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NLEX Road Warriors vs Macau Black Bears Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 14 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 09:15
Final 106-97
28-21 24-31 22-26 32-19
Position#1
Record4-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game106.2
Allowed / game100.8
vs
Position#11
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game101.5
Allowed / game112.3
PhilippinesCommissioners Cup
Other2025
Meetings · NLEX Road Warriors v Macau Black Bears
07 Oct 2026
NLEX138
MACA78
14 Apr 2026
NLEX106
MACA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NLEX Road Warriors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Macau Black Bears winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NLEX Road WarriorsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarriors
Date
Competition
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#9
W
105-95
105
95
+10
no box
H01/06
Philippine Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#3
W
107-99
107
99
+8
no box
A06/06
Philippine Cup
NorthPort
#11
L
108-113
108
113
-5
no box
H11/06
Philippine Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#7
L
89-92
89
92
-3
no box
H18/06
Philippine Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#7
L
92-103
92
103
-11
no box
A21/06
Philippine Cup
Blackwater Bossing
#12
W
84-81
84
81
+3
no box
A13/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
W
112-105
112
105
+7
no box
H15/03
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
L
97-103
97
103
-6
no box
H22/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
W
118-113
118
113
+5
no box
A27/03
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
120-102
120
102
+18
no box
H05/04
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-25
23-22
25-27
25-21
15-32
29-14
36-24
27-29
30-22
24-24
22-40
32-27
15-28
22-19
36-22
16-23
27-21
28-31
22-26
15-25
15-25
19-16
26-20
24-20
27-26
30-33
25-21
30-25
21-21
24-22
27-23
25-37
18-30
36-29
38-28
26-26
33-17
19-25
27-30
41-30
203.8Avg total
103.2Scored
100.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)106.2100.8207.0+5.480%
Season at home (3)109.7103.3213.0+6.367%
Season away (2)101.097.0198.0+4.0100%
Last 10 (10)103.2100.6203.8+2.660%
Last 5 (5)106.2100.8207.0+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)90.5102.3192.8-11.80%
vs Similar (13)100.595.4195.8+5.177%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)102.094.1196.1+7.973%
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Macau Black BearsPhilippinesLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBears
Date
Competition
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
86-104
86
104
-18
77avg 68
A14/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
81-87
81
87
-6
65avg 68
A17/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
83-95
83
95
-12
66avg 68
H04/01
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
79-102
79
102
-23
65avg 68
H21/01
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
L
94-102
94
102
-8
no box
H11/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
L
109-116
109
116
-7
no box
A14/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
93-110
93
110
-17
no box
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
109-121
109
121
-12
no box
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
94-110
94
110
-16
no box
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
L
110-115
110
115
-5
no box
H11/04
Commissioners Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
40-17
25-28
10-29
11-30
24-21
19-20
16-22
22-24
21-24
15-17
21-22
26-32
17-20
21-29
16-26
25-27
19-27
34-22
29-30
12-23
28-24
30-28
20-31
31-33
21-24
22-39
25-21
25-26
25-26
26-26
17-32
41-37
26-33
25-29
32-31
11-17
25-26
32-27
24-34
29-28
200.0Avg total
93.8Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)101.5112.3213.8-10.80%
Season at home (3)99.0109.0208.0-10.00%
Season away (3)104.0115.7219.7-11.70%
Last 10 (10)93.8106.2200.0-12.40%
Last 5 (5)103.0114.4217.4-11.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)93.9103.6197.5-9.713%
vs Similar (7)92.695.7188.3-3.129%
vs Weaker (8)94.588.1182.6+6.462%
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -4.4-4.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -4.4-4.4
NLEX Road WarriorsMacau Black Bears
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NLEX Road WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#9
W
55-47
55
47
+8
H01/06
Philippine Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#3
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A06/06
Philippine Cup
NorthPort
#11
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H11/06
Philippine Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#7
L
37-47
37
47
-10
H18/06
Philippine Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#7
W
55-52
55
52
+3
A21/06
Philippine Cup
Blackwater Bossing
#12
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A13/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
57-59
57
59
-2
H15/03
Commissioners Cup
TNT Tropang Giga
#5
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H22/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
54-59
54
59
-5
A27/03
Commissioners Cup
Phoenix Fuelmasters
#8
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H05/04
