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NLEX Road Warriors vs Macau Black Bears Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 09:15
Final 138-78
38-23 32-20 35-18 33-17
Position#1
Record7-2
FormWWLWL
Points / game111.6
Allowed / game99.8
vs
Position#13
Record2-6
FormLWWLL
Points / game105.8
Allowed / game121.6
PhilippinesGovernors Cup
Other2025
Meetings · NLEX Road Warriors v Macau Black Bears
07 Oct 2026
NLEX138
MACA78
14 Apr 2026
NLEX106
MACA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NLEX Road Warriors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Macau Black Bears winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NLEX Road WarriorsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
112-118
112
118
-6
H16/05
Commissioners Cup
Macau Black Bears
#13
W
114-75
114
75
+39
A10/07
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
W
101-100
101
100
+1
H12/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
W
135-100
135
100
+35
H14/07
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
W
110-96
110
96
+14
H26/07
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
W
119-107
119
107
+12
A01/08
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
W
88-83
88
83
+5
H04/08
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
L
109-114
109
114
-5
A07/08
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
W
118-111 OT
118
111
+7
H11/08
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
L
110-112
110
112
-2
A14/08
Governors Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-36
24-28
30-37
28-17
18-13
27-23
36-22
33-17
32-29
33-19
25-19
11-33
30-24
31-19
36-39
38-18
30-21
34-25
26-25
20-25
42-27
21-37
25-24
31-19
26-18
30-23
14-24
18-18
30-34
35-26
21-28
23-26
31-22
29-31
25-26
22-28
30-22
21-29
28-23
31-38
213.2Avg total
111.6Scored
101.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)111.699.8211.3+11.878%
Season at home (5)110.498.0208.4+12.4100%
Season away (4)113.0102.0215.0+11.050%
Last 10 (10)111.6101.6213.2+10.070%
Last 5 (5)108.8105.4214.2+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)100.298.2198.5+2.075%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)106.099.4205.5+6.664%
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Macau Black BearsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
L
84-102
84
102
-18
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
105-98
105
98
+7
H06/05
Commissioners Cup
NLEX Road Warriors
#1
L
75-114
75
114
-39
H10/07
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
L
109-123
109
123
-14
A14/07
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
L
124-149
124
149
-25
H17/07
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
L
103-106
103
106
-3
A19/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
W
132-126
132
126
+6
H25/07
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
W
96-92
96
92
+4
A29/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
L
128-132
128
132
-4
A04/08
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
L
79-131
79
131
-52
H08/08
Governors Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
33-33
24-24
7-24
34-23
21-28
20-24
30-23
13-18
23-27
22-36
17-33
30-24
28-29
28-36
23-34
21-34
40-33
35-42
28-40
21-25
27-27
19-28
36-26
19-35
32-32
44-27
37-32
19-28
24-26
29-14
24-24
29-47
31-33
33-28
35-24
20-35
17-45
16-31
26-20
220.8Avg total
103.5Scored
117.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)105.8121.6227.4-15.925%
Season at home (4)102.5130.0232.5-27.525%
Season away (4)109.0113.2222.2-4.225%
Last 10 (10)103.5117.3220.8-13.830%
Last 5 (5)107.6117.4225.0-9.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)98.2110.7209.0-12.512%
vs Similar (2)88.599.0187.5-10.50%
vs Weaker (4)110.5100.2210.8+10.2100%
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: -6.4-6.4Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: -6.4-6.4Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
NLEX Road WarriorsMacau Black Bears
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NLEX Road WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H16/05
Commissioners Cup
Macau Black Bears
#13
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A10/07
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
W
65-48
65
48
+17
H12/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
W
61-43
61
43
+18
H14/07
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
W
64-46
64
46
+18
H26/07
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A01/08
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H04/08
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
W
65-60
65
60
+5
A07/08
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
W
60-53
60
53
+7
H11/08
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
D
51-51
51
51
+0
A14/08
Governors Cup
109.0Avg total
58.4Scored
50.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.648.899.4+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (18)52.848.7101.4+4.167%-
Last 30 away (12)47.348.996.2-1.633%-
Last 10 (10)58.450.6109.0+7.870%-
