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NC State vs North Carolina Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 82-58
42-26 40-32
Position#128
Record18-8
FormWWWLL
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game74.4
NC State 🏆
USA
vs
North Carolina
USA
Position#45
Record20-5
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.8
Allowed / game70.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · NC State v North Carolina
15 Dec 2026
NC S v NORT
upcoming
17 Feb 2026
NC S82
NORT58
11 Jan 2025
NC S61
NORT63
10 Jan 2024
NC S54
NORT67
19 Feb 2023
NC S77
NORT69
26 Feb 2022
NC S74
NORT84
22 Dec 2020
NC S79
NORT76
27 Jan 2020
NC S65
NORT75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NC State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
North Carolina winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
113-69
113
69
+44
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
77-118
77
118
-41
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
76-77
76
77
-1
H14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
56-31
57-38
35-34
39-44
38-33
31-36
34-33
47-39
41-37
47-31
49-31
47-47
34-42
50-41
36-24
46-49
36-56
41-62
42-37
34-40
164.3Avg total
85.1Scored
79.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)85.074.4159.3+10.669%
Season at home (16)84.269.5153.8+14.869%
Season away (10)86.182.2168.3+3.970%
Last 10 (10)85.179.2164.3+5.970%
Last 5 (5)83.085.8168.8-2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)74.090.5164.5-16.550%
vs Similar ◀ (15)78.077.1155.1+0.947%
vs Weaker (13)88.868.6157.4+20.285%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
85-80
85
80
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-75
91
75
+16
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
66-75
66
75
-9
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
79-65
79
65
+14
H14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
49-38
38-46
47-45
43-50
37-54
41-30
42-33
49-36
34-43
51-37
52-37
39-38
46-32
41-45
29-41
42-27
40-43
26-32
46-32
33-33
159.7Avg total
82.5Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)81.870.4152.2+11.480%
Season at home (16)84.865.4150.2+19.3100%
Season away (9)76.679.3155.9-2.844%
Last 10 (10)82.577.2159.7+5.370%
Last 5 (5)78.872.0150.8+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.071.0142.0+0.050%
vs Similar ◀ (15)77.070.9147.9+6.167%
vs Weaker (13)86.368.0154.3+18.392%
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: +2.9+2.9
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +1.2+1.22nd half: +2.9+2.9
NC StateNorth Carolina
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#167
W
56-31
56
31
+25
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
36-56
36
56
-20
A10/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/02
NCAA
75.9Avg total
40.1Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.434.072.4+4.470%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.131.570.6+7.582%-
Last 30 away (13)37.637.274.8+0.454%-
Last 10 (10)40.135.875.9+4.380%-
Last 5 (5)39.438.077.4+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.043.078.0-8.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)34.634.969.5-0.347%-
vs Weaker (13)43.431.675.0+11.8100%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
52-37
52
37
+15
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H03/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H07/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A11/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H14/02
NCAA
82.0Avg total
42.2Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.034.773.7+4.467%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.131.872.9+9.388%-
Last 30 away (13)36.338.474.7-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)42.239.882.0+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)42.637.079.6+5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)26.543.069.5-16.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)36.634.971.5+1.747%-
vs Weaker (13)43.833.176.8+10.7100%-
This opponent (NC State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
NC State wins
8
North Carolina wins
DateGameScore
20/02/25North Carolina v NC State97-73
11/01/25NC State v North Carolina61-63
17/03/24North Carolina v NC State76-84
02/03/24North Carolina v NC State79-70
11/01/24NC State v North Carolina54-67
19/02/23NC State v North Carolina77-69
21/01/23North Carolina v NC State80-69
26/02/22NC State v North Carolina74-84
29/01/22North Carolina v NC State100-80
23/01/21North Carolina v NC State86-76
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26HMiami (FL)76-77
10/02/26ALouisville77-118
07/02/26HVirginia Tech82-73
04/02/26ASMU Mustangs84-83
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
21/01/26AClemson80-76 OT
17/01/26HGeorgia Tech74-78
10/01/26AFlorida State113-69
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26HPittsburgh79-65
11/02/26AMiami (FL)66-75
07/02/26HDuke71-68
03/02/26HSyracuse87-77
31/01/26AGeorgia Tech91-75
24/01/26AVirginia85-80
22/01/26HNotre Dame91-69
17/01/26ACalifornia78-84
15/01/26AStanford90-95
10/01/26HWake Forest87-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL69%
HomeLLWWL69%
AwayWWWWL70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261610
Win %69%69%70%
Points / game85.084.286.1
Allowed / game74.469.582.2
Point differential+10.6+14.8+3.9
Avg total159.3153.8168.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%56%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %8%6%10%
North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %80%100%44%
Points / game81.884.876.6
Allowed / game70.465.479.3
Point differential+11.4+19.3-2.8
Avg total152.2150.2155.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%88%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)100% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2624292%83.063.2+19.8
2 Virginia2622485%80.368.9+11.5
3 Miami (FL)2520580%83.670.1+13.5
4 North Carolina2520580%81.870.4+11.4
5 Clemson2620677%74.864.7+10.1
6 Louisville2519676%86.970.9+16.0
7 NC State2618869%85.074.4+10.6
8 California2618869%79.073.0+6.0
9 SMU Mustangs2517868%86.277.6+8.6
10 Virginia Tech2617965%79.274.7+4.4
11 Stanford26161062%75.472.5+2.9
12 Syracuse27151256%76.073.2+2.8
13 Wake Forest25131252%79.777.0+2.7
14 Florida State26131350%80.378.2+2.2
15 Notre Dame26121446%74.773.4+1.2
16 Georgia Tech26111542%74.576.3-1.8
17 Pittsburgh2691735%69.971.8-1.8
18 Boston College2691735%67.669.7-2.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
NC State424082
North Carolina263258
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