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North Carolina vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 23 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 85-69
40-31 45-38
Position#19
Record28-7
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game70.0
North Carolina 🏆
USA
vs
Michigan State
USA
Position#154
Record20-14
FormWLWLW
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game65.5
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · North Carolina v Michigan State
27 Nov 2024
NORT91
MICH94
23 Mar 2024
NORT85
MICH69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#161
W
96-81
96
81
+15
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A24/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
75-71
75
71
+4
H27/02
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
79-70
79
70
+9
H02/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
84-51
84
51
+33
H06/03
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A09/03
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
92-67
92
67
+25
H14/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
W
72-65
72
65
+7
H15/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H17/03
NCAA
Wagner
#193
W
90-62
90
62
+28
H21/03
NCAA
1H
2H
50-39
46-42
26-16
28-28
37-32
38-39
37-45
42-25
41-25
43-26
40-31
44-48
46-30
46-37
33-35
39-30
40-39
36-45
40-28
50-34
147.6Avg total
80.2Scored
67.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)81.770.0151.7+11.780%
Season at home (22)86.570.5157.0+15.986%
Season away (13)73.769.1142.8+4.669%
Last 10 (10)80.267.4147.6+12.890%
Last 5 (5)82.871.4154.2+11.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)76.087.0163.0-11.00%
vs Similar (7)83.975.4159.3+8.486%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)80.567.9148.4+12.782%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn State
#216
W
80-72
80
72
+8
A14/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
73-63
73
63
+10
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
L
71-78
71
78
-7
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H25/02
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
74-80
74
80
-6
A03/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H07/03
NCAA
Indiana
#153
L
64-65
64
65
-1
A10/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A15/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
W
69-51
69
51
+18
A21/03
NCAA
1H
2H
45-31
35-41
39-37
34-26
33-45
38-33
32-22
25-38
35-38
39-42
20-25
33-24
29-34
35-31
32-34
45-33
27-34
35-33
31-24
38-27
133.2Avg total
68.0Scored
65.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)73.065.5138.5+7.559%
Season at home (22)75.763.4139.0+12.373%
Season away (12)68.169.4137.5-1.333%
Last 10 (10)68.065.2133.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)65.059.8124.8+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)72.874.0146.8-1.225%
vs Similar (17)69.066.8135.8+2.253%
vs Weaker (9)81.059.7140.7+21.389%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +7.0+7.01st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +2.9+2.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +7.0+7.01st half: -0.1-0.12nd half2nd half: +5.8+5.82nd half: +2.9+2.9
North CarolinaMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#161
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H17/02
NCAA
Virginia
#66
W
26-16
26
16
+10
A24/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#246
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H27/02
NCAA
NC State
#94
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H02/03
NCAA
Notre Dame
#291
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H06/03
NCAA
Duke
#32
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A09/03
NCAA
Florida State
#196
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H14/03
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#69
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H15/03
NCAA
NC State
#94
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H17/03
NCAA
Wagner
#193
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H21/03
NCAA
71.0Avg total
39.0Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.134.273.3+4.957%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.834.476.1+7.465%-
Last 30 away (13)35.633.969.5+1.746%-
Last 10 (10)39.032.071.0+7.080%-
Last 5 (5)39.832.672.4+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.044.083.0-5.00%-
vs Similar (7)40.134.674.7+5.657%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)38.833.672.4+5.259%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn State
#216
W
45-31
45
31
+14
A14/02
NCAA
Michigan
#347
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#162
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#123
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A03/03
NCAA
Northwestern
#86
L
20-25
20
25
-5
H07/03
NCAA
Indiana
#153
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A10/03
NCAA
Minnesota
#163
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A15/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
W
31-24
31
24
+7
A21/03
NCAA
64.7Avg total
32.3Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.330.365.6+5.060%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.727.563.2+8.267%-
Last 30 away (12)34.634.569.1+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)32.332.464.7-0.140%-
Last 5 (5)27.830.258.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)34.036.570.5-2.525%-
vs Similar (17)33.431.765.1+1.659%-
vs Weaker (9)39.424.964.3+14.678%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
North Carolina wins
0
Michigan State wins
No previous meetings.
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/24HWagner90-62
17/03/24HNC State76-84
15/03/24HPittsburgh72-65
14/03/24HFlorida State92-67
09/03/24ADuke84-79
06/03/24HNotre Dame84-51
02/03/24HNC State79-70
27/02/24HMiami (FL)75-71
24/02/24AVirginia54-44
17/02/24HVirginia Tech96-81
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/24AMississippi St.69-51
15/03/24APurdue62-67
14/03/24HMinnesota77-67
10/03/24AIndiana64-65
07/03/24HNorthwestern53-49
03/03/24APurdue74-80
25/02/24HOhio State57-60
21/02/24HIowa71-78
18/02/24AMichigan73-63
14/02/24APenn State80-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLWLWW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games352213
Win %80%86%69%
Points / game81.786.573.7
Allowed / game70.070.569.1
Point differential+11.7+15.9+4.6
Avg total151.7157.0142.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%59%46%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)33% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Michigan State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW59%
HomeWLLWW73%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games342212
Win %59%73%33%
Points / game73.075.768.1
Allowed / game65.563.469.4
Point differential+7.5+12.3-1.3
Avg total138.5139.0137.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%59%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)33% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %3%5%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Carolina3528780%81.770.0+11.7
2 Duke3325876%79.466.8+12.5
3 Virginia34231168%62.959.8+3.1
4 Pittsburgh33221167%75.667.6+8.0
5 Clemson33221167%77.470.8+6.5
6 SMU Mustangs32201262%76.367.8+8.5
7 Syracuse32201262%76.375.6+0.7
8 NC State37231462%76.572.5+3.9
9 Wake Forest33201361%78.270.5+7.7
10 Virginia Tech32181456%75.071.1+3.9
11 Boston College34191556%74.672.1+2.5
12 Florida State33171652%76.576.3+0.2
13 Miami (FL)33151845%75.473.6+1.8
14 Stanford32141844%76.376.5-0.1
15 Georgia Tech32141844%71.075.2-4.2
16 California32131941%74.077.0-3.1
17 Notre Dame33132039%64.067.2-3.1
18 Louisville3282425%72.079.1-7.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Purdue3430488%83.269.6+13.7
2 Illinois3527877%84.473.7+10.8
3 Oregon35241169%75.771.9+3.8
4 Nebraska34231168%77.770.9+6.8
5 Northwestern33221167%73.868.9+4.9
6 Wisconsin36221461%74.770.0+4.7
7 Ohio State33201361%74.969.5+5.4
8 Michigan State34201459%73.065.5+7.5
9 Indiana33191458%72.374.3-2.0
10 Iowa32181456%82.979.0+3.9
11 Minnesota32181456%75.471.8+3.7
12 Washington32171553%80.677.1+3.5
13 Maryland33161748%69.065.9+3.2
14 Penn State33161748%75.173.4+1.7
15 UCLA33161748%66.065.5+0.5
16 Rutgers32151747%65.466.5-1.2
17 USC33151845%74.174.3-0.2
18 Michigan3282425%72.979.0-6.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina404585
Michigan State313869
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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