Last 5 (5)59.053.8112.8+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)46.449.996.2-3.525%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)52.148.4100.5+3.864%-
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Macau Black BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
L
53-54
53
54
-1
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H06/05
Commissioners Cup
NLEX Road Warriors
#1
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H10/07
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
W
58-53
58
53
+5
A14/07
Governors Cup
Converge FiberXers
#2
L
61-67
61
67
-6
H17/07
Governors Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#3
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A19/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
L
51-67
51
67
-16
H25/07
Governors Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#8
L
43-54
43
54
-11
A29/07
Governors Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#12
L
60-80
60
80
-20
A04/08
Governors Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#4
L
37-80
37
80
-43
H08/08
Governors Cup
110.5Avg total
50.2Scored
60.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.953.8103.7-3.937%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.354.9104.2-5.644%-
Last 30 away (14)50.652.6103.1-2.029%-
Last 10 (10)50.260.3110.5-10.120%-
Last 5 (5)47.866.6114.4-18.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)48.854.9103.8-6.129%-
vs Similar (2)53.051.0104.0+2.050%-
vs Weaker (4)54.848.5103.2+6.275%-
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
NLEX Road Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

NLEX Road Warriors: 93.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.220.7
47.9%
-41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.011.5
33.8%
-34.5
🏀 Free throws24.517.3
70.6%
-17.3
They take 77.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Macau Black Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Macau Black Bears: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.320.2
48.8%
-40.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.8
33.3%
-29.5
🏀 Free throws16.011.8
74.0%
-11.8
They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 07 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
NLEX Road Warriors
LWLWWWWWWL
Macau Black Bears
LLWWLLLLWL
#1
League position
#13
-6.6
Net rating
-16.2
105.4
Offensive rating
100.6
112.0
Defensive rating
116.8
49.2%
Effective FG%
49.3%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
13.0%
Turnover %
12.8%
23.5%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.8%
3-point %
33.3%
59.3%
Assist %
45.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ NLEX Road Warriors   ■ Macau Black Bears
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
NLEX Road Warriors wins
0
Macau Black Bears wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/08/26AConverge FiberXers110-112
11/08/26HTNT Tropang Giga118-111 OT
07/08/26ATerrafirma Dyip109-114
04/08/26HTNT Tropang Giga88-83
01/08/26AConverge FiberXers119-107
26/07/26HSan Miguel Beermen110-96
14/07/26HTitan Ultra Giant Risers135-100
12/07/26HTerrafirma Dyip101-100
10/07/26AMacau Black Bears114-75
16/05/26HTNT Tropang Giga112-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/08/26HSan Miguel Beermen79-131
04/08/26ATitan Ultra Giant Risers128-132
29/07/26ATerrafirma Dyip96-92
25/07/26HTitan Ultra Giant Risers132-126
19/07/26ATNT Tropang Giga103-106
17/07/26HConverge FiberXers124-149
14/07/26ASan Miguel Beermen109-123
10/07/26HNLEX Road Warriors75-114
06/05/26HPhoenix Fuelmasters105-98
02/05/26ATerrafirma Dyip84-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NLEX Road Warriors
Governors Cup 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL78%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %78%100%50%
Points / game111.6110.4113.0
Allowed / game99.898.0102.0
Point differential+11.8+12.4+11.0
Avg total211.3208.4215.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)100% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %11%20%0%
Macau Black Bears
Governors Cup 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL25%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%25%25%
Points / game105.8102.5109.0
Allowed / game121.6130.0113.2
Point differential-15.9-27.5-4.2
Avg total227.4232.5222.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Miguel Beermen97278%120.9105.4+15.4
2 NLEX Road Warriors97278%111.699.8+11.8
3 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters64267%103.3105.0-1.7
4 Magnolia Hotshots74357%97.792.1+5.6
5 Phoenix Fuelmasters74357%96.997.1-0.3
6 Converge FiberXers95456%115.7110.8+4.9
7 TNT Tropang Giga84450%101.299.9+1.4
8 Blackwater Bossing63350%103.0103.7-0.7
9 Terrafirma Dyip83538%105.0105.8-0.8
10 Meralco Bolts83538%97.0100.0-3.0
11 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel62433%89.589.3+0.2
12 Macau Black Bears82625%105.8121.6-15.9
13 Titan Ultra Giant Risers92722%103.7122.2-18.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
NLEX Road Warriors38323533138
Macau Black Bears2320181778
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