Commissioners Cup
96.9Avg total
48.7Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.845.192.9+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.845.292.0+1.662%-
Last 30 away (14)48.945.093.9+3.957%-
Last 10 (10)48.748.296.9+0.550%-
Last 5 (5)48.448.897.2-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)43.045.088.0-2.033%-
vs Similar (13)49.247.997.2+1.354%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)48.641.890.5+6.882%-
This opponent (Macau Black Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Macau Black BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
W
65-45
65
45
+20
A14/12
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A17/12
EASL
Taoyuan Pauian Pilots
#3
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H04/01
EASL
Ryukyu
#2
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H21/01
EASL
Converge FiberXers
#9
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H11/03
Commissioners Cup
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
#3
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A14/03
Commissioners Cup
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel
#2
L
43-63
43
63
-20
H20/03
Commissioners Cup
Magnolia Hotshots
#4
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A28/03
Commissioners Cup
San Miguel Beermen
#7
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A31/03
Commissioners Cup
Meralco Bolts
#6
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H11/04
Commissioners Cup
100.2Avg total
49.5Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.048.995.9-1.940%-
Last 30 at home (17)47.149.396.4-2.247%-
Last 30 away (13)46.948.595.4-1.531%-
Last 10 (10)49.550.7100.2-1.250%-
Last 5 (5)52.056.4108.4-4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)48.351.299.5-2.940%-
vs Similar (7)45.447.993.3-2.443%-
vs Weaker (8)46.045.691.6+0.438%-
This opponent (NLEX Road Warriors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
NLEX Road Warriorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

NLEX Road Warriors: 93.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.220.7
47.9%
-41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.011.5
33.8%
-34.5
🏀 Free throws24.517.3
70.6%
-17.3
They take 77.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Macau Black Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Macau Black Bears: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.3 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.320.2
48.8%
-40.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.8
33.3%
-29.5
🏀 Free throws16.011.8
74.0%
-11.8
They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
NLEX Road Warriors
WWLWWLLLWW
Macau Black Bears
LLLLLLLLLL
#1
League position
#11
-6.6
Net rating
-16.2
105.4
Offensive rating
100.6
112.0
Defensive rating
116.8
49.2%
Effective FG%
49.3%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
13.0%
Turnover %
12.8%
23.5%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.8%
3-point %
33.3%
59.3%
Assist %
45.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)60% · 0%
■ NLEX Road Warriors   ■ Macau Black Bears
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
NLEX Road Warriors wins
0
Macau Black Bears wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/26HPhoenix Fuelmasters120-102
27/03/26ABarangay Ginebra San Miguel118-113
22/03/26HTNT Tropang Giga97-103
15/03/26HMagnolia Hotshots112-105
13/03/26ABlackwater Bossing84-81
21/06/25ARain or Shine Elasto Painters92-103
18/06/25HRain or Shine Elasto Painters89-92
11/06/25HNorthPort108-113
06/06/25AMagnolia Hotshots107-99
01/06/25HPhoenix Fuelmasters105-95
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/04/26HMeralco Bolts110-115
31/03/26ASan Miguel Beermen94-110
28/03/26AMagnolia Hotshots109-121
20/03/26HBarangay Ginebra San Miguel93-110
14/03/26ARain or Shine Elasto Painters109-116
11/03/26HConverge FiberXers94-102
21/01/26HRyukyu79-102
04/01/26HTaoyuan Pauian Pilots83-95
17/12/25ARyukyu81-87
14/12/25ATaoyuan Pauian Pilots86-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NLEX Road Warriors
Commissioners Cup 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game106.2109.7101.0
Allowed / game100.8103.397.0
Point differential+5.4+6.3+4.0
Avg total207.0213.0198.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Macau Black Bears
Commissioners Cup 2025
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game101.599.0104.0
Allowed / game112.3109.0115.7
Point differential-10.8-10.0-11.7
Avg total213.8208.0219.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters660100%120.7106.3+14.3
2 Meralco Bolts65183%107.8100.7+7.2
3 NLEX Road Warriors54180%106.2100.8+5.4
4 Barangay Ginebra San Miguel64267%100.795.7+5.0
5 TNT Tropang Giga53260%107.4100.0+7.4
6 Phoenix Fuelmasters63350%104.5100.2+4.3
7 Terrafirma Dyip63350%97.798.2-0.5
8 Magnolia Hotshots73443%101.397.3+4.0
9 San Miguel Beermen73443%102.1106.9-4.7
10 Titan Ultra Giant Risers52340%96.8109.8-13.0
11 Blackwater Bossing51420%91.8105.4-13.6
12 Converge FiberXers61517%98.8106.0-7.2
13 Macau Black Bears6060%101.5112.3-10.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
NLEX Road Warriors28242232106
Macau Black Bears2131261997
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