Nicholls State faces Louisiana Tech on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Wildcats at 65% versus 35% for the Bulldogs, projecting a 71-66 win for the home side. Nicholls State is 1-2 this season, averaging 78.7 points and allowing 67.7, and sits 256th in the league, yet they are undefeated at home 1-0, scoring 110.0 and conceding 56.0, and have won 2 of their last five games; their recent outings include a 110-56 home victory over North American Stallions, a 63-77 loss to Tulane, and a 63-70 loss to UAB. Louisiana Tech is 2-1 this season, averaging 70.3 points and allowing 60.7, positioned 163rd, and has gone 0-1 on the road, scoring 50.0 and conceding 90.0, with three wins in their last five games; they beat Ark Monticello 76-17 and Kent State 85-75 at home, but fell 50-90 to LSU away. The only prior meeting was on 2 December 2023 when Louisiana Tech won 68-55. The Wildcats are expected to cover the -1.0 spread 64% of the time, and the over on the 136.0 total is projected at 53%, with a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on Nicholls State's ability to maintain their home scoring edge against Louisiana Tech's defensive record.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nicholls State winWon
65.1%fair 1.54
Best odds1.94
Implied49.6%
Edge+15.5pp
Louisiana Tech winLost
34.9%fair 2.87
Best odds2.02
Implied50.4%
Edge-15.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Nicholls State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 130Actual: Over 130
Over 130
67.0%
@ 1.41+1.3pp
Under 130
33.0%
@ 2.70-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 135 · main lineActual: Over 135
Over 135
55.0%
@ 1.88+4.5pp
Under 135
45.0%
@ 1.95-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 140Actual: Under 140
Over 140
42.6%
@ 2.55-2.7pp
Under 140
57.4%
@ 1.82+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.88
Under
1xBet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Nicholls State total 64.5Actual: Nicholls State over 64.5
Over 64.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under 64.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.40
Nicholls State total 69 · main lineActual: Nicholls State over 69
Over 69
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.7pp
Under 69
42.6%
@ 1.85-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Nicholls State total 73Actual: Nicholls State under 73
Over 73
41.1%
Under 73
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisiana Tech total 64Actual: Louisiana Tech over 64
Over 64
59.4%
Under 64
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisiana Tech total 68 · main linePush
Over 68
43.4%
@ 1.85-6.6pp
Under 68
56.6%
@ 1.87+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Louisiana Tech total 72Actual: Louisiana Tech under 72
Over 72
28.6%
Under 72
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Nicholls State -2Actual: Nicholls State -2
NICH -2
60.7%
@ 2.16+16.4pp
LOUI +2
39.3%
@ 1.81-16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
NICH
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathon Be
2.01
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.90
SBO
1.88
LOUI
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Spread Nicholls State +1 · main lineActual: Nicholls State +1
NICH +1
66.8%
@ 1.87+15.5pp
LOUI -1
33.2%
@ 1.97-15.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NICH
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.76
LOUI
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Spread Nicholls State +4Actual: Nicholls State +4
NICH +4
76.3%
@ 1.47+12.5pp
LOUI -4
23.7%
@ 2.60-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
NICH
Bet365
1.47
LOUI
Bet365
2.60
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Nicholls StateLouisiana Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Nicholls State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Nicholls State win
NICH win
no forecast
@ 1.91
LOUI win
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Spread Nicholls State -1.5 · main lineActual: Nicholls State -1.5
NICH -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
LOUI +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
2nd half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Nicholls State 2nd half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Nicholls State over 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
Louisiana Tech 2nd half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Louisiana Tech under 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
2nd half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Spread Nicholls State +1.5Actual: Nicholls State +1.5
NICH +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
LOUI -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Nicholls State (regulation)
NICH
no forecast
@ 1.95
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
LOUI
no forecast
@ 1.95
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Nicholls State +3
73.4%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +2
70.3%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Nicholls State +2.5
71.4%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +3.5
74.1%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Nicholls State +4.5
77.0%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Nicholls State +5.5
79.7%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Nicholls State +6.5
82.2%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Nicholls State +5
79.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Nicholls State +4
76.3%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Nicholls State +6
81.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Nicholls State +7
84.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Nicholls State +7.5
84.4%
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Nicholls State +10.5
89.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Nicholls State +9
88.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +8
86.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +9.5
88.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +8.5
86.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Nicholls State +15.5
95.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Nicholls State +20.5
97.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 74.5
78.4%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 73.5
75.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 72.5
72.4%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 75.5
81.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 146.5
71.7%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Nicholls State under 87.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Louisiana Tech +24.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 79.5
89.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 80.5
91.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 146
71.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 76.5
83.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 127.5
72.0%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Nicholls State under 85.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 78.5
87.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Louisiana Tech under 77.5
85.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 128
71.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Louisiana Tech +19.5
90.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Nicholls State under 83.5
89.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 50.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 52.5
91.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 51.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Nicholls State under 84.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Nicholls State under 81.5
85.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 53.5
89.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 54.5
87.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 125.5
76.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Nicholls State under 79.5
80.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Over 120.5
84.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Under 155.5
86.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Nicholls State under 82.5
87.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 55.5
85.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 56.5
83.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Louisiana Tech +14.5
81.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 58.5
77.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Under 150.5
79.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Louisiana Tech +10.5
70.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 57.5
80.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Nicholls State under 80.5
83.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 60.5
71.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Louisiana Tech over 59.5
74.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Nicholls State under 78.5
77.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Nicholls State under 77.5
74.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Nicholls State under 76.5
71.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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