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North Carolina vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 28 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 91-94 (OT)
34-43 48-39 9-12
Position#111
Record4-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game89.5
Allowed / game77.8
vs
Position#17
Record5-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game66.9
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · North Carolina v Michigan State
27 Nov 2024
NORT91
MICH94
23 Mar 2024
NORT85
MICH69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#94
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H17/03
NCAA
Wagner
#193
W
90-62
90
62
+28
H21/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#154
W
85-69
85
69
+16
H23/03
NCAA
Alabama
#67
L
87-89
87
89
-2
H29/03
NCAA
Elon
#174
W
90-76
90
76
+14
H05/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
89-92
89
92
-3
A09/11
NCAA
American University
#102
W
107-55
107
55
+52
H16/11
NCAA
Hawaii
#218
W
87-69
87
69
+18
A23/11
NCAA
Dayton
#62
W
92-90
92
90
+2
H26/11
NCAA
Auburn
#12
L
72-85
72
85
-13
H27/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-39
36-45
40-28
50-34
40-31
45-38
54-46
33-43
51-39
39-37
38-53
51-39
43-34
64-21
41-34
46-35
33-51
59-39
32-40
40-45
164.6Avg total
87.5Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)89.577.8167.3+11.767%
Season at home (4)90.276.5166.8+13.875%
Season away (2)88.080.5168.5+7.550%
Last 10 (10)87.577.1164.6+10.460%
Last 5 (5)89.478.2167.6+11.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
vs Similar (8)86.579.9166.4+6.675%
vs Weaker (21)81.067.4148.3+13.681%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#8
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A15/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
W
69-51
69
51
+18
A21/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
69-85
69
85
-16
A23/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#299
W
81-57
81
57
+24
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#315
W
96-60
96
60
+36
H08/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H12/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
W
86-72
86
72
+14
H16/11
NCAA
Samford
#61
W
83-75
83
75
+8
H20/11
NCAA
Colorado
#278
W
72-56
72
56
+16
H25/11
NCAA
Memphis
#15
L
63-71
63
71
-8
H26/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-34
35-33
31-24
38-27
31-40
38-45
38-27
43-30
46-39
50-21
24-30
45-47
43-43
43-29
38-28
45-47
38-25
34-31
31-34
32-37
142.1Avg total
75.0Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)78.666.9145.4+11.771%
Season at home (7)78.666.9145.4+11.771%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.067.1142.1+7.960%
Last 5 (5)74.670.2144.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.076.8149.8-3.825%
vs Similar (14)68.767.0135.7+1.757%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)77.564.2141.8+13.275%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +8.7+8.72nd half: +5.6+5.6
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +8.7+8.72nd half: +5.6+5.6
North CarolinaMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#94
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H17/03
NCAA
Wagner
#193
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H21/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#154
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H23/03
NCAA
Alabama
#67
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H29/03
NCAA
Elon
#174
W
51-39
51
39
+12
H05/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A09/11
NCAA
American University
#102
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H16/11
NCAA
Hawaii
#218
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A23/11
NCAA
Dayton
#62
L
33-51
33
51
-18
H26/11
NCAA
Auburn
#12
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H27/11
NCAA
80.7Avg total
41.2Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.535.875.3+3.760%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.436.177.5+5.468%-
Last 30 away (11)36.235.371.5+0.945%-
Last 10 (10)41.239.580.7+1.770%-
Last 5 (5)37.442.479.8-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)32.040.072.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (8)40.940.581.4+0.450%-
vs Weaker (21)39.333.873.1+5.667%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#8
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A15/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
W
31-24
31
24
+7
A21/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#19
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A23/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#299
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#315
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H08/11
NCAA
Kansas
#114
L
24-30
24
30
-6
H12/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H16/11
NCAA
Samford
#61
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H20/11
NCAA
Colorado
#278
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H25/11
NCAA
Memphis
#15
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H26/11
NCAA
67.1Avg total
34.7Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.233.168.2+2.153%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.731.667.3+4.161%-
Last 30 away (12)34.335.269.6-0.942%-
Last 10 (10)34.732.467.1+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)34.832.066.8+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.236.570.8-2.225%-
vs Similar (14)33.833.166.9+0.757%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)37.131.969.0+5.258%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
North Carolina wins
0
Michigan State wins
DateGameScore
23/03/24North Carolina v Michigan State85-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/24HAuburn72-85
26/11/24HDayton92-90
23/11/24AHawaii87-69
16/11/24HAmerican University107-55
09/11/24AKansas89-92
05/11/24HElon90-76
29/03/24HAlabama87-89
23/03/24HMichigan State85-69
21/03/24HWagner90-62
17/03/24HNC State76-84
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/11/24HMemphis63-71
25/11/24HColorado72-56
20/11/24HSamford83-75
16/11/24HBowling Green86-72
12/11/24HKansas69-77
08/11/24HNiagara96-60
05/11/24HMonmouth81-57
23/03/24ANorth Carolina69-85
21/03/24AMississippi St.69-51
15/03/24APurdue62-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL67%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %67%75%50%
Points / game89.590.288.0
Allowed / game77.876.580.5
Point differential+11.7+13.8+7.5
Avg total167.3166.8168.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Michigan State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL71%
HomeLWWWL71%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games77-
Win %71%71%-
Points / game78.678.6-
Allowed / game66.966.9-
Point differential+11.7+11.7-
Avg total145.4145.4-
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%57%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 NC State550100%82.663.0+19.6
2 Florida State87188%79.164.0+15.1
3 Pittsburgh76186%84.363.1+21.1
4 Clemson76186%78.463.6+14.9
5 Stanford76186%78.064.9+13.1
6 Wake Forest76186%72.966.3+6.6
7 Boston College76186%71.365.3+6.0
8 California65183%79.773.8+5.8
9 Louisville54180%82.662.4+20.2
10 SMU Mustangs75271%88.173.4+14.7
11 Duke64267%82.560.3+22.2
12 North Carolina64267%89.577.8+11.7
13 Notre Dame64267%82.571.2+11.3
14 Syracuse64267%81.078.3+2.7
15 Virginia64267%61.361.7-0.3
16 Miami (FL)63350%84.572.7+11.8
17 Georgia Tech63350%79.575.7+3.8
18 Virginia Tech73443%69.370.1-0.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wisconsin770100%86.971.6+15.3
2 Oregon770100%81.166.9+14.3
3 UCLA76186%79.652.4+27.1
4 Maryland76186%85.458.7+26.7
5 Penn State76186%91.968.0+23.9
6 Michigan76186%80.960.1+20.7
7 Iowa76186%87.470.9+16.6
8 Illinois65183%89.058.8+30.2
9 Ohio State65183%85.259.3+25.8
10 Northwestern65183%74.361.3+13.0
11 Nebraska65183%80.067.3+12.7
12 Purdue65183%79.867.7+12.2
13 Rutgers65183%80.770.7+10.0
14 USC65183%79.770.5+9.2
15 Minnesota65183%64.057.2+6.8
16 Indiana54180%77.466.8+10.6
17 Washington43175%70.866.2+4.5
18 Michigan State75271%78.666.9+11.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
North Carolina3448991
Michigan State43391294
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