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Macau Black Bears vs NLEX Road Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 10 Jul 2026
Tip-off: 11:30
Final 75-114
13-18 23-27 22-36 17-33
Position#13
Record-
FormWLWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#1
Record-
FormWWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
PhilippinesGovernors Cup
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Macau Black Bears winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NLEX Road Warriors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Macau Black BearsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
93-110
93
110
-17
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
109-121
109
121
-12
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
94-110
94
110
-16
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
L
110-115
110
115
-5
H11/04
Commissioners Cup
NLEX Road Warriors
#1
L
97-106
97
106
-9
A14/04
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
W
119-107
119
107
+12
H21/04
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
112-119
112
119
-7
A24/04
Commissioners Cup
Blackwater Bossing
#12
W
123-119
123
119
+4
H28/04
Commissioners Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
L
84-102
84
102
-18
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
105-98
105
98
+7
H06/05
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-24
22-39
25-21
25-26
25-26
26-26
17-32
41-37
26-33
25-29
32-31
11-17
25-26
32-27
24-34
29-28
21-28
31-24
26-22
19-32
24-32
41-16
27-29
27-30
25-24
23-26
37-38
27-31
25-21
28-28
38-39
32-31
20-21
33-33
24-24
7-24
34-23
21-28
20-24
30-23
215.3Avg total
104.6Scored
110.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)104.6110.7215.3-6.130%
Last 5 (5)108.6109.0217.6-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)95.4104.8200.1-9.412%
vs Similar (5)90.896.2187.0-5.420%
vs Weaker (8)101.894.8196.5+7.075%
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NLEX Road WarriorsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
120-102
120
102
+18
H05/04
Commissioners Cup
Macau Black Bears
#11
W
106-97
106
97
+9
H14/04
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
W
104-101 OT
104
101
+3
A17/04
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
94-98
94
98
-4
H19/04
Commissioners Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
W
95-85
95
85
+10
A25/04
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
W
92-90
92
90
+2
H29/04
Commissioners Cup
Converge FiberXers
#9
W
100-81
100
81
+19
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
W
123-112 OT
123
112
+11
H05/05
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
93-96
93
96
-3
A13/05
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
112-118
112
118
-6
H16/05
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-17
19-25
27-30
41-30
28-21
24-31
22-26
32-19
14-19
21-26
29-31
25-13
35-25
17-25
16-27
26-21
18-23
18-24
34-9
25-29
18-23
19-26
38-29
17-12
23-11
11-25
28-18
38-27
25-24
25-35
36-23
21-25
26-26
26-24
20-26
21-20
30-36
24-28
30-37
28-17
201.9Avg total
103.9Scored
98.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)103.998.0201.9+5.970%
Last 5 (5)104.099.4203.4+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)85.0105.0190.0-20.00%
vs Similar (13)100.594.4194.9+6.285%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)101.796.5198.3+5.260%
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +6.1+6.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +6.1+6.1
Macau Black BearsNLEX Road Warriors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Macau Black BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
43-63
43
63
-20
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H11/04
Commissioners Cup
NLEX Road Warriors
#1
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A14/04
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
W
65-48
65
48
+17
H21/04
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A24/04
Commissioners Cup
Blackwater Bossing
#12
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H28/04
Commissioners Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
L
53-54
53
54
-1
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H06/05
Commissioners Cup
106.2Avg total
52.8Scored
53.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.249.098.2+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (18)49.149.098.1+0.161%-
Last 30 away (12)49.449.198.5+0.333%-
Last 10 (10)52.853.4106.2-0.640%-
Last 5 (5)54.850.4105.2+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)49.051.1100.1-2.141%-
vs Similar (5)49.447.697.0+1.860%-
vs Weaker (8)49.545.595.0+4.062%-
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NLEX Road WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H05/04
Commissioners Cup
Macau Black Bears
#11
D
52-52
52
52
+0
H14/04
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A17/04
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H19/04
Commissioners Cup
Terrafirma Dyip
#10
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A25/04
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
L
37-49
37
49
-12
H29/04
Commissioners Cup
Converge FiberXers
#9
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A02/05
Commissioners Cup
Titan Ultra Giant Risers
#13
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H05/05
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
W
52-50
52
50
+2
A13/05
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H16/05
Commissioners Cup
94.8Avg total
45.4Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.546.894.3+0.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.147.795.8+0.456%-
Last 30 away (14)46.945.792.6+1.150%-
Last 10 (10)45.449.494.8-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)45.451.697.0-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.549.593.0-6.00%-
vs Similar (13)47.946.994.8+1.054%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)47.746.394.0+1.560%-
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Macau Black Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Macau Black Bears: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.320.2
48.8%
-40.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.8
33.3%
-29.5
🏀 Free throws16.011.8
74.0%
-11.8
They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
NLEX Road Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

NLEX Road Warriors: 93.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.220.7
47.9%
-41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.011.5
33.8%
-34.5
🏀 Free throws24.517.3
70.6%
-17.3
They take 77.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/10 games with a box score before 10 Jul 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Macau Black Bears
WLWLWLLLLL
NLEX Road Warriors
LLWWWWLWWW
#13
League position
#1
-16.2
Net rating
-6.6
100.6
Offensive rating
105.4
116.8
Defensive rating
112.0
49.3%
Effective FG%
49.2%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.5%
12.8%
Turnover %
13.0%
20.5%
Off. rebound %
23.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.32
33.3%
3-point %
33.8%
45.0%
Assist %
59.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Macau Black Bears   ■ NLEX Road Warriors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Macau Black Bears wins
1
NLEX Road Warriors wins
DateGameScore
14/04/26NLEX Road Warriors v Macau Black Bears106-97
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/26HPhoenix Fuelmasters105-98
02/05/26ATerrafirma Dyip84-102
28/04/26HBlackwater Bossing123-119
24/04/26ATNT Tropang Giga112-119
21/04/26HTitan Ultra Giant Risers119-107
14/04/26ANLEX Road Warriors97-106
11/04/26HMeralco Bolts110-115
31/03/26ASan Miguel Beermen94-110
28/03/26AMagnolia Hotshots109-121
20/03/26HBarangay Ginebra San Miguel93-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/05/26HTNT Tropang Giga112-118
13/05/26ATNT Tropang Giga93-96
05/05/26HTitan Ultra Giant Risers123-112 OT
02/05/26AConverge FiberXers100-81
29/04/26HRain or Shine Elasto Painters92-90
25/04/26ATerrafirma Dyip95-85
19/04/26HSan Miguel Beermen94-98
17/04/26AMeralco Bolts104-101 OT
14/04/26HMacau Black Bears106-97
05/04/26HPhoenix Fuelmasters120-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Macau Black Bears
Governors Cup 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
NLEX Road Warriors
Governors Cup 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Terrafirma Dyip110100%113.0100.0+13.0
2 Titan Ultra Giant Risers1010%100.0113.0-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Macau Black Bears1323221775
NLEX Road Warriors18273633114
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