under 156
78.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 160.5
84.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Niagara +11.5
93.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Niagara +16.5
97.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Under 159.5
83.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Niagara +21.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 165.5
90.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 175.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.1pp
-
Under 174.5
96.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Niagara under 93.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 164.5
89.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Niagara under 80.5
70.0%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
93.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Niagara under 91.5
94.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Niagara under 81.5
73.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Niagara under 95.5
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Niagara under 89.5
92.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Niagara under 83.5
79.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Niagara under 85.5
84.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Niagara under 87.5
88.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Morgan State +23.5
92.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Morgan State +18.5
84.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Morgan State over 55.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Morgan State over 56.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 124.5
87.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Morgan State over 57.5
85.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Morgan State +13.5
72.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Over 125.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Morgan State over 58.5
83.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Morgan State over 59.5
80.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Over 129.5
80.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Over 130.5
78.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
Morgan State over 60.5
77.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Morgan State over 61.5
74.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Morgan State over 62.5
71.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Over 134.5
70.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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